Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not sold on the euro or gfs. Few moving parts that have to be timed just right for this to break for us and the negatives still outweigh the posotives. Obviously we'll have a better idea this time tomorrow when we should see a narrowing of solutions. I like seeing the euro suite where it stands but we are still 3+ days out. Antecedent airmass not that great. High pressure is NE of New England which is not great. You have a kicker that can shunt this ots. You have a southern stream system that as we know can pump up the heights ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 lots of warm members I'll take either member P005 or P008, thank you. I think P005 nailed the last storm. P005 delays the storm by at least six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'll take either member P005 or P008, thank you. I think P005 nailed the last storm. P005 delays the storm by at least six hours.Do the gefs work that way? I thought they dynamically changed whichever variables in the atmosphere had the most change from the previous run, I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro has been steadfast Jerry, just look at the GFS and GEFS with tonight, look across the country, look at the scores. I will ride the Euro this week.Looks like they generate that using the mean 850s and mean QPF...kinda dangerous to assume snow totals when some members may be warm/wet and other OTS. If they estimated the snowfall for each individual member and then took a mean of all of those then that would be more appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What a weenie map lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro Ens are heaven, big ole smile today. Exciting week ahead. I love wet snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What a weenie map lol.It includes today's snow...such as it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do the gefs work that way? I thought they dynamically changed whichever variables in the atmosphere had the most change from the previous run, I could be wrong though.Yeah...the perturbations change based on greatest initial/model uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It includes today's snow...such as it is I know, but it's funny to see a snow map from ensembles with a lot of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Exciting week ahead. I love wet snow events. Ditto. Not sold on this quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What a weenie map lol.MDA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Aren't all snow maps weenie maps? Even bufkit maps get dissed here, Brian should make maps with his extensive knowledge of snow growth they would be better than any out there. I think the MDA map based on a generalized mean was not bad all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 These cooking SQL errors are aggravating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 These cooking SQL errors are aggravating 1st time I get them on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah the SQL errors suck. Bear with us. We have near record users right now. No excuse, but we're getting taxed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM not suggesting OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know it's the NAM but WOW!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM not suggesting OTS. Pretty amped solution. Model mayhem continues. We'll see if GFS comes back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh, NAM...what have you gotten into now JBs map is weenieish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Guys we're aware of the issues. Complaining here won't help right now...save the complaining for later. lol New record for users tonight...2200+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Shows up on my iPhone as well Really? Tonight is the highest number? I figured last Febs doozy would do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It only happened to snowmobilers and golfers in Maine though Just another NNE b**ch session, Met herb and Joey in ct had issues as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Shows up on my iPhone as well don't talk about it..Nam would seem to be pretty warm post 84 hrs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like 850's will stay below 0 and pivots at 84H for approx NW of 84 & 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Seems like some serious cold Wednesday morning. Also seems like the best forcing, deform is north of 850, this is looking pretty darn good so far tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Guys we're aware of the issues. Complaining here won't help right now...save the complaining for later. lol New record for users tonight...2200+. Why all the excitement? a day 3 threat in the mid atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 don't talk about it.. Nam would seem to be pretty warm post 84 hrs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hate extropalting but I don't think coastal folks would like those results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like 850's will stay below 0 and pivots at 84H for approx NW of 84 & 495 not great for me but it's the nam Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Seems like some serious cold Wednesday morning. Also seems like the best forcing, deform is north of 850, this is looking pretty darn good so far tonight. How serious? Serious.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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