leesun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 LOL, this GFS run is weird...a massive QPF bomb now over Eastport ME. I dunno..... Yeah, it's weird. Looks like it starts to occlude at 996 mb off the NJ coast with QPF meh and then it does that. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Question. Could this be a storm that is more longitude than latitude dependent? Rain east, snow west, with little latitude involvement towards the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Of note...the system diving towards MO at 48 hours doesn't look all that dissimilar from the RGEM/NAM and is slower than the previous runs. I kind of expect the same to show up with the Euro. Would allow for a slightly east solution. 0z Euro runs have been the west runs for some reason anyway with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I was more interested in the track right now then where it closes off, Details still to be worked out but track wise, Its heading in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS handling if southern stream systems in full effect here. This is as classic a case of that as we see. Northern stream it's decent but involve s stream and it blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Bob what are your thoughts on the PVD-BOS corridor needs to see evolution wise for warning snows. I liked the GGEM/06z GFS solutions from last overnight the best. Nice deepening cyclone as it passes our latitude with a strong kicker. I think anyone S & E of BOS/PVD will have to deal with mixing issues but as of right now it looks like that would be after a solid front-end. Pretty common for Miller A's in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Look at GFS upper levels, that would be a crusher. UK is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No..Ray had 12.5 in Wilmington sorry, I meant the MA/NH border. i am pretty sure CON only had a couple-3 inches in that one. big time gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I liked the GGEM/06z GFS solutions from last overnight the best. Nice deepening cyclone as it passes our latitude with a strong kicker. I think anyone S & E of BOS/PVD will have to deal with mixing issues but as of right now it looks like that would be after a solid front-end. Pretty common for Miller A's in this area. Pull the shades on this run of the ggem. Lots of people ignoring the warmth in the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pull the shades on this run of the ggem. Lots of people ignoring the warmth in the cp. I have been worried all along. I have seen very few people bullish for big snow in the cp. Who are these people ignoring the warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Berkshire east to Sunapee to Sunday river. Take your pick best skiing of the season this weekend. I don't think the final track details may matter much east of 95 it could be warm after the first stage either way inside/out. If it runs further out it's probably not cold enough, if it runs a ggem track it torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Canadian can show whatever it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Canadian can show whatever it wants. An ORH obliterator. That would be a lot of snow though even for BOS before perhaps some tainting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Canadian can show whatever it wants.What does it show?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 An ORH obliterator. That would be a lot of snow though even for BOS before perhaps some tainting. Yeah it was not all that warm at 850 either. The stupid BL warmth is not getting that far inland....I think models are warming interior areas way too much...wonder if daytime heating rearing it's ugly head here. IOW models are warming too much from solar insolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ggem would tear down plenty of trees interior. Oh that looks tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I liked the GGEM/06z GFS solutions from last overnight the best. Nice deepening cyclone as it passes our latitude with a strong kicker. I think anyone S & E of BOS/PVD will have to deal with mixing issues but as of right now it looks like that would be after a solid front-end. Pretty common for Miller A's in this area. The antecedent airmass and high pressure position concern me ...wrt coast getting more than 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ggem would tear down plenty of trees interior. Oh that looks tasty No it's not that wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What does it show? Sent from my iPhone Surprisingly not that much in VT verbatim, but some good comma head snows after a weird front ender for parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 yeah it would going to shovel my roof tomorrow if this looks to be the case.. This is going to be a pain to move.. Ggem would tear down plenty of trees interior. Oh that looks tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like the GGEM dumbell convection lows...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is there a chance this stays all snow on the North Shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 all this BL talk is funny when the track is not even settle yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 An ORH obliterator. That would be a lot of snow though even for BOS before perhaps some tainting. yeah its 991 East of SNJ to 984 between ACK BM, crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah it was not all that warm at 850 either. The stupid BL warmth is not getting that far inland....I think models are warming interior areas way too much...wonder if daytime heating rearing it's ugly head here. IOW models are warming too much from solar insolation. Even the warm bias (at the surface) GGEM has a big thump of snow for BOS in the ptype algorithms. BOS would be a tough forecast on some of these, but I think 128 corridor and NW would be golden. Even independent of the insolation issue models sometiems have, I notice that they will often also try and modify the airmass too quickly when it becomes pinched off from the source region...that is what we are seeing here. The cold airmass over us currently gets pinched off from the source region once the southern stream bowling ball detaches from the N stream flow. We'll see how those thermal profiles trend as we get closer, but I would expect them to tick colder if the track stays out near the BM or ACK. Obviously if we get a hugger, then that creates a new set of ptype issues that are seperate from the "modifying airmass" issue we are currently seeing on some guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 if i remember correctly, that one had anyone north of MA border smoking cirrus. suppression city You remeber incorrectly. I had like 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You remeber incorrectly. I had like 10" PNS says 12.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No..Ray had 12.5 in Wilmington Scary that you remember that and I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 PNS says 12.5 I was guessing. That was my report, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The antecedent airmass and high pressure position concern me ...wrt coast getting more than 2-3" Concerting, yes but it's not putrid. There is just nothing to keep it there. 2-3" should not be difficult to get once you're off the Cape/ Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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