Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Close but no cigar on that statement--GC manges to pull a .5-.75. Relatively tough to tough run for areas above a Sparta, NJ--EEN--to south of Sunday River. Moderate right along that line, meager just above. But, it's the NAM--hope it's wrong. Well you're not SNE..You are CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I would like to take the NAM and run please. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ever since the lead nose of the governing impulse began moving ashore in the Pac NW, the NAM has been backing off the ending result(s) as far as cyclogenisis/intensities in the east. I am wondering if this was because of data initialization issues, where the assimilation over the eastern oceanic regions of the Pac may have been a bit too zealous up to the 00z run last night, and now that hard data is sniffed ..... NCEP diagnostic folk have at least taken similar notice, "....THE 00Z NAM IS DIFFERENT EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE...REGARDING A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM WITH A SLOWER/NORTHWARD DISPLACED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BY WED MORNING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...A FEATURE WHICH HOLDS GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH INTHE NAM BY EARLY THU OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...." but as usual, their header says, "NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT" which is annoying and dubiously inconsistent with that preceding paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably a storm of the century for the MA, how cool is that.No,they've seen much larger than than 12-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This run was sharper with the srn stream system and stronger at the surface though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No,they've seen much larger than than 12-14.Euro snow maps have 20-24 over a tremendous area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No,they've seen much larger than than 12-14. He said he wasn't just referring to the DC area, but also the SE where a significant ice storm will occur. In this case, the whole picture proves to be pretty epic for that area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A picture of beauty Attached Images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We can mix and match to get an overall idea. Sort of like incorporating uncertainty...but I don't necessarily spit that out as a forecast verbatim...especially this far out. That's actually pretty cool... I'd be much more inclined to look at the snow maps without lmao if I knew there was a human element tailoring them somehow. Rather than just spitting out NAM QPF at 15:1 ratio for every location that H85 is below 0C, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I noticed this too, re the shift E by the Euro, that it didn't seem to matter for us, but more for the M/A. Then I read this, and immediately I figure that the end result doesn't mean any difference to our sensible impact, here; whatever that ultimately turns out to be. "...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW TRACK EAST SLIGHTLY FROM ITS 12Z RUN...20-40 MILES...ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST..." As is, after front snows, I see pounding IP penetrating all way inland quite a ways, probably as far as where I am up in Ayer, ranging to wind swept cold rain down in N. RI on this Euro run -- but it all flashed back to snow for a perhaps 2-3 hours as it's winding down. It's an ugly-ish run for us in reality. However, even for the Euro ... yes, it can shift a little around at 72 hours, and 50 miles isn't unheard of even for the Euro, so we'll see. The UKMET solution from the 00z would seem to convert the event to a cold rain nor'easter as it take its version of the low over land, over eastern NE. Meanwhile, we have the GGEM with it's colder profile and keeping this white over a considerably larger area ... lot's of it, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Historic storm when you factor in accum snows and ice in the deep south to maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro snow maps have 20-24 over a tremendous areaOk but Certainly not storm of the century for them. Remember in 2009-2010 they had 4 storms like this ... two of them back to back ("Snowmageddon"). Philly had 26" in the blizz of '96. Then there was the blizz of '83 and so on. They've seen this before so nothing special about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 epic just epic week at SR Yeah finally started snowing up north a bit... we have at least gotten back into a "normal" snowfall pattern that averages the usual 2-2.5" per day that we should be getting most winter days. 24" through the first 10 days of the month, with measurable on 9 of those 10 days. On track finally for a "normal" snowfall month this winter. So its easier to miss these storms, rather than freaking out in January when you miss them and are running only like 30% normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah finally started snowing up north a bit... we have at least gotten back into a "normal" snowfall pattern that averages the usual 2-2.5" per day that we should be getting most winter days. 24" through the first 10 days of the month, with measurable on 9 of those 10 days. On track finally for a "normal" snowfall month this winter. So its easier to miss these storms, rather than freaking out in January when you miss them and are running only like 30% normal snowfall. You've written Thursday off completely, PF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He said he wasn't just referring to the DC area, but also the SE where a significant ice storm will occur. In this case, the whole picture proves to be pretty epic for that area...Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ok but Certainly not storm of the century for them. Remember in 2009-2010 they had 4 storms like this ... two of them back to back ("Snowmageddon"). Philly had 26" in the blizz of '96. Then there was the blizz of '83 and so on. They've seen this before so nothing special about this one. Yes they have experienced bigger snows in the past, but I disagree that the frequency is high enough to negate the "specialness" of this event. Over the longer haul, you will find that the percent probability for more than 6, 12, and 18" increments goes down to very very low odds, very fast. The odds of getting 20" of snow in DCA is remote, and just because it happened during that 'snow --whatever gettin'' year, is a fluke anomaly that was truly a rare season when compared to the 200+ year sample set. More than even 4" in that area of the country, with sufficient cold, and that causes a big problem for a demography that is more typically ill-prepared because in reality, they don't get larger events frequently enough to be hardened to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am going to start a part II thread for this if there are no objections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You've written Thursday off completely, PF? No. I've got 1-4" in my operational forecast right now at the mountain. But that's a pretty much WAG right now. NAM has 0" and the ECM has 14". GFS and CMC though are more in the 1-5" range, so that's where I'm leaning now. My main concern is that you are either in that band, or out of that band. There's not going to be like a widespread area of snows... I think this is pretty narrow impact zone in New England in terms of 10+ inch snows...naturally if it sets up in the right spot it'll hit a lot of the SNE/coastal NNE posters on here, but its still a probably fairly narrow impact for a low that strong (ie, there's not like a large area of 3-6" snows back to like Syracuse like there are in some coastals). Someone in that band is going to get lit up though...absolutely smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS through 48 goes neg with the low just off hse. It also wants to nose hp in from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS suspiciously warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 gfs seems way to low with qpf.. For the people that dont have a qpf fetish it looks like SNE would get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS suspiciously warm. Warm and west or just warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still a little ragged with the precip shield. Looks near or just east of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I will be interesting to see what the GFS does. If it comes towards the Euro at all, I really will start to believe the numbers. Just an epic storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Warm and west or just warm? Really warm at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS looks a bit west to me...but yeah looks less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am starting to understand how this goes down, heavy front end to lt mix rain then tremendous height falls with convective change to roaring cold snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It looks really good in mid levels, but surface looks wierd with precip and warm 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am starting to understand how this goes down, heavy front end to lt mix rain then tremendous height falls with convective change to roaring cold snow. it isn't going to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still a little ragged with the precip shield. Looks near or just east of ACK. Its trying for the big finale though at 63 hours. GFS is probably too disorganized vs reality which is causing some of the spurious warming in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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