CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GGEM ensembles are a hair SE of the BM...but I do not give them that much weight. So what we have is basically the EC on the western envelope, the GFS/GGEM on the right. As usual, my thought (and probably others) is that the EC will tick a little east and the GFS correct west and a little stronger. I like Will's 75/25 reference he made in favor of the EC...I could see that. Of course we all may be wrong, but that's my guess. My only pause is that I feel these systems don't ever really correct east much if at all. However, this pattern may be the reason why it will. I'm more bullish on a further west track similar to the EC then the GGEM ensembles...put it that way. Perhaps, not as far as the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well again I don't see it as compact either. I think it will have a pretty large precip shield. Yeah I'm not saying it'll happen, you just have to laugh at it after the struggles up here this winter. Not many times we would get shut-out with a SFC low track like that up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 One thing that is creeping up on us here is: earlier consensus in the models than has been typically the case for this season. The UKMET, GGEM, Euro, now this NAM are for all intents and purposes about the same thinking... and it's 84 hours away. It's been more difficult to get a deterministic impression so early in the game this season. Not that we are "determined" at this point ... but that we are getting there pretty early. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Welcome! Where in R.I. ? Will make a big difference with this storm as modeled currently. Kent County, west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 While waiting for this storm to unfold in the northeast, it will be interesting to see if the ice storm is as bad as some are predicting down south. CNN's met is calling for 1.0 million without power in the mid-south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 By the way, the leading indicators for this thread are still in play have persisted. Rising PNA with a fairly notable dip - albeit transient -- in the NAO domain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 While waiting for this storm to unfold in the northeast, it will be interesting to see if the ice storm is as bad as some are predicting down south. CNN's met is calling for 1.0 million without power in the mid-south. It does look like it could be bad down there, and considering that they are recovering from the one they had a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This one looks like it will have a super nail biting nw gradient....could be 12"+ in a local and just flurries like 10 miles nw.I don't know about that. Could be an interesting final accum map I guess. As depicted I don't think the gradient would be that severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 While waiting for this storm to unfold in the northeast, it will be interesting to see if the ice storm is as bad as some are predicting down south. CNN's met is calling for 1.0 million without power in the mid-south.Pretty populated area. 1 million seems easy to hit esp if the infrastructure has not been tested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Excellent, best storm of the 13-14 winter, well at least for central and northern NE. ptype issues, but can't see otherwise how this one isn't a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It does look like it could be bad down there, and considering that they are recovering from the one they had a couple weeks ago. chad myers @chadmyerscnn 42m Biggest Ice storm in yrs coming to cities in the Southeast. Millions will be without power. Watch @wolfblitzer for the latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty populated area. 1 million seems easy to hit esp if the infrastructure has not been tested Yep. I misread. He said "millions". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yep. I misread. He said "millions".That makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The part II of this thread should be titled, "The great SQL storm of February 2014" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I keep envisioning a radar similar to Jan 2000...not exactly geographically similar, but the overall gist of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z NAM looks great. 1"+ for most and mostly snow even kbos. ORH looked the best though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I keep envisioning a radar similar to Jan 2000...not exactly geographically similar, but the overall gist of it.How was the snowfall gradient on that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z NAM looks great. 1"+ for most and mostly snow even kbos. ORH looked the best though.Pretty awesome snow growth up here. Big mid level omega in the SGZ. Of course it won't verify like the NAM has it, but someone is going to get pounded in that deformation axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How was the snowfall gradient on that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thanks, Chris. Pretty odd looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea no ORH is not getting 3-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't bother with the snow totals for that. I'm just talking about the look of the storm for the east coast as a whole radar wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 BGM has the big nada for east/central NY so they aren't buying this coming very close to the coast. This is going to be a real nail biter for upstate NY and Vermont. 50 miles either way...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't know about that. Could be an interesting final accum map I guess. As depicted I don't think the gradient would be that severe Ask boxing day 2010 folks in nw nj...even nemo on west edge was steep drop off. These wound up systems....tough for west side hoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty awesome snow growth up here. Big mid level omega in the SGZ. Of course it won't verify like the NAM has it, but someone is going to get pounded in that deformation axis. image.jpg image.jpg With a track near ACK that I envision, it'll probably be somewhere between you and me. Probably closer to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The evil JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS still isn't biting on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The evil JMA demon.jpg It's not really a bonus to have the JMA agreeing with the Euro...JMHO. GFS still not biting. I still like NOAA's Model Diagnostic. It should track outside of the Cape* (which makes no different IMBY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gfs still pretty far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ask boxing day 2010 folks in nw nj...even nemo on west edge was steep drop off. These wound up systems....tough for west side hoods. True about those events. I don't think this will be as deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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