Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The model analyses should start becoming closer to the sampled "truth" of the northern stream shortwave. However, today's 12z runs (at least the GFS) will still be influenced by the background analysis which is the 06z run's 6 hr forecast. By 00z that information should be fully incorporated into the model analyses. Actually the vorticity max associated with that closed low offshore of the Pacific northwest will not be fully sampled by the sounding network until 06-12z tomorrow. This is the feature that amplifies slightly into the "kicker" trough, which will have implications on the final track as well. Thanks for the thoughts. Was pretty cool to watch the 2 s/w's break off from that ULL in the GOA. The 1st being the storm itself and the 2nd becoming the kicker s/w. For us here in the Northeast the kicker is critical so not having that fully incorporated till 00z tonight is not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL..not sure what he could possibly be basing this on That is weird. he is alone on this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The model analyses should start becoming closer to the sampled "truth" of the northern stream shortwave. However, today's 12z runs (at least the GFS) will still be influenced by the background analysis which is the 06z run's 6 hr forecast. By 00z that information should be fully incorporated into the model analyses. Actually the vorticity max associated with that closed low offshore of the Pacific northwest will not be fully sampled by the sounding network until 06-12z tomorrow. This is the feature that amplifies slightly into the "kicker" trough, which will have implications on the final track as well. but wouldn't pure observation seem to indicate where the kicker is now compared to guidance? I am going to read the HPC model discussion, perhaps they discuss that in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 but wouldn't pure observation seem to indicate where the kicker is now compared to guidance? I am going to read the HPC model discussion, perhaps they discuss that in there. Sure but it doesn't really tell you anything about strength of the vortmax. The better sampled the vorticity, the more accurate the models will be in the future evolution of that feature (the kicker) We do have satellite incorporation now which is better than 10-15 years ago, but RAOB is still better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 09z SREFs are over the BM. Not all too dissimilar to 03z, just sharper on the hook so they will bend closer to the Elbow. QPF is bumped up for everyone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 but wouldn't pure observation seem to indicate where the kicker is now compared to guidance? I am going to read the HPC model discussion, perhaps they discuss that in there. No it's definitely west of the coastline. When you have a lot of speed max vorticity like this will have...it's a good thing to try and get actual observations since the downstream effects are quite large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 but wouldn't pure observation seem to indicate where the kicker is now compared to guidance? I am going to read the HPC model discussion, perhaps they discuss that in there. You can see where it is, But what is the pressure that is associated with it, That's what needs to be determined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The one thing that stood out to me on the 00z euro is that the 925mb low was certainly east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Another 25 miles and we're golden..25 miles is certainly probableWhat does certainly probable mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Folllowing up, I like this overnight diagnostic from HPC: toss the nam at this point gfs too weak and east ukmet too west cmc to fast the track into the gom instead of ene still looks good EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z UKMET / 12Z EC MEANOR A BLEND OF 00Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF POSITIONCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS DIFFERENT EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE...REGARDING ANRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLYTHIS MORNING. THIS CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM WITH A SLOWER/NORTHWARDDISPLACED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BY WED MORNING OVER THE CNTRL HIGHPLAINS...A FEATURE WHICH HOLDS GOOD CONTINUITY IN THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH INTHE NAM BY EARLY THU OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.THE ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TODAYTHAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED...BUT THEY HAVE MADE AWHOLESALE SHIFT SLOWER AND WEST. THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE ON THE WESTSIDE OF THE LATEST LOW PLOT ENVELOPE...INITIALIZED12Z/10...FOLLOWED BY THE GEFS/CMC MEMBERS JUST EAST OF THE ECMWFMEMBER CLUSTER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS PRECLUDES USE OFTHE 00Z CMC WHICH CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS.THE 00Z UKMET IS LIKELY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH HOW FARSOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENDS UP WEST OFITS 12Z RUN WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST. THE00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW TRACK EAST SLIGHTLY FROM ITS 12ZRUN...20-40 MILES...ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT IS NEARLYIDENTICAL TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE 00ZECMWF IS STILL A BIT WEST OF THE 12Z EC MEAN NEAR NEW ENGLAND.GIVEN THESE ADJUSTMENTS...STILL FEEL THE 00Z GFS IS A TAD TOO FAREAST...AND TOO WEAK...PERHAPS RELATED TO POSSIBLE CONVECTIVEFEEDBACK ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THEPREVIOUS PREFERENCE CONTINUES...BUT TO INCLUDE THE LATEST 00ZMODEL SUITE...THE POSITION OF THE BLENDED 00Z ECMWF/GFS APPEARSMOST USABLE...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sure but it doesn't really tell you anything about strength of the vortmax. The better sampled the vorticity, the more accurate the models will be in the future evolution of that feature (the kicker) We do have satellite incorporation now which is better than 10-15 years ago, but RAOB is still better. Yeah, the vertical resolution is still far greater in the balloon obs than the satellite-derived products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sure but it doesn't really tell you anything about strength of the vortmax. The better sampled the vorticity, the more accurate the models will be in the future evolution of that feature (the kicker) We do have satellite incorporation now which is better than 10-15 years ago, but RAOB is still better. hpc diagnostic suggests that nam is off on that shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hpc diagnostic suggests that nam is off on that shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The one thing that stood out to me on the 00z euro is that the 925mb low was certainly east of 12z. Not surprising that the BL will cool/go east a bit even if many of the features are the same....since guidance seems to sometimes try and scour out a potent antecedent airmass too quickly. It will def modify quite a bit, but usually guidance is way too fast with it. We've seen the NAM do this too...despite similar tracks. It has steadily cooled the boundary layer in eastenr MA on each run it seems. Before, it was trying to produce a mix to rain back to ORH on a benchmark track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hpc diagnostic suggests that nam is off on that shortwave. Yeah, and the sun is rising today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I have to pretend I know something...go easy on me. don't hate me for loving on hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does certainly probable mean? At this point, certainly probable = wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does certainly probable mean? Meaning it shifted 25-30 miles east on the 00z run and another 25 mile shift is is certainly likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, and the sun is rising today. I thought it was a hi res, decent in the short term kinda model. Overall I love the HPC diagnostic overnight. I also like that Kocin seems on board to something near the Euro. I know I'm in a good spot for this but I'm nervous! I leave for India Saturday and I don't want another miss!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not surprising that the BL will cool/go east a bit even if many of the features are the same....since guidance seems to sometimes try and scour out a potent antecedent airmass too quickly. It will def modify quite a bit, but usually guidance is way too fast with it. We've seen the NAM do this too...despite similar tracks. It has steadily cooled the boundary layer in eastenr MA on each run it seems. Before, it was trying to produce a mix to rain back to ORH on a benchmark track. Time for the GFS to do the same because it seems way too warm west of 128, but we've seen that before. It's definitely going to shove warmer air well inland from actuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does certainly probable mean? It's Kevspeak for "12-18 lollies to 24 for most" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I have to pretend I know something...go easy on me. don't hate me for loving on hpc Oh no it wasn't anything on you...It was more of a joke because I had to laugh at that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I thought it was a hi res, decent in the short term kinda model. Overall I love the HPC diagnostic overnight. I also like that Kocin seems on board to something near the Euro. I know I'm in a good spot for this but I'm nervous! I leave for India Saturday and I don't want another miss!!! NAM is ok in short term as in <24 hours. Maybe 36 if we stretch it. Its not useable at 60-66 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL..not sure what he could possibly be basing this on It looks quite a bit like the 0z GFS clown map (posted merely for comparison purposes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I have to pretend I know something...go easy on me. don't hate me for loving on hpc Its not your love for hpc...it was more that it isn't surprising the NAM was off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I still think is possible the ecm can come west. Not likely, but certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 6z NAM Holds perfect for a 10"-20" Snowstorm for Northern RI again, especially with its warm bias. That's probably best case scenario. It's so borderline all around. It should rip for a little bit regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For all intents and purposes, you can't ask for a better airmass along the coastline from now until Thursday morning. However that retreating high is a killer. If there was a high even sliding east of Maine, it would be all snow pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He's been on the struggle bus this winter... Well he went from Danielle Niles to Joe Joyce. I'd be a litte sad & bummed too. lol And to make this a non-OT post, the Euro is being really stubborn with the idea of closing off the mid/upper levels over Georgia & South Carolina. Would love to see this occur just a little later. Would also love for this to track another 75 miles east and avoid the dreaded dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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