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Feb 13-15 modeled event increased confidence now.


Typhoon Tip

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I haven't been this pumped for a storm in a long time.

Radio show,  heavy heavies, rain/snow lines, cf, nudity.

Wow.

 

I haven't been this pumped for a storm in a long time.

Radio show,  heavy heavies, rain/snow lines, cf, nudity.

Wow.

Beware gung ho until after tonight's runs. But there is an honest potential for us to have feet of snowpack after this miller a and clipper.

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12z GEFS Members.  Still a lot of timing differences.  A lot looked toasty.

 

attachicon.giff84.gif

 

 

I'm not sure the exact reason, but the GFS suite has been by far the warmest set of guidance. Even on benchmark tracks it has pretty mild mid-levels. I personally am not buying that though.

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I'm not sure the exact reason, but the GFS suite has been by far the warmest set of guidance. Even on benchmark tracks it has pretty mild mid-levels. I personally am not buying that though.

 

Some of those warm members are disorganized and lack a CCB. I think that is part of it, but they still look real mild too me for no reason. Doesn't make sense.  You can see how even the westerly euro cutoff the warming.

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Some of those warm members are disorganized and lack a CCB. I think that is part of it, but they still look real mild too me for no reason. Doesn't make sense.  You can see how even the westerly euro cutoff the warming.

 

Looks like Etaunton beat me to the ensembles... but yeah I was wondering what would cause those to look so warm at H85. 

 

One would think some of those solutions would at least dynamically go to a 0C at H85.  It seems excessively warm.

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Some of those warm members are disorganized and lack a CCB. I think that is part of it, but they still look real mild too me for no reason. Doesn't make sense.  You can see how even the westerly euro cutoff the warming.

Yeah I was thinking intensity has somewhat to do with it.  The deeper the cyclone, the more northerly the wind component should be as it hits the northeast.

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