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Feb 13-15 modeled event increased confidence now.


Typhoon Tip

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  On 2/10/2014 at 5:32 PM, powderfreak said:

Sometimes I forget this board is more than our own little region, haha.  Its amazing the number of users and interest and stuff that happens to this board once the mid-Atlantic becomes involved in a storm threat. 

 

Jokingly, It has been a KOD in the past

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  On 2/10/2014 at 5:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't been this pumped for a storm in a long time.

Radio show,  heavy heavies, rain/snow lines, cf, nudity.

Wow.

 

  On 2/10/2014 at 5:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't been this pumped for a storm in a long time.

Radio show,  heavy heavies, rain/snow lines, cf, nudity.

Wow.

Beware gung ho until after tonight's runs. But there is an honest potential for us to have feet of snowpack after this miller a and clipper.

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  On 2/10/2014 at 5:40 PM, Cold Miser said:

"morning" as in before rush hour (7:00) or later?

 

 

Too early to tell, I'd guess it starts before that but I wouldn't be shocked either if it really didn't get going until later. Guidance is mixed on that front.

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  On 2/10/2014 at 5:45 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z GEFS Members.  Still a lot of timing differences.  A lot looked toasty.

 

attachicon.giff84.gif

 

 

I'm not sure the exact reason, but the GFS suite has been by far the warmest set of guidance. Even on benchmark tracks it has pretty mild mid-levels. I personally am not buying that though.

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  On 2/10/2014 at 5:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure the exact reason, but the GFS suite has been by far the warmest set of guidance. Even on benchmark tracks it has pretty mild mid-levels. I personally am not buying that though.

 

Some of those warm members are disorganized and lack a CCB. I think that is part of it, but they still look real mild too me for no reason. Doesn't make sense.  You can see how even the westerly euro cutoff the warming.

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  On 2/10/2014 at 5:51 PM, CoastalWx said:

Some of those warm members are disorganized and lack a CCB. I think that is part of it, but they still look real mild too me for no reason. Doesn't make sense.  You can see how even the westerly euro cutoff the warming.

 

Looks like Etaunton beat me to the ensembles... but yeah I was wondering what would cause those to look so warm at H85. 

 

One would think some of those solutions would at least dynamically go to a 0C at H85.  It seems excessively warm.

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  On 2/10/2014 at 5:51 PM, CoastalWx said:

Some of those warm members are disorganized and lack a CCB. I think that is part of it, but they still look real mild too me for no reason. Doesn't make sense.  You can see how even the westerly euro cutoff the warming.

Yeah I was thinking intensity has somewhat to do with it.  The deeper the cyclone, the more northerly the wind component should be as it hits the northeast.

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