dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:18 AM, bobbutts said: Why all the excitement? a day 3 threat in the mid atlantic?Possibility of another 1" in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:28 PM, Ginxy said: Serious question here, how can you have any confidence in the GFS at this time with southern stream systems. I mean in 36 hours it has screwed the pooch all over the country, even with short lead times. It's not necessarily confidence in the GFS, it's no confidence in any one solution. You've seen how wildly the models can swing based on that trailing shortwave. It's not a prudent forecast to jump on the Euro and ignore other possible solutions. I favored the middle of the road with adjustments to come if/when consensus grows on a farther west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:23 AM, dendrite said: Possibility of another 1" in Atlanta.we have like 10 Georgia posters, it's the MA and it's always the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:24 AM, OceanStWx said: It's not necessarily confidence in the GFS, it's no confidence in any one solution. You've seen how wildly the models can swing based on that trailing shortwave. It's not a prudent forecast to jump on the Euro and ignore other possible solutions. I favored the middle of the road with adjustments to come if/when consensus grows on a farther west track.You based your caution to "weenies" based on the GFS and that is why I asked. I understand your philosophy totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:27 AM, Ginxy said: we have like 10 Georgia posters, it's the MA and it's always the MA viewers, not posters..are the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:29 AM, Ginxy said: You based your caution to "weenies" based on the GFS and that is why I asked. I understand your philosophy totally. Just as an example to say don't latch onto any particular solution because it is so volatile. That's how people end up taking swan dives off the Tobin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's the NAM beyond 48 hours ... it is what it is... But what it is, is not bad for winter geese. There's an initial surge of S+ on this run, that runs into some p-type issues up to the Mass Pike, or perhaps even Rt 2, but then, as the deep closing center in the South runs up and captures the sfc low, the extrapolation would support a more rapid deepening rate somewhere between Cape Cod and the Delmarva, and that circumvallate of low pressure would implode, and along with it, dynamical cooling would collapse the column for most, and the transition line between snow and kitchen sink then moves SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:32 AM, OceanStWx said: Just as an example to say don't latch onto any particular solution because it is so volatile. That's how people end up taking swan dives off the Tobin. There will always be some that won't heed the advice and jump anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Se forum is Bizzzzeeee Watch if gfs gets on board....boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As a reminder Full moon week. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam doing it usually thing of ampin and gfs has been showing its true colors with misfiring phases when the south jet is involved. An in between solution is a certainly reasonable way to go, although still favoring more clippings....the progresive theme should continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS still mostly wide right...maybe a scraper. At least it looked better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lol GFS would shut Atlanta down for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:27 AM, Ginxy said: we have like 10 Georgia posters, it's the MA and it's always the MA Sarcasm. But the SE has a huge crew now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:53 AM, ORH_wxman said: GFS still mostly wide right...maybe a scraper. At least it looked better than 18z.it will catch up eventually, reminds me of its Nemo performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:34 AM, Typhoon Tip said: It's the NAM beyond 48 hours ... it is what it is... But what it is, is not bad for winter geese. There's an initial surge of S+ on this run, that runs into some p-type issues up to the Mass Pike, or perhaps even Rt 2, but then, as the deep closing center in the South runs up and captures the sfc low, the extrapolation would support a more rapid deepening rate somewhere between Cape Cod and the Delmarva, and that circumvallate of low pressure would implode, and along with it, dynamical cooling would collapse the column for most, and the transition line between snow and kitchen sink then moves SE. In other words, nudity for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:56 AM, Ginxy said: Lol GFS would shut Atlanta down for a week and CLT until spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still work to do on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gfs came closer I have a feeling this is going over or just east of the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On the GFS it looked like that high to the northeast was stalling the low for at least six hours, so if we can get a blend of the NAM and the GFS this could still be quite the event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Uncle looks ok at least through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 4:09 AM, weathafella said: Uncle looks ok at least through 72. It looks very good actually. I'm hoping it is how most of the guidance will look tonight sans the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 4:08 AM, 78Blizzard said: On the GFS it looked like that high to the northeast was stalling the low for at least six hours, so if we can get a blend of the NAM and the GFS this could still be quite the event for most. You can't just take the best elements from each run and combine them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 4:03 AM, ineedsnow said: Gfs came closer I have a feeling this is going over or just east of the cape If so, let's hope it's bombing out as it does because we'll need some pretty good dynamics to get thumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like the 850 look, GFS bias and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 4:10 AM, ORH_wxman said: It looks very good actually. I'm hoping it is how most of the guidance will look tonight sans the GFS.sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 4:11 AM, bch2014 said: You can't just take the best elements from each run and combine them... Can you please tell me where I did that? BTW, NCEP is constantly blending in their determinations, and they don't take the best elements in each either. All I said was "if we can get a blend". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 4:10 AM, ORH_wxman said: It looks very good actually. I'm hoping it is how most of the guidance will look tonight sans the GFS. Yeah that would be a pretty big snowstorm for New England including coastal areas off the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Decent shot at another 6-12". Don't forget that SSTS are cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sst temps are at their minimum could be good anywhere away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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