CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Every op run of every major model has snow to the coast. Take notice Those who use op runs for a D5 forecast beware! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Those who use op runs for a D5 forecast beware!How is Wed nite day 5 though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 How is Wed nite day 5 though? just 12 hours ago the OP Euro had the heaviest band into western NY. 12 hours later it's between boston and cape cod. Meh...wake me up in 24 hours. Powderfreak went from the joy of victory to the agony of defeat in only 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GYX saying I PREFER TO STAY AWAY FROM HIGHLIKELY POP OF THE ECMWF FORECAST...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP CHANCEPOP...WITH HIGHER PROBS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE FORECAST IS VERYUNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT THE ECMWF HAS HAD A BIAS THISWINTER TENDING TOWARDS SLOWING THE FLOW DOWN TOO MUCH AND ALLOWINGTHESE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Barry Burbank's forecast says that snow is probable on Thursday. No mention of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GYX saying That sounds reasonable, give it another day or so to bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So, not elevation only? I think there will be issues at the coast.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The antecedent airmass is absolutely putrid. While confidence in some kind of storm is higher... boy... it would have to be a perfect bomb to bring snow to many. A lot of the GEFS that have a good look are absolute furnaces aloft. I know you are forecasting for SNE but this antecedent airmass looks quite good not too far north of the mass border. This is CON and Hookset zones. TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND ZERO. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS 10 TO 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nah,,... this time of year, with rotted ("putrid") air masses, if they are within a stone's throw of freezing the column will more typically end up in an isothermal blue snow. Did you guys see that frankenmodel DGEX from 06 z... ? I don't have a lot of experience with that model but it was cold! Also, the 12z UKMET looks like a classic 9-12 hour coastal storm, p-type aside, but I suspect it is cold enough. Interesting that there is some suggestion overall that the N-stream 'kicker' impulse may also bring it's own fun; though I suspect that it really just prolongs (norluny) instability -- subject to change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ensembles almost identical to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This looks like a mainly snow event off the cape in the euro suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ensembles pass over the BM and east of CC. A little quicker and NE of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ensembles almost identical to the op. Looks like it goes just east of the elbow. Maybe a hair more amped than the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like it goes just east of the elbow. Maybe a hair more amped than the op? Was less wrapped up than the op to me. Euro op had the classic tuck in before occluding and sliding NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like it goes just east of the elbow. Maybe a hair more amped than the op? Temps look identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Was less wrapped up than the op to me. Euro op had the classic tuck in before occluding and sliding NE. Not that it matters anyways at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Was less wrapped up than the op to me. Euro op had the classic tuck in before occluding and sliding NE.I see it every 12h on model lab, so I wasn't sure. Good spot for 102 hours out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What is the surface low pressure for the EURO ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I see it every 12h on model lab, so I wasn't sure. Good spot for 102 hours out. Sent from my iPhone But overall track was similar. We'll see how it goes from here on out. It's a dicey setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What is the surface low pressure for the EURO ensembles? 992 as it passes east of the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ensembles pass over the BM and east of CC. A little quicker and NE of the op. So that suggests benchmark but keeping a substantial northerly component? That is what the qpf maps have been suggesting. That gets the storm in the gom and really helps out up here and over by your vacation home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So that suggests benchmark but keeping a substantial northerly component? That is what the qpf maps have been suggesting. That gets the storm in the gom and really helps out up here and over by your vacation home. This seems like a system that will travel up to the benchmark and then just east of CHH. I think at the benchmark it could be down to 975mb and then sub 970mb as it passes CHH. With the ensemble mean near 992mb chances are that this is a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GYX saying still cautious but more optimisitic in the update now: But the EC is a moderate snowstorm for us? I can't imagine that 992 near CC is 6 inches or less. Scooter caution flags affecting gyx (but probably prudent) THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS GIVING MAINE AND NH AT LEAST A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER AND MORE AMPED ECMWF. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF AN IMPORTANT UPSTREAM KICKER IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ARE STILL PRESENT. EVEN JUST MINOR VARIATIONS IN SPEED AND AMPLIFICATION/STRENGTH OF THESE TWO PLAYERS CAN VERY EASILY CAUSE A VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOME THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TODAY. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN LOW TRACK...STRENGTH AND CERTAINLY THE RESULTANT QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WOULD GIVE THE COASTAL PLAIN A MODERATE SNOWFALL THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS WOULD BE LIGHTER THAN THAT AS IT HAS A MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION. THE 12Z UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...AND THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL HAS A BLIZZARD FOR MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IS STILL IN THE CARDS...BUT CONTINUE TO LIKE THE ECMWF THE BEST ATTM AS IT SEEMS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's a solid winter storm warning for all SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 But am I missing something about the antecedent airmass? We are having a CAA day on Tuesday up here - is that not translating into SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 But am I missing something about the antecedent airmass? We are having a CAA day on Tuesday up here - is that not translating into SNE? Yes. But it's retreating everywhere by the time the storm comes. Nevertheless, today's modeling looks cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's a solid winter storm warning for all if SNE. Hopefully Ryan steps off the ledge Meteorology not modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Both point to all snow OK. You're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 OK. You're right. sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 sigh Some things will never change I guess. Anyway - it's nice to see the Euro Ensembles on the general storm idea. The synoptics are iffy at best but it would be nice to sneak out a good snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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