famartin Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS says no... EC says slop-fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Misunderstood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 What's the point in forecasting if there is no "forecasting"? Most of the storms we end up saying "it doesn't matter what the model says, it's now casting time" anyway. Wish casting or not, if the models show a threat then discuss it. It's good reading and perhaps one of these years we will get a weather forecast worth a **** instead of flipping a coin. Well, this is a discussion thread. I wasn't forecasting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Haha okay, that's odd. I didn't see "February" when I replied, so it said "Potential Storm 12-13-2014" and I thought it was a crack at the last time this thread was started then deleted, therefor poking fun at fantasy runs 7 days out. My apologies! Discussion on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS says no... EC says slop-fest. I'm in for some snow. Hoping the timeframe is early enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 0z ECM is borderline temps for the 13th either 4" snow, mixed slop or ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 And like clockwork this winter we have lost the signal for a blockbuster that was once there. Looks like a typical 2-5" type slop system ending as rain....avg system for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 And if this one doesn't work out we always have the pd storm popping up on the models ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 And if this one doesn't work out we always have the pd storm popping up on the models ;-) OT for this thread, but would there be enough cold air around to support snow for that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 OT for this thread, but would there be enough cold air around to support snow for that one?as modeled right now, probably. But we are in the beginning of a major pattern shift so phl may be losing its snow capital of the region status :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 as modeled right now, probably. But we are in the beginning of a major pattern shift so phl may be losing its snow capital of the region status :-/ The handwriting's been on the wall lately, but it would be nice to wrap up this stretch with another snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z ECM maintains close to 0z scenario, about .10" less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z ECM maintains close to 0z scenario, about .10" less qpf. It's a touch colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 7 out 10 times when it snows in Memphis six inches, be prepared for a big storm in the mid atlantic of 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ^ what does this have to do with next weeks system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 7 out 10 times when it snows in Memphis six inches, be prepared for a big storm in the mid atlantic of 6-12 An interesting statement that I think I've heard before, so I decided to investigate. MEM has only had 20 events with 5.5" or more of snow since 1885. None of them have occurred since 1988. Out of those 20, PHL has had 6" or more of snow following or coinciding with a 6" or greater event in Memphis exactly twice. Meanwhile, there were six times when no measurable snow fell at PHL. So, your statement is categorically false. At PHL, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 An interesting statement that I think I've heard before, so I decided to investigate. MEM has only had 20 events with 5.5" or more of snow since 1885. None of them have occurred since 1988. Out of those 20, PHL has had 6" or more of snow following or coinciding with a 6" or greater event in Memphis exactly twice. Meanwhile, there were six times when no measurable snow fell at PHL. So, your statement is categorically false. At PHL, anyway. please try ABE, I live closer to ABE. I should have said ABE instaed of mid-atlantic. my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 please try ABE, I live closer to ABE. I should have said ABE instaed of mid-atlantic. my bad Shorter period of record: 3 out of 9 saw 6" or more at ABE. 3 more still had no measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z ECM west of 12z, 8" snow lehigh valley, 4" N&W burbs before a changeover 50 miles east and we get pummeled, next up ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 6z gfs just took another jump towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 awkward choo-choo train path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think this one has good chance to be the biggest snow event for NW Chesco this year....that said I think it is the classic heavy snow for this areas with by the time 850s get to abv 0c we are left with some ZR to end 0z ECM west of 12z, 8" snow lehigh valley, 4" N&W burbs before a changeover 50 miles east and we get pummeled, next up ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z ECM west of 12z, 8" snow lehigh valley, 4" N&W burbs before a changeover 50 miles east and we get pummeled, next up ensembles Ensemble mean track was further east. 06 DGEX is a weenie dream run on that general track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Northern stream kicker is to strong on the 12Z GFS sending storm OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Northern stream kicker is to strong on the 12Z GFS sending storm OTS. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Which is exactly where it likes to be at this range.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z GGEM has a February 2006 HECS repeat, a happy medium between the GFS and ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 UK at 72hrs coming together nicely down south and to my eyes looks like the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z ECM east of 0z, big dog incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 aaaaand the board crashed...I guess that means its gonna be a long week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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