TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's nice to at least be confident in plowable for interior SNE. Going to be a little tricky tracking the taint. Shame we dont have antecedent HP. May be incredible fun for all if occlusion holds off till it gets closer to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 what id give for 1/27/11 a bit further nw and slower...i still reread nyc thread for that epic event on occasion....just missed the super heavy stuff here from that one That was a ridiculous band that went through on 1/27/11. I have a feeling the R/S line will be further north and west with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That was a ridiculous band that went through on 1/27/11. I have a feeling the R/S line will be further north and west with this event.Think I was at Bridgton for that one. Final totals for BOS, Will, Kevin, Steve, Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAVGEM at 12z looked like the GFS 18z just moved way west and has a ton of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can you provide snowfall (perhaps a map) from that storm? Wasn't in the country for that one. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CBQQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fwinter_storm_summaries%2Fevent_reviews%2F2011%2FMid-Atlantic_Northeast_WinterStorm_Jan2011.pdf&ei=s2j5UtzoAYb80gGxlYGoDg&usg=AFQjCNEMjXULt0YaZZbLarln9Cttfp_PTQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Think I was at Bridgton for that one. Final totals for BOS, Will, Kevin, Steve, Ray?Steph had 13.5.. I had 16.. Gay had 12.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Only 8.0" here (probably me) meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CBQQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fwinter_storm_summaries%2Fevent_reviews%2F2011%2FMid-Atlantic_Northeast_WinterStorm_Jan2011.pdf&ei=s2j5UtzoAYb80gGxlYGoDg&usg=AFQjCNEMjXULt0YaZZbLarln9Cttfp_PTQI think this system will have a map placed further north and west with the heavier totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/displayEvent.php?event=Jan_26-27_2011&element=snow Thanks. Just watched a Youtube clip of Harvey from that morning. Pretty cool band that pivoted through. 1-3"/hr snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Think I was at Bridgton for that one. Final totals for BOS, Will, Kevin, Steve, Ray?17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is this a mostly rain event for Nrn RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Steph had 13.5.. I had 16.. Gay had 12.5DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...HARTFORD COUNTY... GLASTONBURY 17.0 1020 AM 1/27 SPOTTER SOUTH WINDSOR 15.0 825 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO MANCHESTER 14.8 607 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO SUFFIELD 14.2 601 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO ENFIELD 13.5 809 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO WETHERSFIELD 13.0 801 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO ROCKY HILL 12.5 544 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO EAST WINDSOR 12.0 813 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO WINDSOR LOCKS 12.0 700 AM 1/27 BRADLEY AIRPORT BRISTOL 12.0 730 AM 1/27 WEST HARTFORD 11.0 159 PM 1/27 HAM RADIO AVON 9.5 614 AM 1/27 BURLINGTON 9.0 603 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO EAST FARMINGTON HEIG 9.0 554 AM 1/27 SPOTTER GRANBY (2MI SW) 8.0 1018 AM 1/27 NWS EMPLOYEE NORTH GRANBY 6.5 700 AM 1/27 GRANBY 6.0 803 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO ...TOLLAND COUNTY... STAFFORDVILLE 19.0 757 AM 1/27 CO-OP STAFFORD 18.0 611 AM 1/27 STAFFORD SPRINGS 16.0 949 AM 1/27 TOLLAND 16.0 616 AM 1/27 COVENTRY 15.0 1033 AM 1/27 GENERAL PUBLIC ELLINGTON 13.0 807 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO STORRS 13.0 107 PM 1/27 VERNON 13.0 609 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO ...WINDHAM COUNTY... MOOSUP 17.5 901 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All around 1/27/11 sounded like a fantastic event. Decent analog with definite differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Model diagnostic disco was a bit more candid than the normal tonality... ON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS IN ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE PLAUSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE VERY MEANINGFUL STRENGTH/TRACK DIFFERENCES. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THE TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WHILE ALSO BEING VERY STRONGLY DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW TRACK THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON DAY 2...AND THEN FARTHER EAST...SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON DAY 3. GIVEN THAT THE PARENT UPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW...WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WE OMITTED THE CANADIAN FROM THIS CONSENSUS AS ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAST.THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY 14/00Z.AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is this a mostly rain event for Nrn RI?Correct me if I'm wrong I think everyone thumps on the front end to the tune to at least 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is this a mostly rain event for Nrn RI? Couple inches of snow first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Couple inches of snow first (at least) FYP. Too early to speculate, but initial thump (even on coastal hugger depictions) gives N RI a good front ender. N RI does well, decent topography and more western longitude. Waiting for 12z tomorrow though. The envelope (between the GFS and EURO) is large enough to have great effects on sensible weather from place to place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FYP. Too early to speculate, but initial thump (even on coastal hugger depictions) give N RI a good front ender. N RI does well, decent topography and more western longitude. Waiting for 12z tomorrow though. The envelope (between the GFS and EURO) is large enough to have great effects on sensible weather from place to place.The NW corner of RI (Burrillville, Foster/Glocester) maybe a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong I think everyone thumps on the front end to the tune to at least 2-4"?minimum I saw in CT was SECT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 2-4? So I should not be going for a foot at ALL?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This has the look of an arcing super-band. Get under that and you go big. Outside that band, snow totals cut-off, but someone is getting smoked in the mid-Atlantic and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAVGEM at 12z looked like the GFS 18z just moved way west and has a ton of precip when navy goes west it is going west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 when navy goes west it is going west. Does the NAVGEM still have an east bias since they "upgraded" it from NOGAPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This has the look of an arcing super-band. Get under that and you go big. Outside that band, snow totals cut-off, but someone is getting smoked in the mid-Atlantic and northeast.yes and when I was referencing front end hellacious thump, the Euro individual Ens have many members with 1 inch qpf in 6 hrs slamming into NE with below zero 850s. Just a thumping, that's 2-3 per hour stuff, easy to see how those Euro weenie snow maps were printing out 6-12 inch front end stuff. Now if that happens and you combined that with a CCb some one is going to get crushed with a 15-18, and details to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This has the look of an arcing super-band. Get under that and you go big. Outside that band, snow totals cut-off, but someone is getting smoked in the mid-Atlantic and northeast. As mentioned by RunAwayIceCube Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This has the look of an arcing super-band. Get under that and you go big. Outside that band, snow totals cut-off, but someone is getting smoked in the mid-Atlantic and northeast. When I said Jan 2000 I meant something like this, but further east when it approaches our latitude...not that it's actually an analog or anything. I probably shouldn't even throw the word around since my words may get spun around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That NAM sim radar looked a bit like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 when navy goes west it is going west. Why is this? Always a tried and true model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As mentioned by RunAwayIceCube i really like that....SN change perhaps. but yea, it just has that feast or famine look. the forecasters can paint a general 12-16" swatch in an area and some locals get 6" and call it a bust then the guy down the street comes running at you naked cuz he just lost his yard stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does the NAVGEM still have an east bias since they "upgraded" it from NOGAPS? good question. anyone know? it used to be a good rule to make the weenies feel better if it was dicey set up. "Nogaps West! Nogaps West!" It was true alot and the weenies loved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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