dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's certainly not an exact match, but this system is somewhat reminiscent of the 1/27/11 storm...bowling ball in the south trying to amplify up the eastern side of the longwave trough....just a question fo whether it gets kicked east before it can get here. I do think this one at the moment looks a shade further west than that one...perhaps a more northerly push...but I'm always leery of a kicker system behind these. That would not be good up here at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Already develops a closed off circulation at 700mb down across the Carolina's. That's the problem that I have with this system. It really goes to town before it ever get here. I would like it to close off further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro has been quite consistent with the handling and the evolution of the southern stream energy. Almost seems as if the GFS/NAM are actually starting to lean more towards in that regards...where we see a rapidly strengthening southern stream energy becoming negatively tilted rather quickly which will really help allow a track closer to the coast as opposed to off the coast. Now...the question is...how amped does it become? Of course track is the most critical part of this, And the second part is how far north it gets before it closes off and occludes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro has been quite consistent with the handling and the evolution of the southern stream energy. Almost seems as if the GFS/NAM are actually starting to lean more towards in that regards...where we see a rapidly strengthening southern stream energy becoming negatively tilted rather quickly which will really help allow a track closer to the coast as opposed to off the coast. Now...the question is...how amped does it become? Consistent - somewhat when viewed over the last 2 runs, but also if there's a glaring Achilles heel with the Euro it's energy buried in the sw. Just food for thought. What happened on this run of the NAM is the energy coming out of the sw is handled just differently enough that the entire process starts later allowing for a slightly further east track. Like I said my hunch is the western tracks are going to be too far west and we'll see something that fits the overall trend of the systems this winter with that change coming in these runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Verbatim, 12z NAM is warning snows for most of SNE and parts of CNE. Verbatim* Eastern areas have an issue with warmth...eastern as in inside of 128/495 potentially and RI and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro develops a 130+ knot ULJ at 300mb rounding the base of the trough (between 0-6z Thursday) while the GFS is much less bullish on this (closer to 90-100 knots). I would think that something like this would play a role as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM being the NAM ... it is a tad SE and weaker (definitely) in the mid levels, but this 12z run would provide for a purer snow threat for SE zones ... lighter NW as the extrapolation goes. The variation between the 00z to 06z to 12z is rather large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's the problem that I have with this system. It really goes to town before it ever get here. I would like it to close off further north I think the NAM though often times gets too closed happy in these situations...closes off systems too early. Just a thought Of course track is the most critical part of this, And the second part is how far north it gets before it closes off and occludes Precisely! Consistent - somewhat when viewed over the last 2 runs, but also if there's a glaring Achilles heel with the Euro it's energy buried in the sw. Just food for thought. What happened on this run of the NAM is the energy coming out of the sw is handled just differently enough that the entire process starts later allowing for a slightly further east track. Like I said my hunch is the western tracks are going to be too far west and we'll see something that fits the overall trend of the systems this winter with that change coming in these runs now. Wasn't that corrected on the Euro a few years back with some of the latest updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's certainly not an exact match, but this system is somewhat reminiscent of the 1/27/11 storm...bowling ball in the south trying to amplify up the eastern side of the longwave trough....just a question fo whether it gets kicked east before it can get here. I do think this one at the moment looks a shade further west than that one...perhaps a more northerly push...but I'm always leery of a kicker system behind these. Holy grail, yeah and GFS puking all over itself fits the profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM being the NAM ... it is a tad SE and weaker (definitely) in the mid levels, but this 12z run would provide for a purer snow threat for SE zones ... lighter NW as the extrapolation goes. The variation between the 00z to 06z to 12z is rather large. JMHO through 84 it's mainly rain on the SE coast. The BL is torched and it'll take some time for it to drop. Track is nice, but there's a putrid airmass in advance on strong ocean winds and a retreating high pressure. Again just verbatim on the NAM. It doesn't look all that different from the 0z GGEM which was a really nice hit for interior SNE. Steve, Will, Kevin would all get croaked on this run while areas east would fight the battle before heights collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's going to be close here for rain vs snow one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not to jump ahead of this threat but i noticed that the euro had the kicker turn into a clipper for NNE on Saturday which would enhance the snowfall totals, Whether that outcome comes to fruition is TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not to jump ahead of this threat but i noticed that the euro had the kicker turn into a clipper for NNE on Saturday which would enhance the snowfall totals, Whether that outcome comes to fruition is TBDLooks pretty good for that, deep deep winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would think e sne goes over to 35f rain fairly quickly w poor high positioning , maybe 495 to nw ri to wherever west holds BL cold for front end warning thump. Im not sure 38f water temps help coastal areas I'd think euro verbatim is like 2-4 bos metro than wash Mpm crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 IDK...I don't really know how much further east this could really go. I know there is that kicker but the models are really strengthening that southern stream energy and have it become quite negatively tilted. This might become strong enough to the point to where that kicker doesn't have much of an influence at all. The Euro actually seems to be handling this situation (up through now anyways) pretty consistently...looks like the GFS has even made some slight strides towards the Euro. EDIT: By any further easterly meant more of an OTS type solution...not saying it can't track a bit further east No one thinks this is going out to sea. I could see it tracking near the outter cape, or even ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Eh, I know you are all about the seasonal track, but srn stream systems can be different. I'd hold off on swinging from the rafters for now. Who is swinging from the rafters? Or has that just become the term for "calling for no snow" lol? I'm looking at it operationally and objectively this morning....and really like the 84-495 corridor axis in SNE for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would think e sne goes over to 35f rain fairly quickly w poor high positioning , maybe 495 to nw ri to wherever west holds BL cold for front end warning thump. Im not sure 38f water temps help coastal areas I'd think euro verbatim is like 2-4 bos metro than wash Mpm crushing Christian you have been down on this since the get go. Minimum its a hellacious front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know it's the NAM but damn son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 fear the dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 RGEM is going to handle this interaction much differently than the 0z run. Northern energy and in the south. South is deeper/south, and the northern energy that was dumping into ND at 0z Wed ends up further NE by quite a bit. It's kind of amazing how much of a difficult time the models are having with the upper energy this winter. I've never seen it quite this bad run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Who is swinging from the rafters? Or has that just become the term for "calling for no snow" lol? I'm looking at it operationally and objectively this morning....and really like the 84-495 corridor axis in SNE for this one. I sense your pessimism. We'll see what the 12z brings, but I feel like NNE and areas like the Berks could do well here. If the euro is right, longitude almost matters more than latitude when it comes to SNE and points down the East Coast. Just speculation....I don't think the low can go further west than what the euro has..but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Christian you have been down on this since the get go. Minimum its a hellacious front end dump. Stephen i think ur wrong Minimum is nada I am planning already to go to wawa for day Antecedent airmass is crap, e/ene winds all day before precip arrives could torch BL for eastern areas. This is not negative , its unbiased and quite possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Does this have the potential to drop 12+ over a large area..or just a small jack area? Is it going to be a wet snow for everyone..or like 27-28 type snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Stephen i think ur wrong Minimum is nada I am planning already to go to wawa for day Antecedent airmass is crap, e/ene winds all day before precip arrives could torch BL for eastern areas. This is not negative , its unbiased and quite possible cool, ene winds and OES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I sense your pessimism. We'll see what the 12z brings, but I feel like NNE and areas like the Berks could do well here. If the euro is right, longitude almost matters more than latitude when it comes to SNE and points down the East Coast. Just speculation....I don't think the low can go further west than what the euro has..but who knows.Well to be honest there's not a ton to be optimistic about up here except the one ECM run, is there? I mean it is what it is, not necessarily swinging from the rafters haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Does this have the potential to drop 12+ over a large area..or just a small jack area? Is it going to be a wet snow for everyone..or like 27-28 type snow? potential Tippy blue bomb with large expanse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's the problem that I have with this system. It really goes to town before it ever get here. I would like it to close off further north Welcome to the world of Miller As. More can go wrong, but they can still be good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I sense your pessimism. We'll see what the 12z brings, but I feel like NNE and areas like the Berks could do well here. If the euro is right, longitude almost matters more than latitude when it comes to SNE and points down the East Coast. Just speculation....I don't think the low can go further west than what the euro has..but who knows. This reminds me of Feb 2001 a bit....a few different ones from that season, really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well to be honest there's not a ton to be optimistic about up here except the one ECM run, is there? I mean it is what it is, not necessarily swinging from the rafters haha. From what I saw, even a 50 mile shift had you in the deformation area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Jan 26-27 2011was awesome..That dropped 16 inches in a short overnight period of time,including 4 inch per hour rates here. That storm had a colder airmass to work with though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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