TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, time to focus on the EURO. Anyone care to throw around and guesses on what it will show? Pretty big run for this system here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Breaking news, you are better than climo. I think the vast majority of weenies across New England are at or above climo. Those below are certainly not double digits below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS/GEM/Euro all over 1" QPF for GYX now. Not a bad place to be sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm going up to Sunday River Friday night to ski through the weekend. Hopefully the roads aren't too bad :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS/GEM/Euro all over 1" QPF for GYX now. Not a bad place to be sitting. I like our seat for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, time to focus on the EURO. Anyone care to throw around and guesses on what it will show? Pretty big run for this system here! Holds serve or a tic SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like our seat for this one I like how the overall envelope of guidance has narrowed to a nice event. But I will say the NCEP discussion is correct that the shortwave driving the ultimate track is pinwheeling somewhere just south of the Aleutians right now. If the Euro is correct, some of that might get sampled 00z tonight (Tuesday 7 PM), more likely 12z. Little changes in amplitude or speed may mean some additional tickles east or west. Those could be big factors in sensible weather despite being small shifts in track. I like the look, but I don't want to see people falling in love with any solution just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like how the overall envelope of guidance has narrowed to a nice event. But I will say the NCEP discussion is correct that the shortwave driving the ultimate track is pinwheeling somewhere just south of the Aleutians right now. If the Euro is correct, some of that might get sampled 00z tonight (Tuesday 7 PM), more likely 12z. Little changes in amplitude or speed may mean some additional tickles east or west. Those could be big factors in sensible weather despite being small shifts in track. I like the look, but I don't want to see people falling in love with any solution just yet. I agree, I think we are all wiser after 12z tomorrow, Should be onshore and sampled by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Holds serve or a tic SEWhat time will we know by? I'm dying to sleep. Don't think itll be long past 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll be really surprised if the Euro isn't at least ACK or SE this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What time will we know by? I'm dying to sleep. Don't think itll be long past 1. Another 15 min or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll be really surprised if the Euro isn't at least ACK or SE this run.Hope your right! I have a bad feeling for some odd reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Little more amped down south early on, Troff a little shaper as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro is deeper early on but the kickr is def faster...so it might end up a bit east despite 5H being deeper at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FWIW, HPC just sent their winter weather guidance for the storm. Impressive ice totals from northeast GA into central SC. Borderline historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro is deeper early on but the kickr is def faster...so it might end up a bit east despite 5H being deeper at 48 hours.Yeah, Mid Atl thread is a fun read. They are going bananas. Track is east down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro is deeper early on but the kickr is def faster...so it might end up a bit east despite 5H being deeper at 48 hours. It's less and less important to our south. It's been funny reading the 3 region threads. Each region sees something different I think we'll see a solution still on the move in later runs. It may only be 30 miles a run, but that's enough for some of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's less and less important to our south. It's been funny reading the 3 region threads. Each region sees something different I think we'll see a solution still on the move in later runs. It may only be 30 miles a run, but that's enough for some of you. Seems like for our regions it's about the same from what I'm reading so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hr 66 apparently 988 over mouth of chesapeake bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Def a subtle shift east...prob saves places like ORH and up to ASH from taint on this run...any meaningful taint anyway. It is still one of the more western runs though overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks a tic SE of 12z but not a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Dca is obliterated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks to go directly over the Cape around 982mb. 25-30 miles SE this run...closer to 12z ensembles actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Goes to town in the GOM 976mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks a tic SE of 12z but not a lot Ends up near ACY at hr72 and then fades ENE from there it seems. Occludes I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Goes to town in the GOM 976mb Bombs away... you guys get smoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Def a subtle shift east...prob saves places like ORH and up to ASH from taint on this run...any meaningful taint anyway. It is still one of the more western runs though overall. You know how I feel..I think at least up here it'll end up further SE. Doesn't matter to me, I don't think this is more than an inch or two here before a change over unless it ends up 30+ outside of ACK. But we're still about 3 days out and given this winters track record I'd say we're still going to see a 60-100 mile bump in the track up here from "consensus" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks to go directly over the Cape around 982mb. 25-30 miles SE this run...closer to 12z ensembles actually. This would have powderfreak going bonkers if he wasn't already expecting the 2 by 4 to the back of the head. Great track for E NY and VT at 5H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Def a subtle shift east...prob saves places like ORH and up to ASH from taint on this run...any meaningful taint anyway. It is still one of the more western runs though overall. I don't get any EURO material.. so this is painful. What does this run translate for me and Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Could someone possibly provide a Euro text output for KBOS? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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