SnowMan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can we get some rationale behind this? Peronally thinking the Euro is too slow with the kicker, but probably has a good handle on the southern stream energy. 75/25 Euro/GFS compromise right now IMO. Sure...I thought I said the Euro show it over tan...I figured slight east kick takes it over MVY or ACK... I don't buy the GFS solution over the benchmark. It has not handled the Southern stream well...I think Euro is the way to go when the southern stream is involved. That said, there will be a slight tick east as we get closer I think, but I don't think it will be enough to put it over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sure...I thought I said the Euro show it over tan...I figured slight east kick takes it over MVY or ACK... I don't buy the GFS solution over the benchmark. It has not handled the Southern stream well...I think Euro is the way to go when the southern stream is involved. That said, there will be a slight tick east as we get closer I think, but I don't think it will be enough to put it over the benchmark. Just out of curiosity...do you believe the Euro has handled energy coming out of the deep SW well this past month or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sure...I thought I said the Euro show it over tan...I figured slight east kick takes it over MVY or ACK... I don't buy the GFS solution over the benchmark. It has not handled the Southern stream well...I think Euro is the way to go when the southern stream is involved. That said, there will be a slight tick east as we get closer I think, but I don't think it will be enough to put it over the benchmark. I actually agree with that. I think the BM is the outer goal post, and the 12z Euro is the other goal post, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is not going over the MVY or ACK, its going southeast of the islands. Even with the amped up solutions the furthest west is Canal. Regardless, not a favorable track for Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So what's all the worrying about for SNE? That doesn't look like congrats ALB-NNE. And holy crap ATL. Seriously...ATL couldn't handle 2" the other week. They get a foot they'll be shut down for a month. As for up here...the front end thump on the Euro means business. 8-12" region wide away from the Cape. If this thing comes as far west as the Euro wants to bring it...the Euro solution is probably the best we can hope for...with a massive dry slot accompanying the low-mid level torch. Plenty of time to get this thing east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well it seems folks think this will track in a manner that makes their backyard the whitest. Now that shocking news is cleared up, the ECMWF ensembles should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just out of curiosity...do you believe the Euro has handled energy coming out of the deep SW well this past month or two? Not like it has of year's past, but it is better than the GFS at it...or at least it seems like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Seriously...ATL couldn't handle 2" the other week. They get a foot they'll be shut down for a month. As for up here...the front end thump on the Euro means business. 8-12" region wide away from the Cape. If this thing comes as far west as the Euro wants to bring it...the Euro solution is probably the best we can hope for...with a massive dry slot accompanying the low-mid level torch. Plenty of time to get this thing east though. The dynamical WAA thump on the Euro is pretty awesome actually. It would certainly be a net-gainer even in your area. Some 35F cold rain and a dryslot isn't going to wipe out 6"+ of paste on the front end...not a chance. We'll see how this trends, but my gut says the Euro will begin to tick back SE a shade...probably tonight, but def by tomorrow 12z. But I've been wrong before and I will be again...so we'll see what she wants to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well it seems folks think this will track in a manner that makes their backyard the whitest. Now that shocking news is cleared up, the ECMWF ensembles should be interesting. LOL. I dont see this thing going over BOS, Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don Sutherland just posted this on the NYC forum... Below are select 850 mb temperatures forecast by the 2/10 12z run of the ECMWF: http://s4.postimg.org/pkz504wrh/02102014_2.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Start time around 75 hrs away for CNE if that can be nailed down at all. Looking at the American models, seems to be always starting at the very end of the NAM run 3 runs in a row. Seems to be a poorly modeled system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Regardless, not a favorable track for Cape Cod, MA. Boston first call: 3-6inches of snow followed by heavy rain and ds. Euros back on her high horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 i thought this run looked colder than 0z until about the 84 hour panel. probably too wrapped up post 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 LOL. I dont see this thing going over BOS, Scott. That wasn't directed at you, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Boston first call: 3-6inches of snow followed by heavy rain and ds. Euros back on her high horse. High horse or just plain high as a kite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 i thought this run looked colder than 0z until about the 84 hour panel. probably too wrapped up post 72 hours It was...at least north of philly ( I didn't check down south fo that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It only seems justified after two years with one coating in Baltimore they will see 18+ when I leave! But they deserve it. That's a really tough place to live for snowfall. Yes, and they've worked so hard for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 208 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 14/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== 12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== ...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS IN ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE PLAUSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE VERY MEANINGFUL STRENGTH/TRACK DIFFERENCES. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THE TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WHILE ALSO BEING VERY STRONGLY DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW TRACK THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON DAY 2...AND THEN FARTHER EAST...SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON DAY 3. GIVEN THAT THE PARENT UPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW...WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WE OMITTED THE CANADIAN FROM THIS CONSENSUS AS ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAST. THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY 14/00Z. AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanemacdonald23 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hello guys , nice to come across this forum . ! what are your thoughts for winds for Nova Scotia i know this isnt a canada forum but i would love your opinions . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD208 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 14/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...==============================================12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES==============================================NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TOSIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.==============================================...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS INALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLYALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURETHEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKSTO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BYTHURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AREPLAUSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE VERY MEANINGFUL STRENGTH/TRACKDIFFERENCES. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THETIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVEBEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WHILE ALSO BEING VERYSTRONGLY DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODELCONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW TRACK THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THESOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON DAY 2...AND THENFARTHER EAST...SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON DAY 3. GIVEN THAT THE PARENTUPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FASTZONAL FLOW...WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WE OMITTED THECANADIAN FROM THIS CONSENSUS AS ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAST.THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARDTHE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTHNOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ANDTHE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THELOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY14/00Z.AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHOREINTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BEYET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITHTHE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOMECONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Translated: snow bomb for SNE is favored by them particularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It was...at least north of philly ( I didn't check down south fo that).there's hardly any precip after temps get too warm. last night had more sleet (at least here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So, the perennial question: Where doth the rain/snowline lay at the height of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hello guys , nice to come across this forum . ! what are your thoughts for winds for Nova Scotia i know this isnt a canada forum but i would love your opinions . We have a fairly regular poster from Nova Scotia who posts here in the New England forum. Welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Boston first call: 3-6inches of snow followed by heavy rain and ds. Euros back on her high horse. That sounds reasonable. I would cautiously go 4-8" from Boston to ASH. Maybe 6-12" here. It's hard not to trust in the Euro to a point, even if not the hottest hand at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 there's hardly any precip after temps get too warm. last night had more sleet (at least here) It brings the dryslot up into most of NJ/SE NY and a chunk of SNE with the CCB back over E NY/down through interior PA. My guess it that it is too wrapped verbatim up as you seem to agree...but that certainly explains why the precip shuts off pretty quickly after the initial WAA burst of heavy snow. We'll have to watch it since if this goes about 50 miles E of the Euro, then a lot of folks in the populated centers are going to also get CCB snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 208 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 14/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== 12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== ...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS IN ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE PLAUSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE VERY MEANINGFUL STRENGTH/TRACK DIFFERENCES. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THE TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WHILE ALSO BEING VERY STRONGLY DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW TRACK THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON DAY 2...AND THEN FARTHER EAST...SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON DAY 3. GIVEN THAT THE PARENT UPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW...WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WE OMITTED THE CANADIAN FROM THIS CONSENSUS AS ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAST. THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY 14/00Z. AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. 100% agree. Euro may be having some issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Boston first call: 3-6inches of snow followed by heavy rain and ds. Euros back on her high horse. Jerry, I am more bullish than that. I think you might approach double digits. We'll know better soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 BOS 4-8" ORH 6-12" BDL 4-7" BED 5-10" is what I am thinking at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It brings the dryslot up into most of NJ/SE NY and a chunk of SNE with the CCB back over E NY/down through interior PA. My guess it that it is too wrapped verbatim up as you seem to agree...but that certainly explains why the precip shuts off pretty quickly after the initial WAA burst of heavy snow. We'll have to watch it since if this goes about 50 miles E of the Euro, then a lot of folks in the populated centers are going to also get CCB snows. i think it's wrapping the storm up and occluding it too quickly. i've seen the euro do this a number of times. when i saw the 72 hour panel i got really excited only to be scratching my head at the images afterward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Cape cod and SE MA has had their fair share this winter, its time to shine for the interior folks and get back towards climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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