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Feb 13-15 modeled event increased confidence now.


Typhoon Tip

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I like the idea of a storm as modeled, but the track is very tough to determine. We'll see what the euro ensembles show, but this is one of those situations where if we wiggle a few features here or there..the outcome for New England is quite different.

Yeah this is not set in stone. 500mb remains progressive, too. I'm not a huge fan of this set up personally, but could see SNE get in on the action.

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I like the idea of a storm as modeled, but the track is very tough to determine. We'll see what the euro ensembles show, but this is one of those situations where if we wiggle a few features here or there..the outcome for New England is quite different.

The individual GEFS members appeared absolutely all over the place. The mean probably ends up looking semi-decent but man there's everything from wound up rainstorms to literally nothing to coastal plain snowstorms.

This seems like one of those precarious situations where ensemble means look one way but may be getting skewed by timing differences and members that have nothing or a huge wrapped up low with it being +3C at Montreal and snowing in North Carolina.

It looks like a larger than normal spread.

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The individual GEFS members appeared absolutely all over the place. The mean probably ends up looking semi-decent but man there's everything from wound up rainstorms to literally nothing to coastal plain snowstorms.

This seems like one of those precarious situations where ensemble means look one way but may be getting skewed by timing differences and members that have nothing or a huge wrapped up low with it being +3C at Montreal and snowing in North Carolina.

It looks like a larger than normal spread.

 

Yes which is why I won't worry about it, spend much time on it or begin to plan for it until later Monday night.  This is the window where threats have morphed a couple of times in the drop from 5 towards 3-4 days.

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The antecedent airmass is absolutely putrid. While confidence in some kind of storm is higher... boy... it would have to be a perfect bomb to bring snow to many.

A lot of the GEFS that have a good look are absolute furnaces aloft.

A lot of the members that have the coastal storm and precip seem to do it with 850s above 0C.

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The antecedent airmass is absolutely putrid. While confidence in some kind of storm is higher... boy... it would have to be a perfect bomb to bring snow to many. 

 

A lot of the GEFS that have a good look are absolute furnaces aloft. 

 

This is what's worrisome and no model is showing strong HP to magically appear over Quebec/Ontario.  We'll be relying on a near perfect storm and track to bring much of SNE the goods.  Still nice to see a storm modeled and better than a slowly eroding pack under clear skies.

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