Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is there a pet name for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nobody cares about 3-4 day out first snowfall guesses. Lets talk about the players at play, the evolution of this is awesome and unique. Certainly the more west one is the better . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z Euro ENS at h72 has a 991 low just south of VA Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 09z SREFs are just SSW of the BM withe SLP at the end of the run and it's moving NE. 15z SREF's look east from 9Z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nobody cares about 3-4 day out first snowfall guesses. Lets talk about the players at play, the evolution of this is awesome and unique. Certainly the more west one is the better . I'd beg to differ, a lot of people like to hear first guesses. But 3-4 days out is definitely going to have some large error bars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hour 84 its just east of NJ moving NNE. Should be a hair east of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is there a pet name for this storm? Winter storm bungholio because someone is going to be puckering up come Thursday? Nceps point on the euro is very valid. Doesn't mean it's wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ensembles similar to op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hour 84 its just east of NJ moving NNE. Should be a hair east of the OP.it pretty much mirrors the op. that's expected at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hour 84 its just east of NJ moving NNE. Should be a hair east of the OP. Looked pretty close to dead nuts to the 12z op, A tic colder maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Winter storm bungholio because someone is going to be puckering up come Thursday? Nceps point on the euro is very valid. Doesn't mean it's wrong though. Do you mean this part?: GIVEN THAT THE PARENT UPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW...WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS This has been an issue all winter, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ensembles similar to op Yeah they look a hair slower, though. That's pretty damn consistent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ensembles similar to op They look pretty close to me. Maybe a few miles east? not much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 it pretty much mirrors the op. that's expected at this range That's pretty damn consistent for the ENS. They've wavered between TAN and the Cape for the last 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Cape cod and SE MA has had their fair share this winter, its time to shine for the interior folks and get back towards climo Breaking news, you are better than climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 A hair warmer than the op too, but that could be noise or dynamics doing that. Pretty dam close and track locking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Breaking news, you are better than climo. AIDTUWPITM (As I didnt think until Will proved it to me)... Anyhoo... thoughts on caution flags? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Some met named Ryan in CT made a post on FB that summed things up perfectly Our computer models are showing a pretty good sized nor'easter on Thursday across the northeast. The European model (attached) has the low hugging the coast which would favor a mixed bag. Track will be everything and 50 miles east or west will be huge! We'll know a lot more by tomorrow but for now expect a messy storm on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So what's all the worrying about for SNE? That doesn't look like congrats ALB-NNE. And holy crap ATL. Yea that's amazing for Georgia, holy heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea that's amazing for Georgia, holy heck He missed the point, that's where the good axis of snow is..it doesn't mean washed away over ORH..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 AIDTUWPITM (As I didnt think until Will proved it to me)... Anyhoo... thoughts on caution flags? Track. Hopefully it ticks east...I think it will..but remember srn stream systems many times like to stay west. I can't see this going east much. Maybe a track near or just east of ACK was my guess earlier. Still a good 24 hrs to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Some met named Ryan in CT made a post on FB that summed things up perfectly Our computer models are showing a pretty good sized nor'easter on Thursday across the northeast. The European model (attached) has the low hugging the coast which would favor a mixed bag. Track will be everything and 50 miles east or west will be huge! We'll know a lot more by tomorrow but for now expect a messy storm on Thursday. He's terrible. Don't listen to him. It looks like a classic messy storm. Litchfield Hills/Berkshires/VT jackpot with the scraps for the rest of us. With any luck...those "scraps" will be quite fun. I don't think we'll really have a handle on that until tomorrow morning. Lots of issues including dry slotting, boundary layer warmth, and (most concerning) a flood of mid level warmth ahead of this thing. There's a reason why a cold high with plenty of confluence to the north is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 He's terrible. Don't listen to him. It looks like a classic messy storm. Litchfield Hills/Berkshires/VT jackpot with the scraps for the rest of us. With any luck...those "scraps" will be quite fun. I don't think we'll really have a handle on that until tomorrow morning. Lots of issues including dry slotting, boundary layer warmth, and (most concerning) a flood of mid level warmth ahead of this thing. There's a reason why a cold high with plenty of confluence to the north is important. The initial hellacious thump is a snow bomb then dry slot per Euro your FA is 6-12 verbatim . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 He's terrible. Don't listen to him. It looks like a classic messy storm. Litchfield Hills/Berkshires/VT jackpot with the scraps for the rest of us. With any luck...those "scraps" will be quite fun. I don't think we'll really have a handle on that until tomorrow morning. Lots of issues including dry slotting, boundary layer warmth, and (most concerning) a flood of mid level warmth ahead of this thing. There's a reason why a cold high with plenty of confluence to the north is important. I would love to end up in the CCB of this thing. All models have some pretty hefty VV values and whoever ends up just northwest of that 700mb low track and in the area just enough in the cold side to be all snow is going to have some ripping hours of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GYX getting much more aggressive on the P+C forecast here for My SQL storm. Thursday Snow likely after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Every met on board except Ryan. Hopefully he joins the party after 00z goes east a bit so we have total agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Regardless for the interior especially..it's a very wintry event. I have a tough time seeing Will and Kevin above 32F so sleet and ZR possibly there..probably even Ray too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 a lot of people are going to be crying in freezing drizzle while 30 miles west is getting +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It brings the dryslot up into most of NJ/SE NY and a chunk of SNE with the CCB back over E NY/down through interior PA. My guess it that it is too wrapped verbatim up as you seem to agree...but that certainly explains why the precip shuts off pretty quickly after the initial WAA burst of heavy snow. We'll have to watch it since if this goes about 50 miles E of the Euro, then a lot of folks in the populated centers are going to also get CCB snows. Feeling good for up here---might taint, especially if it comes any further west. But that's unlikely. Hopefully the Berks can stay west of the dry slot. GYX getting much more aggressive on the P+C forecast here for My SQL storm. LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Every met on board except Ryan. Hopefully he joins the party after 00z goes east a bit so we have total agreement I was going to delete this post but figured I'd just respond in the open. What the hell are you talking about? Please find one post that said that I'm not on board. I think virtually every met thinks this looks really good for NW CT/W MA/NYS/VT. East of there it's more up in the air depending on just how quickly the warmth moves in. Could it be a big event - absolutely? Could it be a real mess with rain issues on top of sleet? Sure. There's a reason why cold, dry anchored highs to the north of us are found in most snowstorms. I'm not just making this up or pulling this out of thin air. Reel it in or else the warnings will be flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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