Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is the GFS over-doing the antecedent airmass? I think they are too quick to scour it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Some of those warm members are disorganized and lack a CCB. I think that is part of it, but they still look real mild too me for no reason. Doesn't make sense. You can see how even the westerly euro cutoff the warming.I think Paul Kocin said it best REMAINING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHEAST US IS BEING FORCED NOT BY RETREATING TROUGH EAST OF CANADA BUT BY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ENHANCING CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEAST CANADA KEEPING SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED OVER INTERIOR NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think Paul Kocin said it best REMAINING CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHEAST US IS BEING FORCED NOT BY RETREATING TROUGH EAST OF CANADA BUT BY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ENHANCING CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEAST CANADA KEEPING SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED OVER INTERIOR NORTHEAST. Yes that is part of the confluence. How that moves east and then northeast is very important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well source region and retreating high all argue for warmth, but the GFS models I think aren't very strong and hence allow warmer air to really flood in aloft. Less dynamic cooling and at the surface weaker ageostrophic flow to lock in more N-NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro similar through 66...maybe a smidge SW from 0z run EDIT: Better CCB vs 0z at h72. Similar location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro starts snow before daybreak Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Coastal hugger at hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 H 78 is almost dead on from 0z. Kicker is a hair slow actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gonna come close to LI. Looks like congrats ALB to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is gonna go over TAN again. Almost dead on at h84 vs 0z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its almost the same exact track but looks a shade stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sounds like an isothermal snowbomb for SNE Dec 1992 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Crush job Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sounds like an isothermal snowbomb for SNE Dec 1992 maybe? For Will and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its almost the same exact track but looks a shade stronger. It was 4mb stronger over Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This gives the NNE crowd some hope. That's dead on. Looks like 982ish over TAN. Nice deform banding across all of NNE. PF would love h90-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro warms below 850 mb to about Orange MA, but a big front ender even for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For Will and north. Everyone else is a rainer? With the CCB overhead I tend to doubt that's rain for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How does the Euro look for MBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 looks windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 IAD gets pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Everyone else is a rainer? With the CCB overhead I tend to doubt that's rain for everyone It's more of a front ender verbatim for you. CCB up north, but you get like 8" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 IAD gets pummeled. This run is interior Mid Atlantic FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sounds like an isothermal snowbomb for SNE Dec 1992 maybe? There's def some issues south of the pike and SE of 495 north of the pike...verbatim anyway. Tho my personal opinion is still that I think the Euro is a bit too amped when lookin at other guidance and the synoptic pattern. I'd probably weight the Euro the most, but with the typical 70/30 or 75/25 type split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, that is disconcerting for the prospects of an untainted event, aside from the N ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's more of a front ender verbatim for you. CCB up north, but you get like 8" or so. Plenty of time for the expected trends east..I feel very confident the interior stays all snow..and probably even BOS too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There's def some issues south of the pike and SE of 495 north of the pike...verbatim anyway. Tho my personal opinion is still that I think the Euro is a bit too amped when lookin at other guidance and the synoptic pattern. I'd probably weight the Euro the most, but with the typical 70/30 or 75/25 type split. My guess is a track near ACK or a hair SE. Just my gut. For the most part it sort of halted the west track, but was a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would even taint for awhile here in Gray, ME if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, that is disconcerting for the prospects of an untainted event, aside from the N ORH hills. yeah, not the best run, but still have plenty of time to finalize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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