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Feb 13-15 modeled event increased confidence now.


Typhoon Tip

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Here are a few images to illustrate my earlier points in this thread (all valid at 12z Thursday).

 

This is the 12z run of the Euro from the 9th (today). I've circled the kicker shortwave to highlight it's position.

 

post-44-0-22374600-1392006085_thumb.jpg

 

Here is the 00z run from the 9th (12 hours prior) and the blue circle still indicates the 12z run's position of the shortwave. The orange is the 00z run's position of the same shortwave, and you notice how it is farther west as is the East Coast low pressure as a result.

 

post-44-0-99478300-1392006062_thumb.jpg

 

Change things up to the 18z GFS from the 9th (today) and the orange circle shows it's forecast position of the shortwave. The blue is still the 12z Euro. The kicker is farther east, likewise the East Coast low pressure is also farther east.

 

post-44-0-90089300-1392006238_thumb.jpg

 

Finally the current GFS run, actually a very similar to the 12z Euro regarding position of the kicker. The blue circle hasn't moved from the Euro position, yet represents the location on the GFS very well. The orange shows the 09/00z run of the Euro for reference.

 

post-44-0-90331100-1392006548_thumb.jpg

 

Low pressure along the coast is still a little east, but now maybe we can speculate the SE bias coming into play?

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Low pressure along the coast is still a little east, but now maybe we can speculate the SE bias coming into play?

 

Awesome post, thanks for taking the time to do that.  I'm no expert by any means, so it's always nice when someone shows things in an easy to follow manner like you did here.

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Thread the needle for melrose/wakefield to get all snow in this set up, no high in Quebec just raging east winds w water temps upper 30's ....cold yes but still mid 30's and dripping here. I think most of essex cnty would be as well. Unless there is rapid deepening i would think its tuff, hope im wrong.

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