joey2002 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At hr 72 the 0z line is basically aligning I-84 in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Everyone in New England gets snow on that Euro run. That was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You know how I feel..I think at least up here it'll end up further SE. Doesn't matter to me, I don't think this is more than an inch or two here before a change over unless it ends up 30+ outside of ACK. But we're still about 3 days out and given this winters track record I'd say we're still going to see a 60-100 mile bump in the track up here from "consensus" I agree that it will prob tick SE more...it rarely makes a large move in one run. Kicker was noticeably faster this run...it dd try and offset it somewhat with a stronger/deeper 5H trough, but the kicker still forced it a shade east of 12z in the end. I'd expect that trend to continue tomorrow. But at the same time, I think the GFS is going to come NW some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This would have powderfreak going bonkers if he wasn't already expecting the 2 by 4 to the back of the head. Great track for E NY and VT at 5H. Yeah, we get into a nice deform band h78-84. We get ours and the coast gets a front end dump. That'd be nice, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I agree that it will prob tick SE more...it rarely makes a large move in one run. Kicker was noticeably faster this run...it dd try and offset it somewhat with a stronger/deeper 5H trough, but the kicker still forced it a shade east of 12z in the end. I'd expect that trend to continue tomorrow. But at the same time, I think the GFS is going to come NW some more. I think many in New England see snow with this. Whether it be light or followed by rain. I'm thinking near ACK or slightly NW, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Will sounds like he likes cape to ack track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We still probably end up with an east of ack track in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That front end comma head dump is one for the books, just incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I agree that it will prob tick SE more...it rarely makes a large move in one run. Kicker was noticeably faster this run...it dd try and offset it somewhat with a stronger/deeper 5H trough, but the kicker still forced it a shade east of 12z in the end. I'd expect that trend to continue tomorrow. But at the same time, I think the GFS is going to come NW some more. I swear the Euro is programmed to not have major shifts and that's part of what makes it great. It probably helps it not have the fits that the NAM does when a satellite/UA ob is slightly off and uncorrected. This looks like a storm that'll have a track that hooks up and then it flattens and goes ENE or NE. There's really no good solution for me so I'm merely a spectator but my bet is still that this goes between the BM and ACK probably somewhere on the north side of half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That front end comma head dump is one for the books, just incredible I don't want to sound like a debbie, but the one just last week was more impressive than what the Euro shows right now. Its not bad...but not 10" in 5-6 hours type stuff. Prob like 6" in 6 hours type stuff. The 12z run was a bit more impressive with the front end dump...but this run fails to get the taint as far as inland as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For NNE, I like that it is going into the GOM and not curling ENE. More longitudinal distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't want to sound like a debbie, but the one just last week was more impressive than what the Euro shows right now. Its not bad...but not 10" in 5-6 hours type stuff. Prob like 6" in 6 hours type stuff. The 12z run was a bit more impressive with the front end dump...but this run fails to get the taint as far as inland as 12z.Doesn't sounds like impressive rates or any bombing going on. Well occluded that suggests? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I swear the Euro is programmed to not have major shifts and that's part of what makes it great. It probably helps it not have the fits that the NAM does when a satellite/UA ob is slightly off and uncorrected. This looks like a storm that'll have a track that hooks up and then it flattens and goes ENE or NE. There's really no good solution for me so I'm merely a spectator but my bet is still that this goes between the BM and ACK probably somewhere on the north side of half. Euro definitely does that as H5 closes off. Surface low pauses near Delmarva then jumps NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For NNE, I like that it is going into the GOM and not curling ENE. More longitudinal distribution. That's really the track we need here to get the heavier snow, Its all about tracking thru the Bay of Fundy or over Yarmouth NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Doesn't sounds like impressive rates or any bombing going on. Well occluded that suggests? Its fine...just not 2-3 inches per hour on the front end like last week. Its like an inch of qpf in 12 hours and well over an inch total for the storm. Regardless, those details don't mean anything right now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't want to sound like a debbie, but the one just last week was more impressive than what the Euro shows right now. Its not bad...but not 10" in 5-6 hours type stuff. Prob like 6" in 6 hours type stuff. The 12z run was a bit more impressive with the front end dump...but this run fails to get the taint as far as inland as 12z.1 inch in 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its fine...just not 2-3 inches per hour on the front end like last week. Its like an inch of qpf in 12 hours and well over an inch total for the storm. Regardless, those details don't mean anything right now anyway. This storm is brutally complex and confusing. Makes it a lot more difficult when I can't see the model.Oh well. Im riding 0z gfs by the way things sound. Night! Thx for analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As a side note, I think Bob Costa may be an actual zombie. WTF. At 72/75 hours and prior...I don't think there's any doubt the Euro will tick east in future runs. I could prove to be totally wrong but looking at the nudge at 500mb at 72/75 vs last run...and the incoming features I think it continues. It looks really good for those same areas outlined earlier Beast-->Sunday River and probably increasing east towards Kevin, Will etc and eventually maybe even down to Bob etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro definitely does that as H5 closes off. Surface low pauses near Delmarva then jumps NE. Looking at 5h one can imagine the impact of that northern stream system coming in hot.., we wouldn't see the same hook type track the uk and euro prescribe. Lot of moving parts and I think I'm still not buying the euro evolution up here. Plus there's the hang bang stuff that will need to be resolved in the next run. Interesting storm, fun for me to look at but a tough one for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looking at 5h one can imagine the impact of that northern stream system coming in hot.., we wouldn't see the same hook type track the uk and euro prescribe. Lot of moving parts and I think I'm still not buying the euro evolution up here. Plus there's the hang bang stuff that will need to be resolved in the next run. Interesting storm, fun for me to look at but a tough one for you guys! I think we're well positioned to ramp up into this one. Our forecast 5 nights ago was already 50% chance of snow. Now we can start adding details, like "snow could be heavy at times." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Never mind front end, the Euro sets up pretty nice deformation in ENY and VT. I analyzed the qpf maps carefully and .5" more falls here after 3Z Friday. People were posting maps that ended too soon for us here. Oh I see the 6Z NAM came back to reality, but still east of the Euro models. Its fine...just not 2-3 inches per hour on the front end like last week. Its like an inch of qpf in 12 hours and well over an inch total for the storm. Regardless, those details don't mean anything right now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still huge differences with GFS and euro, especially QPF distribution. I still like my near and just SE of ACK track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Gfs likes your just S of ack track as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How come some modeling is printing out more qpf/snow to the sw over VA/MD/PA..than it is up north? I would think that isn't correct right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How come some modeling is printing out more qpf/snow to the sw over VA/MD/PA..than it is up north? I would think that isn't correct right? They aren't dealing with a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Timing-wise, I'm thinking we might eek out early dismissals on Thursday (I had anticipated closings, but it looks later in the past 24 hours) and at least delayed opening on Friday. It would be a shame to have my daughter's school's Winterfest get snowed out (the 'field day' equivalentfor schools in GC; skating, sledding, x-c skiing, etc). I'm counting on ACK or closer for mby and my weekend in the Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 They aren't dealing with a dry slot. Oh ok,i was assuming the euro was still a bit too far west..One would surmise that the dry slot would end up over SE areas I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sapling Snapper for many...even BOS goes back to snow after a relatively brief taint. So my question from yesterday is answered finally..this is going to be a wet snow even inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So my question from yesterday is answered finally..this is going to be a wet snow even inland I'm not sold on that...at least for a majority of it. This is a congrats DC and esp suburbs storm. What a crushing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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