RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 a 24hr bomb though....gonna be some nice jacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm a little confused at how it handles the QPF. It sort of comes up in one blob and then splits apart with the WCB stuff heading offshore and then just some CCB/deformation stuff before getting enhanced as H5 closes off. Seems a little weird to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS suspiciously warm. Still a little ragged with the precip shield. Looks near or just east of ACK. Likely related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS looks too warm to me. Track looks similar to the NAM, just a touch faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Uncle less wrapped and colder. Seems to come close to keeping BOS snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie shifted SE and not as wound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it isn't going to raincrappy low level stuff for a while then boom as ULL just crashes heights. Probably a lt rain for me and snow grains for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 OK, depending on which model I look at, I'll either get nailed or rained on. The joy of RI weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Uncle less wrapped and colder. Seems to come close to keeping BOS snow. It kind of had to come SE considering how far west it was vs other guidance. But its a pretty nice solution. Prob some taint back to 495 but its still a big storm even for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 closed mid level systems SE of me resulting in drizzle. ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie has a bit of a cstl hugger look, but it looks like it tries to do a NAM and sort of occlude/redevelop to the ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm a little confused at how it handles the QPF. It sort of comes up in one blob and then splits apart with the WCB stuff heading offshore and then just some CCB/deformation stuff before getting enhanced as H5 closes off. Seems a little weird to me. It's because of the loop de doop. Low is going to try to run north before getting kicked ene or ne as it bombs. Gfs is flattening that curve. But we also have to remember we've had very few super lows work out this far sw. Most end up being diffuse before going nuts at our 41/42. Euro prob comes towards consensus today. I like the same outline for the heaviest and suspect it shifts east still to out south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro snow maps have 20-24 over a tremendous area Remember that those Euro maps spit out snow whenever the temp at or below freezing. Doesn't account for mixing, hence the 12-18" in and around ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Likely related. It is...that's why we want this to develop rapidly to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie shifted SE and not as wound Prob still a powderfreak jackpot on it, lol. But it def cooled off a shade and went a little SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie must go near cape Cod because it ends up near the downeast ME coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm a little confused at how it handles the QPF. It sort of comes up in one blob and then splits apart with the WCB stuff heading offshore and then just some CCB/deformation stuff before getting enhanced as H5 closes off. Seems a little weird to me. Probably best to focus on the features and trust the QPF will be there. If you build it they will come? People under that deformation may do better with their 0.50" QPF than those with 1.00" QPF and crappy snow growth on the wrong side of the mid level warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 closed mid level systems SE of me resulting in drizzle. ok. Hehe...yea and qpf printouts can suck it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably best to focus on the features and trust the QPF will be there. If you build it they will come? People under that deformation may do better with their 0.50" QPF than those with 1.00" QPF and crappy snow growth on the wrong side of the mid level warm front. I always look at those mid level features....I could care less about QPF when the 700mb warm front is just south of me...but it's just a weird look on the GFS. It always seems to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie must go near cape Cod because it ends up near the downeast ME coast. Too bad its prob too whacked out at the end...because if it did that, we'd get a Dec 9, 2005-esque finale in east-central MA...probably like a deathband commahead that goes N-S or even almost curling NNW/SSE. At least it didn't go into NYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS argues for taint even out my way... not for long, but it might be raining/sleeting for a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Remember that those Euro maps spit out snow whenever the temp at or below freezing. Doesn't account for mixing, hence the 12-18" in and around ATL.Euro temp profiles in and to the west of DC are pure snow, the Atlanta stuff is bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it isn't going to rain remember my tweet from yesterday...Tolland Taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro temp profiles in and to the west of DC are pure snow, the Atlanta stuff is bunk. Oh yeah, west of DC is game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Too bad its prob too whacked out at the end...because if it did that, we'd get a Dec 9, 2005-esque finale in east-central MA...probably like a deathband commahead that goes N-S or even almost curling NNW/SSE. At least it didn't go into NYC this run. LOL, I agree though. I find that final little band intrguing on the guidance. Even the euro hints at it...although it's more to the NW, The GFS earlier on the 6z run had height falls of over 240meters in 12 hrs. That's dam good...Drag used to love those comments on height fall centers. I mean if that happens as the low rapidly deepens...someone will have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 closed mid level systems SE of me resulting in drizzle. ok.NJ is not ESNE, dry slit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NJ is not ESNE, dry slit That is irrelevant to the dynamics of a mid-level center...you wouldn't expect diffues and weak precip on the NW side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably best to make posts that are region specific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lets move the discussion over to the new thread...this one is around 1400 posts. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42819-east-coast-winter-storm-february-14th-imminent-part-ii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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