Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't mind the 12z Euro solution, you cliff jumpers. Looks like a nice font-ender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The pattern hasn't really changed from the standpoint of little to no blocking. In fact, if anything, this pattern is even more progressive because we have a pretty zonal flow off the west coast and still have no Atlantic blocking. If we had a slower pattern, this would probably track through Buffalo. Put me in the euro over amplification camp then. I think 5h suggests a more GFS like look to me. IDK, between cape and ack is what I favor right now. Obviously a little weenie tendency there but standing back and looking without emotions it makes more sense given the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Put me in the final outcome at least a tick east camp. My gut. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro hugs the coast and would be good for NNE but I would be curious to see the ensamble members. I would be inclined to take the blend for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro MOS is out to 0z Friday (h84) and LCI is 0.65" already with another 0.5" to go. QPF means little at this point. I'm aware lol.Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html This looks like fun and honestly seems reasonable considering where the Euro just went which I expect to tick back east ever so slightly in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wxbell maps show the same for us but i know there not that good Interior MD and PA 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Put me in the final outcome at least a tick east camp. My gut. Same here. It won't matter for MBY anyway I feel we roast here after a couple of inches regardless. I think the Euro will prove too slow in the SW in the later stages as we approach the system which will change the alignment and nudge this east towards the others. I think it tracks SE of the Cape. But I admit earlier biases this winter may mean zero here and that's all that I'm relying on to lean that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wxbell maps show the same for us but i know there not that good Yeah, I did not see them for up here, They are based on 10:1 i think but there weenie maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT posted this on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This gives the NNE crowd some hope. That's dead on. Looks like 982ish over TAN. Nice deform banding across all of NNE. PF would love h90-96 Are you up in Lyndon right now? I'm assuming that you're loving that run as well, haha. Although not being a debbie downer (really, I'm not haha), I still favor a blend of all the guidance. We'll see the ECM slip east slowly over the next couple days, but have to admit I'm a little shocked it didn't this run. Sounds like some of the more amped GFES members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT posted this on FB So what's all the worrying about for SNE? That doesn't look like congrats ALB-NNE. And holy crap ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Are you up in Lyndon right now? I'm assuming that you're loving that run as well, haha. Although not being a debbie downer (really, I'm not haha), I still favor a blend of all the guidance. We'll see the ECM slip east slowly over the next couple days, but have to admit I'm a little shocked it didn't this run. Sounds like some of the more amped GFES members. Yeah, I'm here until May. And yeah, I'm surprised too. I think it'll end up near or just SE of the Cape. We will be scraped with light snows IMO. Euro is warning criteria though, LOL. Interested to see the ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So what's all the worrying about for SNE? That doesn't look like congrats ALB-NNE. That through hour 90, lol add 5-10" to that in NNE. For real though...I hate those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So what's all the worrying about for SNE? That doesn't look like congrats ALB-NNE. lol, I take those with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Same here. It won't matter for MBY anyway I feel we roast here after a couple of inches regardless. I think the Euro will prove too slow in the SW in the later stages as we approach the system which will change the alignment and nudge this east towards the others. I think it tracks SE of the Cape. But I admit earlier biases this winter may mean zero here and that's all that I'm relying on to lean that way. How do you think we torch with a southeast of the Cape track? That doesn't make sense. Ocean is at its coldest point of the year currently. I think we see a wet wind driven snow over the course of the storm, maybe 12" for our region, if it stays all snow, something similar to the Blizzard of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thinking the strength of the low is around 975mb at the benchmark. Then around 970mb east of Nantucket, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do you think we torch with a southeast of the Cape track? That doesn't make sense. Ocean is at its coldest point of the year currently. I think we see a wet wind driven snow over the course of the storm, maybe 12" for our region, if it stays all snow, something similar to the Blizzard of 2013. I have to do this man....I have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 People seem to suggest the kicker comes through ... well... quicker. Season has had a tendency towards a progressive pattern so I understand this thinking. Pattern has changed though hasn't it? Will? crying for mamas in nne and cryin for will in esne. Like where I sit. Perhaps the kicker can keep it from coming too far west, but at this point I think wsne CNE-lower 1/2 are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do you think we torch with a southeast of the Cape track? That doesn't make sense. Ocean is at its coldest point of the year currently. I think we see a wet wind driven snow over the course of the storm, maybe 12" for our region, if it stays all snow, something similar to the Blizzard of 2013. 3 word acronym - WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do you think we torch with a southeast of the Cape track? That doesn't make sense. Ocean is at its coldest point of the year currently. I think we see a wet wind driven snow over the course of the storm, maybe 12" for our region, if it stays all snow, something similar to the Blizzard of 2013. Why stop there? Just go damaging hurricane winds with 958mb hole in the atmosphere along with Jan '05 snows but heavy and wet snows toppling power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Cool option from WxBell if you're a subscriber...All 51 EPS members. 0z had many that looked like the 12z OP...some even farther west. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 euro shows pretty good storm next week for northern sections!! As for this storm all models show something for our area which is a plus 12z was great today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't think I've ever see green on teh Wunderground snow graphics. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think 958mb is quite a stretch but 960s is quite attainable in a situation like this where you have phasing energies from the northern and southern streams. Snow from GA to ME is a large swath of real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thinking the strength of the low is around 975mb at the benchmark. Then around 970mb east of Nantucket, MA. It's not going over the benchmark. Euro took it over TAN...I could see end result being the vineyard or ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's not going over the benchmark. Euro took it over TAN...I could see end result being the vineyard or ACK. This is not going over the MVY or ACK, its going southeast of the islands. Even with the amped up solutions the furthest west is Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 just looked and that kind of gives the 12 euro some credit lets see what the 12z members look like Cool option from WxBell if you're a subscriber...All 51 EPS members. 0z had many that looked like the 12z OP...some even farther west. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think 958mb is quite a stretch but 960s is quite attainable in a situation like this where you have phasing energies from the northern and southern streams. Snow from GA to ME is a large swath of real estate. It's not going over the benchmark. Euro took it over TAN...I could see end result being the vineyard or ACK. Can we get some rationale behind this? Peronally thinking the Euro is too slow with the kicker, but probably has a good handle on the southern stream energy. 75/25 Euro/GFS compromise right now IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do you think we torch with a southeast of the Cape track? That doesn't make sense. Ocean is at its coldest point of the year currently. I think we see a wet wind driven snow over the course of the storm, maybe 12" for our region, if it stays all snow, something similar to the Blizzard of 2013. I see virtually no chance this ends up being favorable for you and I. The only question is how much do we get before a quick changeover or how much unpleasantly cold rain do we get if it does manage to move offshore before it changes over to snow. It's just not our system, IMO Berkshire --> Sunapee --> Sunday River I think gets clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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