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Feb 13-15 modeled event increased confidence now.


Typhoon Tip

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@60h looks like it will track about 10mi outside ACK.

 

It does but it's also kind of a diffuse low as it wraps "up" and then shunts NE...same theme as all the other models. 

 

I don't have a real problem with this evolution.  Details TBD 50-75 miles either way at this point.  The general theme is the stripe of heaviest will be somewhere from Berkshire Beast to Sunday River on the left end to down from Portland to Ginxy (roughly) on the east end with the zones east and west up for grabs for various reasons.

 

I may toaster bath with warmth and a dry slot, and PF may have to stack every flake that falls to make the Mansfield stake gain an inch.

 

I'm a patient guy but if I were the ski resorts up in northern Vermont...if this one misses SE I would end up doing a bonsai charge down the mountain with no clothes on. 

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In case you were wondering, yes I still like this storm. Lol. Couple of things, increasing signs to a monster backlash as the awesome 7H Maps Ocean state posted show. Ray nailed the thermal issue. We need a name for the spot between ACK and the BM so we don't have to keep typing it out. East coast shutdown storm. Epicosity.

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It does but it's also kind of a diffuse low as it wraps "up" and then shunts NE...same theme as all the other models. 

 

I don't have a real problem with this evolution.  Details TBD 50-75 miles either way at this point.  The general theme is the stripe of heaviest will be somewhere from Berkshire Beast to Sunday River on the left end to down from Portland to Ginxy (roughly) on the east end with the zones east and west up for grabs for various reasons.

 

I may toaster bath with warmth and a dry slot, and PF may have to stack every flake that falls to make the Mansfield stake gain an inch.

 

I'm a patient guy but if I were the ski resorts up in northern Vermont...if this one misses SE I may do a bonsai charge down the mountain with no clothes on. 

 

You aren't getting that warm. Maybe 35-38 at worst.

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Are we looking at 10:1 with this?  I know Dendrite was talking about a good snow growth zone which would suggest higher ratios.

 

Also, what are the scenarios to slow this down?  I would assume there are 2 ways:

 

1.  have the low close off near cape cod, which would cause a natural slowing down.

 

2.  have the upper low and then northern stream kicker come through behind the main thumb and keep us in light snow for a tippiefied 40 hours.

 

These scenarios on the table?

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Are we looking at 10:1 with this? I know Dendrite was talking about a good snow growth zone which would suggest higher ratios.

Also, what are the scenarios to slow this down? I would assume there are 2 ways:

1. have the low close off near cape cod, which would cause a natural slowing down.

2. have the upper low and then northern stream kicker come through behind the main thumb and keep us in light snow for a tippiefied 40 hours.

These scenarios on the table?

5H capture
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It does but it's also kind of a diffuse low as it wraps "up" and then shunts NE...same theme as all the other models. 

 

I don't have a real problem with this evolution.  Details TBD 50-75 miles either way at this point.  The general theme is the stripe of heaviest will be somewhere from Berkshire Beast to Sunday River on the left end to down from Portland to Ginxy (roughly) on the east end with the zones east and west up for grabs for various reasons.

 

I may toaster bath with warmth and a dry slot, and PF may have to stack every flake that falls to make the Mansfield stake gain an inch.

 

I'm a patient guy but if I were the ski resorts up in northern Vermont...if this one misses SE I would end up doing a bonsai charge down the mountain with no clothes on. 

:lmao:

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I may toaster bath with warmth and a dry slot, and PF may have to stack every flake that falls to make the Mansfield stake gain an inch.

I'm a patient guy but if I were the ski resorts up in northern Vermont...if this one misses SE I would end up doing a bonsai charge down the mountain with no clothes on.

You guys absolutely love this stuff, lol.

We are fine up here now. We got our one warning storm before May, that's a big plus this season.

We'll remember it next year when it reverses, haha. Look back on the posts here and in the NNE thread though, I don't think anyone in VT has expected anything out of this system. Our sentiment is like all of SNE/CNE was in 2011-2012, it just doesn't want to happen (meanwhile we were collecting 36" upslope events up here)

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In case you were wondering, yes I still like this storm. Lol. Couple of things, increasing signs to a monster backlash as the awesome 7H Maps Ocean state posted show. Ray nailed the thermal issue. We need a name for the spot between ACK and the BM so we don't have to keep typing it out. East coast shutdown storm. Epicosity.

Perfect spot for me.

 

The G-spot.

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It is but you know there will be a 50 mile shift that will put some into the snow and others into the cirrus. Plus the Richmond snow hole...:

when I say MA it involves not just the DC crowd also should add the SE. Potential is there for a crippling ice storm. Also keep in mind PA with its ongoing power issues as well as weakened trees. Full moon goon kids.
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It gives all  most of SNe over an inch of qpf..snow to the coast

 

Close but no cigar on that statement--GC manges to pull a .5-.75.

 

Relatively tough to tough run for areas above a Sparta, NJ--EEN--to south of Sunday River.  Moderate right along that line, meager just above.

 

But, it's the NAM--hope it's wrong.

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Close but no cigar on that statement--GC manges to pull a .5-.75.

Relatively tough to tough run for areas above a Sparta, NJ--EEN--to south of Sunday River. Moderate right along that line, meager just above.

But, it's the NAM--hope it's wrong.

What? You would be in good banding. Don't just look at QPF.
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You guys absolutely love this stuff, lol.

We are fine up here now. We got our one warning storm before May, that's a big plus this season.

We'll remember it next year when it reverses, haha. Look back on the posts here and in the NNE thread though, I don't think anyone in VT has expected anything out of this system. Our sentiment is like all of SNE/CNE was in 2011-2012, it just doesn't want to happen (meanwhile we were collecting 36" upslope events up here)

 

I'm actually pulling for you...like I said I'm too far SE with this one regardless.  BUT I'm also going to SR next week so if it's between you and them....I pull harder for SR on this one :)

 

I just can't get over how "narrow" these systems continue to be but I suppose that's  function of the pattern.

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I like this WSI snow map... Sugarloaf posted it but not sure what its based on. 

 

It says GFS-NAM-ECM Internal Snow Algorithm, haha. 

 

attachicon.gifWSI.JPG

 

We can mix and match to get an overall idea. Sort of like incorporating uncertainty...but I don't necessarily spit that out as a forecast verbatim...especially this far out.

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or uote name="butterfish55" post="2764962" timestamp="1392130875"]

I was thinking the spot between ACK and the BM is the 'taint......'taint the BM and it 'taint ACK. Also, when a storm tracks in that spot, I usually taint to some degree here

G spot is good too though.lol great especially for SE region, what's ecstasy for some taint so good

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I'm actually pulling for you...like I said I'm too far SE with this one regardless. BUT I'm also going to SR next week so if it's between you and them....I pull harder for SR on this one :)

I just can't get over how "narrow" these systems continue to be but I suppose that's function of the pattern.

epic just epic week at SR
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Let's let the nam be the blind squirrel this one time....

 

Amen to that

 

Quick look, for our Boston metro, warmest soundings around hr 57 when it looks to thread the needle, just <0C 800 down to 950mb off twister / earl barker's site

 

CCB, avoid the dryslot... great run for us, and overall an I95 corridor crusher mid-Atlantic north

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