CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 06z GEFS go near ACK too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:48 AM, Damage In Tolland said: That's a weird map.....the lower percentages in the east suggest significant taint (EC-type run?), but the lower probabilities out west would suggest a more eastern (GFS-type) solution. Whatever. I think most should be feeling good about things this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:02 AM, CoastalWx said: I'm not sold on that...at least for a majority of it. This is a congrats DC and esp suburbs storm. What a crushing there. If it took a track like you expect..where would the dryslot be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:06 AM, Damage In Tolland said: If it took a track like you expect..where would the dryslot be? Right over us still. This will be more of a front ender with maybe a ciouple of hours of fun to end like the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:03 AM, moneypitmike said: I think most should be feeling good about things this morning. Except the elbow of land separated by a canal, in the far southeastern portion of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS has an epic ending for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:08 AM, CoastalWx said: Right over us still. This will be more of a front ender with maybe a ciouple of hours of fun to end like the GFS has. So that's what giving us the 12-18 inch totals as opposed to DC where the 18-26 inch totals will be . Well hopefully we can minimize the DS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:11 AM, CoastalWx said: GFS has an epic ending for SNE. Not bad as it sheds 16 mb in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:12 AM, Damage In Tolland said: So that's what giving us the 12-18 inch totals as opposed to DC where the 18-26 inch totals will be . Well hopefully we can minimize the DS I would temper the enthusiasm a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is rather cold, but the low is weaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:12 AM, Damage In Tolland said: So that's what giving us the 12-18 inch totals as opposed to DC where the 18-26 inch totals will be . Well hopefully we can minimize the DS 12-18 would be tough east of the Berks I think. More like 8-12 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We could use one more tick east on the euro. The 12z and 00z EC ensembles were dam close so it will not move east much if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:14 AM, CoastalWx said: 12-18 would be tough east of the Berks I think. More like 8-12 for you. I 'm thinking something along the lines of the GGEM might be the final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 10:58 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Oh ok,i was assuming the euro was still a bit too far west..One would surmise that the dry slot would end up over SE areas I suppose I mean it's coming, it's just to what degree. You can generate precip below 700 mb, but it probably won't be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 seems like we could do well but this thing is really gonna rock for mid atl? so hopes of crazy rates and tssn are not really on table for most of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 In looking at the euro 500mb vort plots vs 12z, the kicker was a bit faster and the srn stream closed off and dug SE a bit more as compared to 12z. Another tickle east with these features would be pretty awesome for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:22 AM, codfishsnowman said: seems like we could do well but this thing is really gonna rock for mid atl? so hopes of crazy rates and tssn are not really on table for most of us? They'll do the best as modeled, but it should get pretty wild here for a few hours. If the GFS is right, it's an awesome ending...GGEM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:17 AM, OceanStWx said: I mean it's coming, it's just to what degree. You can generate precip below 700 mb, but it probably won't be pretty. Dry_slot.jpg Hideous. Jeff should use that as his picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:25 AM, CoastalWx said: They'll do the best as modeled, but it should get pretty wild here for a few hours. If the GFS is right, it's an awesome ending...GGEM too. Any time you tickle the dry slot you also tickle the best instability. High risk, high reward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 More qpf down south seems related to the slowing motion as mid levels close off near Delmarva and storm sitting longer . Was waiting for box maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:30 AM, OceanStWx said: Any time you tickle the dry slot you also tickle the best instability. High risk, high reward. True dat. Steepen the lapse rates and you steepen the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BOX has dropped the temps down here quite a bit in their forecast for Thursday. Yesterday had a 33* (p/c) and lower 30's zfp. This morning it's showing 26* (p/c) and upper 20's on the ZFP. I guess no need to worry about taint. But, qpf/dry slot worries loom large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:32 AM, cpick79 said: More qpf down south seems related to the slowing motion as mid levels close off near Delmarva and storm site longer . Was waiting for box maps Everything comes together there..sort of all parameters maximizing at once. But it looks great here too where the comma head sets up. Ern NY to VT on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:32 AM, moneypitmike said: BOX has dropped the temps down here quite a bit in their forecast for Thursday. Yesterday had a 33* (p/c) and lower 30's zfp. This morning it's showing 26* (p/c) and upper 20's on the ZFP. I guess no need to worry about taint. But, qpf/dry slot worries loom large. You're situated in a better spot for deformation though. There should be a nice band on the NW periphery of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:32 AM, moneypitmike said: BOX has dropped the temps down here quite a bit in their forecast for Thursday. Yesterday had a 33* (p/c) and lower 30's zfp. This morning it's showing 26* (p/c) and upper 20's on the ZFP. I guess no need to worry about taint. But, qpf/dry slot worries loom large. Your posts are sometimes nails on chalkboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS goes from 546 decamters to 522 decmaters over SNE in 12 hrs. That's very very impressive and implies one hell of a backlash. Walt Drag PT right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:34 AM, OceanStWx said: You're situated in a better spot for deformation though. There should be a nice band on the NW periphery of the low. On the EC, I think that'll setting up just to my NW and I will dry slot with the rest. How do see the Whites doing in this? On 2/11/2014 at 11:34 AM, CoastalWx said: Your posts are sometimes nails on chalkboard. LOL. The only good thing about the dry slot is that it would limit the amount of taint some people receive. In those instances, it can be a bit of a blessing. For others, ,we get to look at the radar enviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:22 AM, CoastalWx said: In looking at the euro 500mb vort plots vs 12z, the kicker was a bit faster and the srn stream closed off and dug SE a bit more as compared to 12z. Another tickle east with these features would be pretty awesome for some. No, no more tickles east. These features are already awesome for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:40 AM, moneypitmike said: On the EC, I think that'll setting up just to my NW and I will dry slot with the rest. How do see the Whites doing in this? I think they are set up to do well. That easterly component to the mid levels loves to pile up the snow against the Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 11:39 AM, CoastalWx said: GFS goes from 546 decamters to 522 decmaters over SNE in 12 hrs. That's very very impressive and implies one hell of a backlash. Walt Drag PT right there. One of those 3-4 hours of high winds and s+ type deals..with maybe thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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