dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So technically, We won't be able to nail down any specifics other then broad brushing with today's model runs until at least 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow until the kicker is into RAOBS to fine tune the specifics with the track and areas that will get hit the hardest or prone to dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For all intents and purposes, you can't ask for a better airmass along the coastline from now until Thursday morning. However that retreating high is a killer. If there was a high even sliding east of Maine, it would be all snow pretty much. SSTs are near their seasonal nadir, and we have a true, blue arctic airmass retreating, so I'm not worried about above freezing air penetrating this far inland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So technically, We won't be able to nail down any specifics other then broad brushing with today's model runs until at least 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow until the kicker is into RAOBS to fine tune the specifics with the track and areas that will get hit the hardest or prone to dryslot I'm not a huge believer that the RAOBs are the reason why some models tend to do well vs not (Euro vs NAM) The Nam will fail just as often inside of 24 hours when it has all the RAOB data as not. I do believe there's something to the models not handling stuff out of the SW well, and also the rockies. Other than that...I think that's an over-rated thing in 2014 that really is just another way of saying the Euro's ingest is far superior to ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SSTs are near their seasonal nadir, and we have a true, blue arctic airmass retreating, so I'm not worried about above freezing air penetrating this far inland.... I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM closes off nicely..Looks to bring the CCB a bit farther East this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z NAM thru 48h looks on track. Looks a touch more amplified than 06z at 48h. Metro DC getting pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAm came SE somewhat and certainly colder. i don't know if Freak will like this run..but it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM crushing SNE up into CNE by 09z Thursday. Looks like it's cooled from 06z run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM hits pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It gives all of SNe over an inch of qpf..snow to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 @60h looks like it will track about 10mi outside ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like it might have the hellacious wrap-around too, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM looks a little stronger and faster with the H5 s/w. Looks same surface placement. It's probably getting a better idea of antecedent airmass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Let's let the nam be the blind squirrel this one time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAm came SE somewhat and certainly colder. i don't know if Freak will like this run..but it's the NAM I don't even bother looking at the NAM anymore until a storm starts- even then, grain of salt. The discussion this morning basically said don't bother with the NAM- it's just wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RA/Sn line would probably get to BOS-PVD area briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM looks a little stronger and faster with the H5 s/w. Looks same surface placement. It's probably getting a better idea of antecedent airmass too. Actually looks like a reasonable track solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Best part is the 700mb low passes near or just south of LI..if that actually happens SNE is smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 @60h looks like it will track about 10mi outside ACK. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't even bother looking at the NAM anymore until a storm starts- even then, grain of salt. The discussion this morning basically said don't bother with the NAM- it's just wrong, right? Doesn't mean we can't shouldn't discuss what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Actually looks like a reasonable track solution. That's what I sort of envision as a track/hope. LOL. And yes, quite the ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's what I sort of envision as a track/hope. LOL. And yes, quite the ending. What are we expecting ratios to be? Based on 1 inch qpf it would seem we are in line for 10 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well that's the NAM...I hope to see that solution tomorrow..lol. Part of the issue with temps aloft is how fast this deepens. Get this to deepen quicker and even if this tucks into ACK, dynamics and ageostrophic flow sort of offset warming. The NAM tries to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's what I sort of envision as a track/hope. LOL. And yes, quite the ending. Imagine if the EURO comes in like this.....would be a lot of lifeless ski suites dangling from the roofs of ski shacks, and ice houses lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What are we expecting ratios to be? Based on 1 inch qpf it would seem we are in line for 10 inches... Yeah maybe better if the 700mb low tracks the way it is. Anyways along and esp just NW of the 700 low will have good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What are we expecting ratios to be? Based on 1 inch qpf it would seem we are in line for 10 inches... General 10", 12-18" where ever banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Imagine if the EURO comes in like this.....would be a lot of lifeless ski suites dangling from the roofs of ski shacks, and ice houses lol Yes... but I would be happy and that's what's important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Imagine if the EURO comes in like this.....would be a lot of lifeless ski suites dangling from the roofs of ski shacks, and ice houses lol Well I think it's a little too tight with the circulation because a euro track like that would still hit them hard if I adjusted 00z east like that. Anyways, it's just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes... but I would be happy and that's what's important. Me, too, b*tch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well I think it's a little too tight with the circulation because a euro track like that would still hit them hard if I adjusted 00z east like that. Anyways, it's just the NAM. Yes, but the overall sentiment was funny lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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