40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This is called trolling. As opposed to when you grammatically picked apart my sentence the other day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This interior upstate NYer agrees with you 100%. These systems have really failed us so far this year. Agreement from here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I get that, but some were suggesting we were 4-5 days out, to bolster their point. We are not 4-5 days out, that is all I'm trying to say. It is fragile but it is interesting and hope-producing that so much guidance is improving today, especially given that this timeframe has been flagged 10 days in advance. Unlike todays supposed system, we are well under 5 days. Of course it could still flop... I will resist my temptation to go any further into what is seen as trolling and what is not. I will take it to the banter thread. I am optimisitic for our storm that starts in less than 96 hours. I believe the signal is multi-day, multi-source, and persistent. It depends what model you use...the Canadian and GFS don't even start the thng until later Thursday morning (that is more than 4 days after the 12z model initialization)...Euro is sooner. Also are we talking about the meat ofthe storm or the first weenie flakes? I think too many here get annoyed when there's a big storm on the models where some legit uncertainty is involved, but some of us do not want to go balls to the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's pointless in the context I was using it...just the fact that it was still several days out. Whether we want to argue if it is 87 hours out or 96 hours out or 93 hours out, it does not matter to the uncertainty aspect right now. Also talking about start time that far out isn't going to be very accurate. It's usually something that becomes more clear within 48 hours. Right now, it could be anywhere between Wednesday night and late Thursday morning. Seems it could be another morning rush nightmare like the last one...very early, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It depends what model you use...the Canadian and GFS don't even start the thng until later Thursday morning (that is more than 4 days after the 12z model initialization)...Euro is sooner. Also are we talking about the meat ofthe storm or the first weenie flakes? I think too many here get annoyed when there's a big storm on the models where some legit uncertainty is involved, but some of us do not want to go balls to the wall. All I have to say is I still like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lol wether its 70 hrs or 100 hrs out doesnt change the fact pros see this as low confidence Cross your weenie for another 60 hrs and hope for continuity or at least models coming back to today's solutions . Im not sure when we could have high confidence in this set up....maybe 0z tues if models dont waffle much till then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 As opposed to when you grammatically picked apart my sentence the other day? Context is everything here, in case you haven't figure that out. You need to pick and choose your words wisely, otherwise they'll be used against you. Sorry for trying to help you out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hell you do this for a living - I wouldn't go balls to the wall either! But as a hobbyist and watcher, this one has some real stuff going for it. I don't have to put myself on the line to clients or the public. Sometimes, some get a bit antsy and over wrought in the defense of their conservatism on systems. That's not you - you are as straight up as they come. In the broader picture here there are some mets and mods who troll but it isn't seen that way. They are as negative nelly as some of us are uber optimistic. 0Z will start to separate the men and women from the boys and girls. But I like the trends! It depends what model you use...the Canadian and GFS don't even start the thng until later Thursday morning (that is more than 4 days after the 12z model initialization)...Euro is sooner. Also are we talking about the meat ofthe storm or the first weenie flakes? I think too many here get annoyed when there's a big storm on the models where some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lol wether its 70 hrs or 100 hrs out doesnt change the fact pros see this as low confidence Cross your weenie for another 60 hrs and hope for continuity or at least models coming back to today's solutions . Im not sure when we could have high confidence in this set up....maybe 0z tues if models dont waffle much till then . I'm not I agree with low confidence, I would say ptype might be the biggest issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm not I agree with low confidence, I would say ptype might be the biggest issue. That's part of the low confidence...for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's part of the low confidence...for a snowstorm. well there are different aspects, I guess higher confidence of storm, less confidence on ptype, but it sounded like he felt there was a high confidence of OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I get that, but some were suggesting we were 4-5 days out, to bolster their point. We are not 4-5 days out, that is all I'm trying to say. It is fragile but it is interesting and hope-producing that so much guidance is improving today, especially given that this timeframe has been flagged 10 days in advance. Unlike todays supposed system, we are well under 5 days. Of course it could still flop... I will resist my temptation to go any further into what is seen as trolling and what is not. I will take it to the banter thread. I am optimisitic for our storm that starts in less than 96 hours. I believe the signal is multi-day, multi-source, and persistent. This makes no sense at all to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's part of the low confidence...for a snowstorm. Or the kicker come in sooner and we miss a storm all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @84 gfs looks better, stronger also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's part of the low confidence...for a snowstorm.ExactlyOr what Bob just said (i.e 12z gfs) Will, now for a sorta weenie question What is the upper potential of this system...qpf wise/ duration ball park if u could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Or the kicker come in sooner and we miss a storm all together. Yep either scenario can happen. I'll say that confidence has definitely increased since yesterday, but still relatively low at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This makes no sense at all to me. 24+24+24=72 72+12=84 84+9 =93 overnight Wednesday is 87-93 9Z thurs is 93 4 days = 96 5 days = 120 This system is quite possibly under 4 days from the 12z data run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NNE toaster (all region actually) on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Exactly Or what Bob just said (i.e 12z gfs) Will, now for a sorta weenie question What is the upper potential of this system...qpf wise/ duration ball park if u could 1.25-1.5 qpf 7 day total from hpc would = 12-20 depending on ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NNE toaster (all region actually) on gfs. GFS acting up again.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Exactly Or what Bob just said (i.e 12z gfs) Will, now for a sorta weenie question What is the upper potential of this system...qpf wise/ duration ball park if u could It could def a be a nice storm if everything goes right. Prob 12"+ jack region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Coast brushed sne with lt snow only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NNE toaster (all region actually) on gfs. from bermuda to a toaster in 24 hours? toss it. edit: i see you meant toaster in the tub, not in the upper levels. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 from bermuda to a toaster in 24 hours? toss it. edit: i see you meant toaster in the tub, not in the upper levels. lol No. It's trending east and that's what this run shows. Ecmwf went way east. Now gfs is bit it may not be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Personally, the fact that this isn't modeled over ALB right now is a bad sign for this part of New England....my gut is telling me we may be seeing those 3-5 day out amped up solutions we've seen several times this winter. The trend this year in the final 48 hours has been for slightly more progressive solutions as the models get a better handle on the fast flow. If be open to changing that stance if someone had a good reason for why this would become more amped and further NW in reach...but with a kicker system coming in the northern stream and no real phasing, I'm leaning more progressive and east. Should be interesting to watch it play out. This interior upstate NYer agrees with you 100%. These systems have really failed us so far this year. Agreement from here as well. Add me to the list as well. I've been missing or getting fringed by coastals ever since the 10/29/11 debacle buried this area under 20"+. In fact, I've not had a double digit storm total since then. Personally, I'd much rather have a 00z Euro solution than the 12z one. 00z Euro was a bit too far west even for here, but at least we would get front ended and get a decent amount of snow before precip type issues were to occur. The 12z is too far east and we miss the comma head stuff. Of course the 12z GGEM is a dreamy solution for the Berkshires with an epic death band and huge amounts of QPF as snow, but I will echo what others have said in that this is a very delicate setup synoptically because of the upstream kicker issue. It's time this area had a pounding snowstorm while BOS and E MA get dryslotted and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No. It's trending east and that's what this run shows. Ecmwf went way east. Now gfs is bit it may not be right. That can't happen because then I will look really bad. EC ensembles didn't go that far east did they? CMC and UK go east? Nocraps? JMA? Korean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That can't happen because then I will look really bad. EC ensembles didn't go that far east did they? CMC and UK go east? Nocraps? JMA? Korean? If you want to stack the little league team of cmc/Korean/jma/navgem to booster your argument be my guest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If you want to stack the little league team of cmc/Korean/jma/navgem to booster your argument be my guest. the little team that could? actually perhaps we are doing that thing where everything comes back to the middle...over correct east then come back west. And of course the shortwaves haven't been properly sampled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Look how quick that low moves in off to the west on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's time this area had a pounding snowstorm while BOS and E MA get dryslotted and rain. We don't ever wish your area to be brushed while we pound away here in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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