SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As currently modeled are we looking at an early Thursday morning start? How long are we expecting it to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z? That's what it looked like based on models and WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As currently modeled are we looking at an early Thursday morning start? How long are we expecting it to snow? I think we're looking at late morning up in GC. If folks aren't too spooked by the forecast, we might be able to manage an early school dismissal instead of a cancel. Timing might also allow for a delayed opening rather than a closing on Friday. OT--just noticed the -9 at CEF this morning. Lots of negative temps in CT, even sw areas along the merritt like georgetown and Wilton. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's what it looked like based on models and WV. Had not really looked at a Sat out west other then what some have said was the possible time frame, I would think we see some shifting depending on the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 just read the BOX discussion and it seemed kind of meh.. then started looking at some of the overnight models and everything looked pretty good I dont get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For southwest coastal Maine (PWM and south), would a small east shift translate to staying all snow here or is the likelihood of some mixing pretty good regardless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 the euro ens mean is slightly colder and se of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Noyes has 1-3 inches for most of Central and ENE and 3-6 NW SNE and even DCA..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I could see that, In some instances it could make a big difference of staying in the banding or dryslotting Or getting into the banding vs watching flurries through dim sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 just read the BOX discussion and it seemed kind of meh.. then started looking at some of the overnight models and everything looked pretty good I dont get it They appear to be going cautious until today's model output. Hard to blame them, there are a lot of moving parts that will determine how much snow falls in SNE and where. Speed of that S/W is a big factor and also how soon this system winds up. This time tomorrow we will all be a lot more confident about what's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Noyes has 1-3 inches for most of Central and ENE and 3-6 NW SNE and even DCA..lol No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Noyes has 1-3 inches for most of Central and ENE and 3-6 NW SNE and even DCA..lol He's been on the struggle bus this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No way. LOL..not sure what he could possibly be basing this on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Or getting into the banding vs watching flurries through dim sun. lol, For the ones out in the NW NNE hinterlands, You could still do well even with a tic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think we're looking at late morning up in GC. If folks aren't too spooked by the forecast, we might be able to manage an early school dismissal instead of a cancel. Timing might also allow for a delayed opening rather than a closing on Friday. OT--just noticed the -9 at CEF this morning. Lots of negative temps in CT, even sw areas along the merritt like georgetown and Wilton. Wow. Yeah, good luck with that. This thing will be a national news story and will be hyped to no end, especially with all the issues it'll cause down south. I'm fully anticipating wholesale advance cancellations throughout the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 just read the BOX discussion and it seemed kind of meh.. then started looking at some of the overnight models and everything looked pretty good I dont get it noyes playing it kinda meh too, his map looks light for mid atl?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He said if there is one it would be minor. I wouldn't expect anything significant... Count on 14-18 iyby. Monads will jack this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes we need the Euro to stay just the way it is. I'm hoping this system could be the one that heralds some change in the NAO state. We can't survive on +NAO like we have been if we want winter threats deep into March, etc. This ones track is breaking the long pattern of lows just screaming across the pond after hitting us...and slamming right into the UK. No, no more tickles east. These features are already awesome for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Forky, 12-18 for you is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really liked the 06z NAM and GFS solutions. Dynamic to say the least, Should really start honing in on a track today as the kicked should be fully sampled by all models as it will be onshore. My gut still says the Euro is still overamplified but it could be correct. What storm on tap for the Southern states. This has all the makings of an historical system overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL..not sure what he could possibly be basing this on Looks like a massive I95 dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Forky, 12-18 for you is my call. Still thinking 3-6" for BOS? Thinking 5-8" to taint here. So close to something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 6z NAM Holds perfect for a 10"-20" Snowstorm for Northern RI again, especially with its warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still thinking 3-6" for BOS? Thinking 5-8" to taint here. So close to something more. Well the dynamics may give Boston and you more. Hard storm to figure out because verbatim some guidance isn't great for snow but often in that case the warming is exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still thinking 3-6" for BOS? Thinking 5-8" to taint here. So close to something more. Euro ensembles being slightly SE may signal that little eastward adjustment, could be quite a big deal for our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 They appear to be going cautious until today's model output. Hard to blame them, there are a lot of moving parts that will determine how much snow falls in SNE and where. Speed of that S/W is a big factor and also how soon this system winds up. This time tomorrow we will all be a lot more confident about what's coming. Agree with that approach. They've got the HWO out there. Nearly 48 hours to the start--no reason to hype things before now. Awareness is appropriate. After the 12z runs--which I doubt will have much change--I think their confidence on a significant impact will be enough to be more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Count on 14-18 iyby. Monads will jack this system. Thanks for your thoughts. Monads will do very well; however, I am a little easy of there. I am thinking 10-12" for my area here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He's been on the struggle bus this winter... Possibly avoiding yelling "FIRE!" in a crowded movie theater type thing. If it waivers 50 miles west, much lower impact for his viewership. If 50 miles east, it's high impact. He explains it, quite clearly, in his PRELIMINARY FORECAST, and that the details will be ironed out- like all the professional mets are saying- it's still too early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks for your thoughts. Monads will do very well; however, I am a little easy of there. I am thinking 10-12" for my area here. East of the monads but with some elevation should help you with the 850 circulation I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really liked the 06z NAM and GFS solutions. Dynamic to say the least, Should really start honing in on a track today as the kicked should be fully sampled by all models as it will be onshore. My gut still says the Euro is still overamplified but it could be correct. What storm on tap for the Southern states. This has all the makings of an historical system overall. The model analyses should start becoming closer to the sampled "truth" of the northern stream shortwave. However, today's 12z runs (at least the GFS) will still be influenced by the background analysis which is the 06z run's 6 hr forecast. By 00z that information should be fully incorporated into the model analyses. Actually the vorticity max associated with that closed low offshore of the Pacific northwest will not be fully sampled by the sounding network until 06-12z tomorrow. This is the feature that amplifies slightly into the "kicker" trough, which will have implications on the final track as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.