Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There's def some issues south of the pike and SE of 495 north of the pike...verbatim anyway. Tho my personal opinion is still that I think the Euro is a bit too amped when lookin at other guidance and the synoptic pattern. I'd probably weight the Euro the most, but with the typical 70/30 or 75/25 type split. Maybe this is the time it handles energy ejecting out of the SW perfectly. I still am skeptical and will be for another day. If that comes out a little faster we end up with a different solution (east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Too close for my liking, but it is the most western outlier. If ensemble mean is 50+ miles east I have some confidence this would go slightly east at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How does the follow-up wave look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, that is disconcerting for the prospects of an untainted event, aside from the N ORH hills. It's still early. Keep calm. Very complex event as a whole, still some working parts to be ironed out. However, you know what we hope verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hopefully the gfs starts moving west soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No QPF worries for MPM with that Euro track. lol Verbatim, probably a solid thumpy dump here in the NW lowlands before some taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It actually started off colder and the confluence to the north forced heights a bit lower at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would even taint for awhile here in Gray, ME if that verified. We could stand an east shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Too close for my liking, but it is the most western outlier. If ensemble mean is 50+ miles east I have some confidence this would go slightly east at 0z. 0z ENS were slightly east of the OP, but by maybe 25 miles. Interesting to see if they remain amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For NNE, I cannot say its a bad thing to have the Euro amped given the strong southern stream influence and how poorly the GFS handles that typically in the medium range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nice! I am all in...I think 10+ is a good starting point assuming we stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Addition to the pack on saturday as well on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man even like a 40 miles shift east is pretty dam huge for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ..and probably even BOS too I can wait for first box map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gonna come close to LI. Looks like congrats ALB to Dendrite. How I hope and pray. But I've lived in NYC and BOS, so despite my jackpot fetish, I would prefer not to totally screw people in my old stomping grounds. But I have a feeling if good precip get up into ENY, it will get ugly for southeastern parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z ENS were slightly east of the OP, but by maybe 25 miles. Interesting to see if they remain amped. Can you post qpf when you get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 People seem to suggest the kicker comes through ... well... quicker. Season has had a tendency towards a progressive pattern so I understand this thinking. Pattern has changed though hasn't it? Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man even like a 40 miles shift east is pretty dam huge for a lot of people. Man even like a 40 miles shift east is pretty dam huge for a lot of people. We always seem to get that east shift the last 36 hours..Hopefully it happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man even like a 40 miles shift east is pretty dam huge for a lot of people. Would bring the deformation snows east as well over a larger area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's an epic track for interior MD and into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty good swath of 1-1.50" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Interior MD and PA 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm assuming that progressive flow and lack of blocking means this is a pretty quick mover? 10-12 hour deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Interior MD and PA 18"+ It only seems justified after two years with one coating in Baltimore they will see 18+ when I leave! But they deserve it. That's a really tough place to live for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can you post qpf when you get it? Euro MOS is out to 0z Friday (h84) and LCI is 0.65" already with another 0.5" to go. QPF means little at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Put me in the final outcome at least a tick east camp. My gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 People seem to suggest the kicker comes through ... well... quicker. Season has had a tendency towards a progressive pattern so I understand this thinking. Pattern has changed though hasn't it? Will? The pattern hasn't really changed from the standpoint of little to no blocking. In fact, if anything, this pattern is even more progressive because we have a pretty zonal flow off the west coast and still have no Atlantic blocking. If we had a slower pattern, this would probably track through Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro MOS is out to 0z Friday (h84) and LCI is 0.65" already with another 0.5" to go. QPF means little at this point. Yeah, We know this will be juiced no matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You can see earlier what I meant by longitude being important as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 it's probably overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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