CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One of those 3-4 hours of high winds and s+ type deals..with maybe thunder? Well if the GFS is right, yes. The euro has this too...only more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS goes from 546 decamters to 522 decmaters over SNE in 12 hrs. That's very very impressive and implies one hell of a backlash. Walt Drag PT right there. Looks to be pegging central and eastern areas of sne here if I'm looking at it right. It would be nice to get that to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think they are set up to do well. That easterly component to the mid levels loves to pile up the snow against the Whites. I think your CWA jacks out of this in New England... This just has that look of something that clobbers Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks to be pegging central and eastern areas of sne here if I'm looking at it right. It would be nice to get that to play out. Well just speaking of the GFS which is stil least of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well if the GFS is right, yes. The euro has this too...only more NW. When the Euro jumps east again at 12z..would that insure that even coastal areas stay all snow(outside of the cape) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When the Euro jumps east again at 12z..would that insure that even coastal areas stay all snow(outside of the cape) Eh, I think it depends on the track. I can't see much of a tick east. I'd be happy if it went near ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think your CWA jacks out of this in New England... This just has that look of something that clobbers Maine. Unless the GFS is correct and BGR hits 1.70" QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Eh, I think it depends on the track. I can't see much of a tick east. I'd be happy if it went near ACK. Would that keep you snow thruout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well if the GFS is right, yes. The euro has this too...only more NW. The ECM is perfect right now, everyone gets snows My gut still says east of the ECM, and Murphy's Law seasonal persistence forecast would be whatever solution would be the most painful for NW New England. You watch, we'll be laughing about this as Will and Kev are dancing under a TSSN comma head. All joking aside, as awful a model as it is, the 00z CMC looked pretty realistic and a decent medium right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unless the GFS is correct and BGR hits 1.70" QPF! Haha, yeah someone up in Maine takes this home. I think we'll see some big band that may remain more transient further south (ie it lifts NW, then moves back SE) in New England, while up in Maine it just sort of sits in the same areas, pivoting from the hip. I'd probably have trouble sleeping right now if I was Cold Front in Lewiston...like a kid hopped up on sugar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thoughts from DT--nice trouncing depicted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I always get nervous before the event as I wonder where the banding will set up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The ECM is perfect right now, everyone gets snows My gut still says east of the ECM, and Murphy's Law seasonal persistence forecast would be whatever solution would be the most painful for NW New England. You watch, we'll be laughing about this as Will and Kev are dancing under a TSSN comma head. All joking aside, as awful a model as it is, the 00z CMC looked pretty realistic and a decent medium right now. I'm just glad a lot of us told you to hang tight. I think you guys will do pretty darn well even with a tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Would that keep you snow thruout? A track more SE would. Honestly, if the high was north of Maine a track near the Cape probably would be snow here, but the retreating high floods the area from 950-850 with warm air. That even goes for your area too...you'll probably sleet on the euro and get close to 32F as it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BTW, I did the radio show last night with DT and Wes, and DT definitely is a good guy on the air. Not exactly what you expect from his facebook posts...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Haha, yeah someone up in Maine takes this home. I think we'll see some big band that may remain more transient further south (ie it lifts NW, then moves back SE) in New England, while up in Maine it just sort of sits in the same areas, pivoting from the hip. I'd probably have trouble sleeping right now if I was Cold Front in Lewiston...like a kid hopped up on sugar. lol, That will probably be tonight, Certainly in a good spot here but so are many others, This is a decent region wide thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BTW, I did the radio show last night with DT and Wes, and DT definitely is a good guy on the air. Not exactly what you expect from his facebook posts...lol. By the way, Great job on there, You echoed your thoughts as that POS Nam was coming out, I see we are not the only ones that feel that way about the Nam although for the folks down south, It's not as bad as the low starts to crank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Haha, yeah someone up in Maine takes this home. I think we'll see some big band that may remain more transient further south (ie it lifts NW, then moves back SE) in New England, while up in Maine it just sort of sits in the same areas, pivoting from the hip. I'd probably have trouble sleeping right now if I was Cold Front in Lewiston...like a kid hopped up on sugar. We'll probably see a bit of everything when it comes to banding. Laterally translating with the WAA as it pushes through SNE, Quasi-stationary in NNE as the low bombs out, and pivoting somewhere down in the Mid Atlantic to southeast NY. You know if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We'll probably see a bit of everything when it comes to banding. Laterally translating with the WAA as it pushes through SNE, Quasi-stationary in NNE as the low bombs out, and pivoting somewhere down in the Mid Atlantic to southeast NY. You know if the GFS is correct. The euro destroys the Maine foothills...wow. Just looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A track more SE would. Honestly, if the high was north of Maine a track near the Cape probably would be snow here, but the retreating high floods the area from 950-850 with warm air. That even goes for your area too...you'll probably sleet on the euro and get close to 32F as it happens. Well I still believe the Euro isn't done moving east. Will seemd to think another move Se would happen..And if that does occur it keeps us all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm just glad a lot of us told you to hang tight. I think you guys will do pretty darn well even with a tick east. It'll be a nail biter. I just can't latch onto the ECM though as that's really the only model delivering something worthwhile up here. But man has it been consistent with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well I still believe the Euro isn't done moving east. Will seemd to think another move Se would happen..And if that does occur it keeps us all snow He said if there is one it would be minor. I wouldn't expect anything significant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well I still believe the Euro isn't done moving east. Will seemd to think another move Se would happen..And if that does occur it keeps us all snow I think it will too, but it's not 100% given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He said if there is one it would be minor. I wouldn't expect anything significant... Yep, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He said if there is one it would be minor. I wouldn't expect anything significant... Another 25 miles and we're golden..25 miles is certainly probable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 S/W coming into the pacific should be onshore and sampled for the start of the 12z runs, So any changes if at all we should start to see them then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Another 25 miles and we're golden..25 miles is certainly probable I wouldn't mind another shift in hopes that I can get in a deform band...although given my location I might be out of luck in regards to deform... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Another 25 miles and we're golden..25 miles is certainly probable I could see that, In some instances it could make a big difference of staying in the banding or dryslotting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 S/W coming into the pacific should be onshore and sampled for the start of the 12z runs, So any changes if at all we should start to see them then I think we need to wait one more cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think we need to wait one more cycle. 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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