Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:24 PM, CoastalWx said: Regardless for the interior especially..it's a very wintry event. I have a tough time seeing Will and Kevin above 32F so sleet and ZR possibly there..probably even Ray too.Thats assuming the Euro track verifies though right? If we see the expected shift east then that wouldn't be an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Every met on board except Ryan. Hopefully he joins the party after 00z goes east a bit so we have total agreement It is hard to argue with the consistency of the EURO right now. And, virtually every model has shown that ML warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:23 PM, bobbutts said: GYX getting much more aggressive on the P+C forecast here for My SQL storm. They are honking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I suppose us poor country cousins down in RI will get slop again?(Hello, by the way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Thats assuming the Euro track verifies though right? If we see the expected shift east then that wouldn't be an issue? You'll need a 50 miles shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Should be fun, relax and enjoy. Day time storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 wow, just got in and what an epic run of the Euro... bombs away - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 6:14 PM, leesun said: How does the Euro look for MBY? see note about "storm mode" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:34 PM, snowdazed said: I suppose us poor country cousins down in RI will get slop again? (Hello, by the way) Welcome! Where in R.I. ? Will make a big difference with this storm as modeled currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Amazing NAM radar sim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:25 PM, moneypitmike said: Feeling good for up here---might taint, especially if it comes any further west. But that's unlikely. Hopefully the Berks can stay west of the dry slot. LOL!! Even lower elevations in N Franklin Co. have little to be concerned with right now. Too bad we're still 24 hours from a high confidence level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 This 18z NAM is closing the 500mb surface over the Del Marv and heading deeper than 540dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This one looks like it will have a super nail biting nw gradient....could be 12"+ in a local and just flurries like 10 miles nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:47 PM, Typhoon Tip said: This 18z NAM is closing the 500mb surface over the Del Marv and heading deeper than 540dm NAm continues east trend of other 12z models..Euro still far western outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 It could conceivably snow for 40 straight hours... The lead bomb in the Euro/Ukmet (not as intense but slow moving in the GGEM) is follow spacial-temporally so close by an intense N-stream impulse, that it may not allow enough time to dry out the column after saturation, and also provided on-going albeit reduced lift. Could see it almost snowing harder than rad for quite a few hours after the main first show, then ... could even be a moderate band or two that erupts as that strong UVM associated with the n-stream passes over head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:49 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: This one looks like it will have a super nail biting nw gradient....could be 12"+ in a local and just flurries like 10 miles nw. Maybe a tight N/W gradient but looks like a pretty expansive precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Most Beautiful Girl in the World is NOT anyone you'd say.... IT'S THE 18Z NAM!!!! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Imageanis.php AMAZING Text Book Evolution of a historic East Coast US Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Thats assuming the Euro track verifies though right? If we see the expected shift east then that wouldn't be an issue? I'm sort of surprised some on here seem so bought into the ECM verbatim. My gut since yesterday is that the CCB ends up in your next of the woods Blizz....HFD-ORH-PWM type axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:52 PM, Typhoon Tip said: It could conceivably snow for 40 straight hours... The lead bomb in the Euro/Ukmet (not as intense but slow moving in the GGEM) is follow spacial-temporally so close by an intense N-stream impulse, that it may not allow enough time to dry out the column after saturation, and also provided on-going albeit reduced lift. Could see it almost snowing harder than rad for quite a few hours after the main first show, then ... could even be a moderate band or two that erupts as that strong UVM associated with the n-stream passes over head. Music to my ears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM is actually pretty close to my thinking. A total complete abortion for VT and epic banding everywhere else, lol. You couldn't script the 18z NAM any more brutal if you are a snow lover in VT. That would be laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:54 PM, powderfreak said: I'm sort of surprised some on here seem so bought into the ECM verbatim. My gut since yesterday is that the CCB ends up in your next of the woods Blizz....HFD-ORH-PWM type axis. I think we all stated that we sort of side with the EC guidance..but it may be too far west. I'm not sold on a track near or outside the BM either. I still think near or SE of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:57 PM, powderfreak said: The NAM is actually pretty close to my thinking. A total complete abortion for VT and epic banding everywhere else, lol. You couldn't script the 18z NAM any more brutal if you are a snow lover in VT. That would be laughable. Highly doubt it's a narr0w 50 mile wide band lol. And are we really talking about the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:54 PM, powderfreak said: I'm sort of surprised some on here seem so bought into the ECM verbatim. My gut since yesterday is that the CCB ends up in your next of the woods Blizz....HFD-ORH-PWM type axis. The ensembles are agreeing with it pretty stubbornly. Though that set of guidance is definitely the furtherst NW right now. My gut is also saying at least somewhat east of the Euro and its ensembles. Im guessing like a 75/25 compromise in favor of the Euro...but who knows, maybe it will score the full 100% coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is 1_27_11 in my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That kicker is so key it's not even funny. If that comes in weak, it's curtains for a big snow event for southeast areas. It already might be curtains if were being honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Whether the NAM or not aside ... this is utter perfection aloft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:58 PM, CoastalWx said: I think we all stated that we sort of side with the EC guidance..but it may be too far west. I'm not sold on a track near or outside the BM either. I still think near or SE of ACK. Something like the 18z NAM? Look at that through the eyes of a VT resident in BTV's CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 8:58 PM, CoastalWx said: I think we all stated that we sort of side with the EC guidance..but it may be too far west. I'm not sold on a track near or outside the BM either. I still think near or SE of ACK. Violently agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:00 PM, powderfreak said: Something like the 18z NAM? Look at that through the eyes of a VT resident in BTV's CWA Well again I don't see it as compact either. I think it will have a pretty large precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:00 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Whether the NAM or not aside ... this is utter perfection aloft... That is awesome, Except we would like it to close off further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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