RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gfs rarely good with wrappers...surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 True about those events. I don't think this will be as deep Probably right...mid levels look great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm sort of surprised some on here seem so bought into the ECM verbatim. My gut since yesterday is that the CCB ends up in your next of the woods Blizz....HFD-ORH-PWM type axis. I'm with you there, Scott. I'd feel pretty good if I were east of 91 on this. This has eastern shift on it. Note: I feel good where I am, but I don't expect an EC placement. I hope to be proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What do mets see as the high end on totals for this..wherever the jacks might end up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What do mets see as the high end on totals for this..wherever the jacks might end up? Prob 15-18" or so. Assuming this is a pretty well formed cyclone...if for some reason it craps out more and tries to string itself out, then that upper bound is obviously less, but I think that latter scenario has a low chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Prob 15-18" or so. Assuming this is a pretty well formed cyclone...if for some reason it craps out more and tries to string itself out, then that upper bound is obviously less, but I think that latter scenario has a low chance of happening. Any worries of this occluding rather quickly and shutting off moisture inflow? Looks at some runs over the past few days...I know GFS...can't remember if Euro had it but the GFS occludes the system just off to our south an QPF quickly goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Prob 15-18" or so. Assuming this is a pretty well formed cyclone...if for some reason it craps out more and tries to string itself out, then that upper bound is obviously less, but I think that latter scenario has a low chance of happening. I'd agree with those amounts... jackpot area likely in the 12-18" range. Down in the mid-Atlantic maybe some folks hit 18-24"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Prob 15-18" or so. Assuming this is a pretty well formed cyclone...if for some reason it craps out more and tries to string itself out, then that upper bound is obviously less, but I think that latter scenario has a low chance of happening.Interior question.. Would they be looking at wet low 30's snow or more like mid-upper 20's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Interior question.. Would they be looking at wet low 30'd snow or more like mid-upper 20's? Wow, uber weenie questions..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow, uber weenie questions..lol.Just trying to follow the "storm mode". Hopefully someone can answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well the 18z GFS is about as un-exciting as a 984mb low can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well the 18z GFS is about as un-exciting as a 984mb low can be.remember 1/27/11, and carbon copy GFS BS, still gives me warning level and hey nice follow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS still really far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS still really far east.totally feeling it bro, man with the upcoming chances, epicosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS still really far east. What are you thinking now? NWS was favoring a GFS ukie nam combo, do you think they stick with that or that the euro has the better grasp of the situation. Ideally it would be gefs track with euro intensity right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS still really far east.Typical southern stream issues. Think of all our biggies. GFS camp does this every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Will have to see what the models do once that energy comes onshore in the PAC NW. I imagine once that happens unless something goes haywire we should be close to locking onto a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Typical southern stream issues. Think of all our biggies. GFS camp does this every time Do you want the Euro given the potential taint issues for your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do you want the Euro given the point taint issues for your location?NAM works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do you want the Euro given the point taint issues for your location?Like most of the mets have stated.. They think the euro is too amped and west and will correct east like it typically does . They've told you to blend Euro/GFS 75/25 and that's you're likely outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Your top 15 analog composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What are you thinking now? NWS was favoring a GFS ukie nam combo, do you think they stick with that or that the euro has the better grasp of the situation. Ideally it would be gefs track with euro intensity right? Yeah GEFS with euro intensity would be weenie love lol. Personally I favor a 75/25 or so Euro/GFS. I think GFS is too far east, although a bit interesting a new run closer to the event and even it's enaembles are east. Doesn't really change my opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1/27/11 is now number 1 analog in CIpS 72 hour frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wonder what mets back before the age of computers would be predicting based on the pattern recognition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 what id give for 1/27/11 a bit further nw and slower...i still reread nyc thread for that epic event on occasion....just missed the super heavy stuff here from that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wonder what mets back before the age of computers would be predicting based on the pattern recognition Im not sure, but odds are, it would be incorrect! Forecasts have gotten so much better now. I remember being a kid back in the early '60s Id go off skating for the day or something with a forecast that it would be sunny for the rest of the day and that night, and when I'd get home, my dad would ask me, 'have you checked the forecast? ' Back then, we didnt have winter storm warnings; we had Heavy Snow warnings, which in se NY meant > 4 in. Frequently the forecast would be incorrect even within 12 hrs! And by 'incorrect', I mean a change from sunny and cold to Heavy Snow warnings! That you dont see too often anymore. Just as frequently, a storm would be progged to move from OBX up the coast, attended by its requisite 'heavy snow warning'.. Flurries would start, and, at night, 2 hrs later, the stars would be out.. WTF? Of course, OTS it would bend... The bad busts happened frequently in both directions! Also, the 3rd day of a 3 day forecast ( which pretty much was as far as they dared to venture into the future in a typical forecast ) was accorded about the same respect as hr 168 in our current regime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1/27/11 is now number 1 analog in CIpS 72 hour frame Can you provide snowfall (perhaps a map) from that storm? Wasn't in the country for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Weird too see gfs ensembles east of an already east outlier op run. Makes you pause anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Weird too see gfs ensembles east of an already east outlier op run. Makes you pause anyway Yea, it does.. There would be some serious toaster dipping should this model school every other form of guidance in this event... Hate to even think about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can you provide snowfall (perhaps a map) from that storm? Wasn't in the country for that one. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/displayEvent.php?event=Jan_26-27_2011&element=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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