CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even the warm bias (at the surface) GGEM has a big thump of snow for BOS in the ptype algorithms. BOS would be a tough forecast on some of these, but I think 128 corridor and NW would be golden. Even independent of the insolation issue models sometiems have, I notice that they will often also try and modify the airmass too quickly when it becomes pinched off from the source region...that is what we are seeing here. The cold airmass over us currently gets pinched off from the source region once the southern stream bowling ball detaches from the N stream flow. We'll see how those thermal profiles trend as we get closer, but I would expect them to tick colder if the track stays out near the BM or ACK. Obviously if we get a hugger, then that creates a new set of ptype issues that are seperate from the "modifying airmass" issue we are currently seeing on some guidance. Yeah I agree and with the CF on the GFS near 128...I think that is a tell tale sign of temps sub 30F or something like that. There is just no way with a track even like the GGEM has that temps are getting warm that far inland. What I did notice though was a warm tongue at 950 on the euro. That may play a factor somewhat over areas like interior CT, but details will change obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah I agree and with the CF on the GFS near 128...I think that is a tell tale sign of temps sub 30F or something like that. There is just no way with a track even like the GGEM has that temps are getting warm that far inland. What I did notice though was a warm tongue at 950 on the euro. That may play a factor somewhat over areas like interior CT, but details will change obviously. The Euro was def the furthest west track so if that came to fruition I'd expect a bit of a warm tongue at 950mb getting into those areas. My gut tells me the Euro is a bit too amped though given the synoptic pattern with the kicker and fairly progressive flow....but we'll find otu soon enough. Sometimes these southern streamers can juice up and get further NW than we think. OTOH, the kickers can often rear their heads later in the game and start inching the storm eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wills getting excited, that better, lol. Just saw the cluster tracks, In between ACK and the BM, classic heavy snow with mix SE MA. Folks worried about the cold, look at progged Dps and temps in NNE, look at surface wind direction, look at 850s, pretty classic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Seems like the low never really matures until it is in Nova Scotia, which is why most of the snow I get here in Philly is from WAA. I guess the kicker is playing a role there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro was def the furthest west track so if that came to fruition I'd expect a bit of a warm tongue at 950mb getting into those areas. My gut tells me the Euro is a bit too amped though given the synoptic pattern with the kicker and fairly progressive flow....but we'll find otu soon enough. Sometimes these southern streamers can juice up and get further NW than we think. OTOH, the kickers can often rear their heads later in the game and start inching the storm eastward. Euro was rather chilly even at BOS before it taints. The thing is, this is a rather cold airmass prior. SUb 510 thicknesses that are rotting prior to the storm's arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What would warmth at 950 do? Hard hat time, or wetter snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah I agree and with the CF on the GFS near 128...I think that is a tell tale sign of temps sub 30F or something like that. There is just no way with a track even like the GGEM has that temps are getting warm that far inland. What I did notice though was a warm tongue at 950 on the euro. That may play a factor somewhat over areas like interior CT, but details will change obviously. The warmth is definitely modeled to be below 850mb. GFS and NAM are both warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What would warmth at 950 do? Hard hat time, or wetter snow?intense rates might offset warming but let's see what Euro does, I still like this. Tomorrow could change to love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What would warmth at 950 do? Hard hat time, or wetter snow? It would be cold rain vs wet snow. You're nightmare storm 2010 MLK weekend saw 950mb warm tongue south of the pike. I am not overly concerned about it though right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd be excited if I lived inland too for sure. GEFS with a classic BM to sw tip of Nova Scotia track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd be excited if I lived inland too for sure. GEFS with a classic BM to sw tip of Nova Scotia track. You will be fine, tip toeing a massive CF. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd be excited if I lived inland too for sure. GEFS with a classic BM to sw tip of Nova Scotia track. Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Watch the kicker/clipper on the backside saturday........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd be excited if I lived inland too for sure. GEFS with a classic BM to sw tip of Nova Scotia track. How far inland? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Watch the kicker/clipper on the backside saturday........ nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How far inland? lol. Some good QPF for you, but the spine is right on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You remeber incorrectly. I had like 10" sorry, i clarified earlier, i meant the MA/NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How far inland? lol. I can't see qpf, but I'm guessing a BM to Nova Scotia track is good for Maine and prob at least C/S NH...but not so good for N VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 PF maybe 0.5" or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Some good QPF for you, but the spine is right on the line. I can't see qpf, but I'm guessing a BM to Nova Scotia track is good for Maine and prob at least C/S NH...but not so good for N VT. Yeah, steady as she goes this winter. But that's how it is sometimes...get into a certain rut in December and sometimes its hard to come out of it. Aside from getting lucky in that last one with some frontogenesis, the synoptic patterns just do not want to come together up here. We've made our peace though and got our one warning event... this should be another big hit for SNE up into E.NE. The follow up wave though interests me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 PF maybe 0.5" or so? Holy crap, on what? The GEFS? I was thinking like 0.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ukie at 72h looks like it would be a huge hit. Sound the alarms shall the EURO stand pat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Holy crap, on what? The GEFS? I was thinking like 0.1". Well that is like adding up 24 hrs worth. Just my guess. Anyways, it doesn't matter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sound the alarms shall the EURO stand pat. I think it holds serve or maybe a shade SE, Been pretty steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Bob what are your thoughts on the PVD-BOS corridor needs to see evolution wise for warning snows. I think that I exact revenge on the s shore for that January cirrus smoking fiasco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think that I exact revenge on the s shore for that January cirrus smoking fiasco.yeah this is a naked twister with the CF event as modeled for you. Euro will be enlightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh no, Radio show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think that I exact revenge on the s shore for that January cirrus smoking fiasco. I would say you were smoking CF exhaust more than cirrus since you weren't getting whiffed to be exact, lol. But anyway, I do agree that southeast areas look the least favorable at this point. Could be a pine punisher in your area. I like where most of the guidance is at this stage for interior SNE...even the CP interior. Euro being a bit "uncomfortably west" at 84-96 hours last night is probably a good thing given it has tended to be a bit too phase-happy in that time frame. We'll see what today brings, but I don't expect a big shift since that is not the Euro's M.O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think that I exact revenge on the s shore for that January cirrus smoking fiasco. climo says you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh no, Radio show Sometimes I forget this board is more than our own little region, haha. Its amazing the number of users and interest and stuff that happens to this board once the mid-Atlantic becomes involved in a storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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