TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm more concerned about this slipping out too sea as opposed to cutting up the coast. Were still a ways out and it's a very fragile setup with a lot of moving parts. We've seen some bombs recently on models, with pretty good ensemble support, that have pretty much fizzled within a day or two of the runs. Obviously every case is different, but the odds seem to be stacked against a large system for many events. Hopefully we can thread the needle, but I wouldn't count on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm looking at the 12z Euro right now on Wunderground and no precip has fallen over most of SNE, save for S CT and I am factoring in the leading edge being evaporated. 12z Euro 2-9-14.JPG 24+24+24=72 72+12=84 84+9 =93 overnight Wednesday is 87-93 9Z thurs is 93 4 days = 96 5 days = 120 This system is quite possibly under 4 days from the 12z data run, Look at the upper left of the image I posted. See the timestamp? It says 9z Thursday which is 4am.. Look how much precip has fallen over your area. None. So I assume the start time to be right around than, which is 09z Thursday, or in your mind overnight Wednesday. Continue to believe what you want but I did not try to pull one over on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does anyone have any inclination if this would be more apt to phase sooner and cut inland or go OTS if it doesn't thread our weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Add me to the list as well. I've been missing or getting fringed by coastals ever since the 10/29/11 debacle buried this area under 20"+. In fact, I've not had a double digit storm total since then. Personally, I'd much rather have a 00z Euro solution than the 12z one. 00z Euro was a bit too far west even for here, but at least we would get front ended and get a decent amount of snow before precip type issues were to occur. The 12z is too far east and we miss the comma head stuff. Of course the 12z GGEM is a dreamy solution for the Berkshires with an epic death band and huge amounts of QPF as snow, but I will echo what others have said in that this is a very delicate setup synoptically because of the upstream kicker issue. It's time this area had a pounding snowstorm while BOS and E MA get dryslotted and rain. It'll happen at some point, just may be next winter, lol. Those guys can hopefully clean up as much as possible while they have this pattern, that just does not want to amplify storms north once they get to the NJ latitude. Everything this winter wants to go more east than north at that point. We'll get our season at some point. I'm actually feeling this one for RI and eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does anyone have any inclination if this would be more apt to phase sooner and cut inland or go OTS if it doesn't thread our weenies My guess would be wide right if I had to choose a miss in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 My guess would be wide right if I had to choose a miss in either direction. We need the energy on the backend to swing through faster or things to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does anyone have any inclination if this would be more apt to phase sooner and cut inland or go OTS if it doesn't thread our weenies IMO pretty much any scenario has an equal likelihood of happening at this stage. Seems right now we are virtually dealing with more of a timing issue than anything. The Euro really strengthens that southern streak energy and has it become negatively tilted much quicker than the GFS does and this allows the trough to capture and tug closer to the coast. The GFS is just a bit too quick with things. Not just b/c it's the Euro but b/c it's the Euro I would be inclined to lean more towards that model. Euro usually seems to handle this stuff a bit better than the GFS. The GFS though isn't really too far off from being a bit more similar to the Euro but OTOH you could say the same with the Euro for a GFS like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That can't happen because then I will look really bad. EC ensembles didn't go that far east did they? CMC and UK go east? Nocraps? JMA? Korean? To be honest, there's a big difference in "NNE" between where you are vs the latitude of like myself or Tamarack. You usually get in on the same systems that SNE gets. What Jerry said is true in general for NNE, but I said it this morning that I was positive the 00z ECM was far too amped. It just isn't a pattern that supports a big negative tilt type track going due north up the coast...there's going to be a good easterly component to this track, its just how far north it can get before riding east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 1.25-1.5 qpf 7 day total from hpc would = 12-20 depending on ratios. Risky business to take HPC 7-day QPF and convert to snowfall... for whatever reason the HPC seems to have a wet bias or at least displays it more widespread than it probably should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yep either scenario can happen. I'll say that confidence has definitely increased since yesterday, but still relatively low at the moment. Yes, as it should as you get closer. One way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 IMO pretty much any scenario has an equal likelihood of happening at this stage. Seems right now we are virtually dealing with more of a timing issue than anything. The Euro really strengthens that southern streak energy and has it become negatively tilted much quicker than the GFS does and this allows the trough to capture and tug closer to the coast. The GFS is just a bit too quick with things. Not just b/c it's the Euro but b/c it's the Euro I would be inclined to lean more towards that model. Euro usually seems to handle this stuff a bit better than the GFS. The GFS though isn't really too far off from being a bit more similar to the Euro but OTOH you could say the same with the Euro for a GFS like solution. Especially b/c the EURO has had this storm on the map for a several days while the GFS has been all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Especially b/c the EURO has had this storm on the map for a several days while the GFS has been all over the place The Euro has been quite consistent with the handling of the southern energy and how it would involve along with the pattern. While the GFS hasn't been as consistent at least regarding it's showing a storm, the GFS has continued to hint that a storm would still be possible in that timeframe. Active jet with numerous pieces of energy. When looking in the medium/long range I try to focus more on the look of the pattern and what's flowing through the pattern. I think sometimes people will get too caught up with just looking for a surface depiction of a storm. Often times you can have a solid feeling at what type of potential holds just by looking at the pattern and what models are showing embedded in the pattern. Like the case with next week...even since this period came within range of the models you almost had a feeling it would be potentially active...strong/active jet with numerous pieces of energy both in the northern and southern streams...just a matter of time before something connects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z Euro ensembles are substantially more juiced than the op run... makes me feel better for a storm of some sort on Thrusday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Look how quick that low moves in off to the west on the GFS. I tried to warn the weenies. Subtle changes in that northern stream kicker are going to play major roles in the eventual track of this storm. Confidence is growing on a storm, but whether that brushes or crushes the coast is still very much up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I tried to warn the weenies. Subtle changes in that northern stream kicker are going to play major roles in the eventual track of this storm. Confidence is growing on a storm, but whether that brushes or crushes the coast is still very much up in the air. Yep. Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Context is everything here, in case you haven't figure that out. You need to pick and choose your words wisely, otherwise they'll be used against you. Sorry for trying to help you out. No, you were wrong; I was referring to a past state of mind in that post. Master the English language and help yourself out. There is a reason I had a pro met texting me wondering what in the world you were doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I tried to warn the weenies. Subtle changes in that northern stream kicker are going to play major roles in the eventual track of this storm. Confidence is growing on a storm, but whether that brushes or crushes the coast is still very much up in the air.Serious question here, how can you have any confidence in the GFS at this time with southern stream systems. I mean in 36 hours it has screwed the pooch all over the country, even with short lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z Euro ensembles are substantially more juiced than the op run... makes me feel better for a storm of some sort on Thrusday.Euro Ens are heaven, big ole smile today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Personally, the fact that this isn't modeled over ALB right now is a bad sign for this part of New England....my gut is telling me we may be seeing those 3-5 day out amped up solutions we've seen several times this winter. The trend this year in the final 48 hours has been for slightly more progressive solutions as the models get a better handle on the fast flow. If be open to changing that stance if someone had a good reason for why this would become more amped and further NW in reach...but with a kicker system coming in the northern stream and no real phasing, I'm leaning more progressive and east. Should be interesting to watch it play out.Not true, if it's modeled to cut it always verifies, at least this season. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GEFS suggest that the op is out to lunch on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GEFS suggest that the op is out to lunch on the 18z run.Deets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Deets? GEFS are just outside the BM it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GEFS are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS are all over the place.lots of warm members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS are all over the place. The mean may look good but the indiv members are a mess. Inland, whiffs and a couple good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The mean may look good but the indiv members are a mess. Inland, whiffs and a couple good hits.Model has been a total disaster this week from sea to shining sea. Toss it as far as your muscles can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The mean may look good but the indiv members are a mess. Inland, whiffs and a couple good hits.Yup They are not confidence inspiring Do we have ANY inclination if amped is more likely than OTS I don't have a ton of confidence in euro's handling of n stream kicker (timing). It has struggled all year in this dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Something's broke Careful. Euro ensembles may have the same issue. Best to approach this with caution and not discard either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Careful. Euro ensembles may have the same issue. Best to approach this with caution and not discard either.Euro has been steadfast Jerry, just look at the GFS and GEFS with tonight, look across the country, look at the scores. I will ride the Euro this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't think the op is steadfast. It shifted substantially 0z to 12z. I'd over the euro to verify but I'd lie to see it hold for another 2 runs before feeling confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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