Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 big hit for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah it's a great snow for us but powder is tying the noose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not looking like a huge hit, maybe something a bit better than the GFS, but pretty "meh" overall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sorry for the OT on a busy night for the board....I'm listening to the radio show and I was wondering who the NE guy is who's on there? Can't see the names of the people on the link I'm using. Back on topic....NAM....Yeah! 14.4/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 7h is just beautiful, front end and CCB, qpf queens would fret but that's one beautiful run for my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nam isnt great for anyone 7h lift is ok hr 69 then meh after. 5h lift non existant. Weak overall and nam has slight nw bias so im wondering whats up w it shiftin this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yeah, i like that solution. lol. occludes right around the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah it's a great snow for us but powder is tying the noose. Ride trends this year. Perhaps the 12z EURO was the furthest W we'll see. We'll know better by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sorry for the OT on a busy night for the board....I'm listening to the radio show and I was wondering who the NE guy is who's on there? Can't see the names of the people on the link I'm using. Back on topic....NAM....Yeah! 14.4/8 I think its Scott(CoastalWx) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yeah that NAM run isn't going to thrill any CT posters with a QPF fetish. Pretty stark differences from EC at this point. NAM suggests shoreline has best chance of getting into deformation snows...while the Euro has us over to drizzle after a front end thumb and deformation band going way west.. Something in between would be sweet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Real 0z suite starts at 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 500mb makes no sense to me. A slower kicker doesn't equate to a further east/weaker solution. Looking at meso analysis, the NAM initialized pretty crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Time for the real models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 7h lift just goes poof between hr 66 to 69 to 72 as it rotated from s coast N. weak nw side lift. Qpf looks more impressive than lift to me. Not that i think nam is right. It is a bridge jumped for northern mid atlantic to nyc as well. Euro caving this year wouldn't surprise me thou. Im hopin amped and wawa bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nam isnt great for anyone 7h lift is ok hr 69 then meh after. 5h lift non existant. Weak overall and nam has slight nw bias so im wondering whats up w it shiftin this much.I will take my 8-10 it shows verbatim thank you plus that depiction is perfect for me. I believe something in between Euro NAM GFS will shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Finally its the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm interested in the model diagnostic discussion more than just bashing the NAM. It looks suspicious to me, like the model didn't get some key data points in the initialization. They'll probably come with their usual header of, 'any errors did not seem to affect the models,' but this run appears to suspiciously buck trend. I will say that the nose of the impulse's jet has just entered over land, so seeing morphology may or may not have merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Finally its the Nam Ok don't 5 post me cuz we're lull before GFS.....patience is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This run easily 6-12 for BOS, mostly snow with little taint it appears based on colder levels above. The low stalls east of the Cape, as did the 18z GFS. A good deal of the precip falls during that time, as h850 and h925 cool. They never get above 0C. At least the trend is in the right direction, for MBY anyway. But it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does this mean for interior central mass northern conn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah this is a confusing run, data ingest or not... Even with the dynamics it has within the single run, that deep layer trajectory through the N wall of the Gulf theta-e source should have transported a helluva lot more moisture N than it does. It's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does this mean for interior central mass northern conn? Not much , its the nam That being said , I'd watch cmc/ukie to see if they are east Euro is pretty much. Huge tonite and tommorrow 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I will take my 8-10 it shows verbatim thank you plus that depiction is perfect for me. I believe something in between Euro NAM GFS will shake out. I think the NAM is indicative of where the Euro may go later. Those two models have suffered from some of the same issues in this type of pattern. What it did was adjust the two main lobes of energy to a more positive stance which leads to a later/east development. AKA the GFS. I thought the RGEM was going that way today at 12z but didn't. So we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z RGEM is flopping the same way this run. Not surprisingly the system running along the gulf is faster than in previous runs. Same thing we've seen multiple times recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nam is pretty much the ideal solution for the southeast posters. That's about as good as it gets. Still a fragile setup regardless Truth probably ultimately lies somewhere east of the euro and west of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think the NAM is indicative of where the Euro may go later. Those two models have suffered from some of the same issues in this type of pattern. What it did was adjust the two main lobes of energy to a more positive stance which leads to a later/east development. AKA the GFS. I thought the RGEM was going that way today at 12z but didn't. So we'll see. I think most folks who have posted has suggested that the EC was likely too far west of what would ultimately play out (though, PF, Hippy, and I have ardently wished it would). If that in fact is the case--and I think we'll see that tonight--the end result will be happy folks in central mass/eastern CT and points east cleaning up. My 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think most folks who have posted has suggested that the EC was likely too far west of what would ultimately play out (though, PF, Hippy, and I have ardently wished it would). If that in fact is the case--and I think we'll see that tonight--the end result will be happy folks in central mass/eastern CT and points east cleaning up. My 2 cents. Euro IMO was suffering from the biases it's been having and NCEP probably did the right thing in tossing it today in the diagnostic. If this plays out it's a shame because I once uber reliable model inside of 4 days is now.... RGEM has the same alignment as the NAM. It's rushing the s/w along the gulf coast allowing for the low to develop further down much like NCEP talked about earlier. This still doesn't change anything for MBY, still too warm for here but areas just N&W should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Finally its the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro IMO was suffering from the biases it's been having and NCEP probably did the right thing in tossing it today in the diagnostic. If this plays out it's a shame because I once uber reliable model inside of 4 days is now.... RGEM has the same alignment as the NAM. It's rushing the s/w along the gulf coast allowing for the low to develop further down much like NCEP talked about earlier. This still doesn't change anything for MBY, still too warm for here but areas just N&W should do well. I think its the typial 75/25 compromise in favor of the ECMWF right now. It's been overamped at 84 hours quite often in the past. Now if it ends up being something outside of the benchmark, then that is a total fail on the Euro. We'll see how it looks tonight. My guess is less amped but not by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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