Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I seriously doubt we stay all snow. 50% snow would be quite an achievement. Things changing over to FZRA pretty far north in central IL... We'll see. Seems like it did a decent job with current precip types. Just going to have to keep watching trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 From DTX- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI1105 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014.UPDATE...TRANQUIL EARLY AFTERNOON WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THEARRIVAL OF SNOW FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHTWITH AN EVENING PEAK REMAINING ON TRACK. ONSET TIMING AROUND 4 PMWILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW WITH BROKEN COVERAGE DUE TO THISINITIAL ROUND OF MOISTURE BEING UTILIZED MORE TO SATURATE THE LOWLEVELS. A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE ASFULL SATURATION IS ACHIEVED WHICH WILL RESULT IN ROUGHLY 1/2 INCHOF ACCUMULATION MOST AREAS BEFORE 7 PM WITH AT LEAST MODESTIMPACT ON THE HOLIDAY LIGHTENED EVENING COMMUTE.SO FAR DURING THE MORNING, OBSERVATIONS OVER THE MIDWEST SUPPORTINCOMING 12Z MODEL DATA THAT INDICATE AN INCREASING TREND ONSYSTEM INTENSITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THEEVENING. PLAN TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONSLEADING UP TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, ALONG WITH EVALUATION OF THECOMPLETE 12Z MODEL SUITE, BEFORE MAKING A CALL ON ANY HEADLINECHANGES. AT THIS POINT, IT DOES APPEAR THAT HIGH END ADVISORYACCUMULATION WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE OVER NEARLY ALL OF SEMICHIGAN. REFINEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATE AND TIMING EXPECTATIONS WILLBE THE MAIN CONSIDERATION FOR A POSSIBLE HEADLINE UPGRADE ASOVERALL SYSTEM TOTALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOREXCEEDING 8 INCHES YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 My flight from NYC back to ORD scheduled to land at 825 pm. Not too optimistic about that but we'll see. Haven't looked at much but the WSW hoisted by my office seems well justified given the likelihood of very high snowfall rates. From an impact standpoint, whether a given location receives 5" or 7" it all would've fallen in a pretty short period of time. And although it's a holiday, many businesses still open so the impacts will be increased with snow still falling during the commute. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Winter wonderland here...traffic moving about 25mph down the interstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 But I don't think it will necessarily mean that's the way it'll be across IN. I think you'll be fine up there in snow country.. Definitely looking ICY around the doughnut counties though.. Snow country... We'll see. Seems like it did a decent job with current precip types. Just going to have to keep watching trends. Meh. We'll see. But you did see the precip minima over LAF on the 15z RAP too, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Impressive band about to come into the area...running from about Cedar Rapids to Winona... Should really pick up here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Snow country... Meh. We'll see. But you did see the precip minima over LAF on the 15z RAP too, right? Your buddy wrote up a novel for a blog post this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 i better enjoy this decent quick moving band coming up.. not feeling round 3 up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Went from flurries to a snowstorm in about 5 minutes here in Racine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Your buddy wrote up a novel for a blog post this morning! I bet it was a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Snow country... Meh. We'll see. But you did see the precip minima over LAF on the 15z RAP too, right? Actually no. It does seem a little slow with progression though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 first wave put down close to 1/2" downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The heavy band moving across east-central Iowa is dropping snow at 2-4 inches per hour. I got 1" in 30 minutes, a guy just south of CR got 2" in 30 minutes. Unfortunately, like with every single storm this winter, the heavy snow is just too darn brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 66 mph gust in Rantoul IL. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1045 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014 DISCUSSION ISSUED 1045 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014 HAD SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY PAST HOUR AND CURRENTLY THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NE INTO NW VERMILION COUNTY AT 1030 AM. RANTOUL JUST HAD A WIND GUST OF 66 MPH WITH THUNDERSTORMS TO THEIR EAST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT NE OF VERMILION COUNTY IN NEXT HALF HOUR. HAD 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM I-74 NORTH SO FAR THIS MORNING WHILE A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF I-74 WITH 0.23 INCH ICE AT JACKONSVILLE. LESS COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MORE SCATTERED. BACK EDGE OF MIXED WINTER PCPN OVER EASTERN IA AND NE MO SO EXPECT PCPN TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON, LASTING LONGEST OVER EAST CENTRAL IL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMEST LAYERS ALOFT PEAKING ABOUT NOW AND THEN SOME COOLING IN THERMAL LAYERS FROM 18Z INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXED PCPN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW OVER NW COUNTIES. STILL A MIX OF PCPN OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 AS TEMPS ALREADY NEAR FREEZING CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS. HIGHS ONLY REACH 30-32F OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 2-4 INCHES OF MORE SNOW. UPDATED FORECAST TO BE RELEASED IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 just west of QC is going to be jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nice returns moving over Iroquois county right now. IKK up next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wow @ Rantoul. That's kinda unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We may be under better returns, but flake size is meh at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wow @ Rantoul. That's kinda unexpected. I'm not seeing much on the radar that would have supported that strong of winds, but it was measured by the sensor at the airport there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wow @ Rantoul. That's kinda unexpected. Pretty awesome. METAR KTIP 171635Z AUTO 12022G57KT M1/4SM -SN M04/M05 A2991 RMK AO2 P0006 T10361051 TSNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We may be under better returns, but flake size is meh at best you just got into the better returns, it should improve. I had puffballs under 20+ dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 you just got into the better returns, it should improve. I had puffballs under 20+ dbz If that is what you got with 20dBZ, imagine the 35-40dBZ coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 KDVN 171624Z AUTO 15011KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG BKN005 OVC018 M05/M06 A2983 RMKAO2 P0000 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 nice compact little system, looks like some nice frontogenesis punching into SE IA/W IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Flake size here isn't that great either, but there is alot of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wind has been the story here in Sheboygan Co. WI so far. Woke up @6 to 15-20 out of the SE and it's gradually picked up to a steady 20-25, with frequent gusts to 30-35. Peak gust here has been 38. Live out in open country, so there's been a lot of blowing and drifting. (We have a few inches of recent fluff available) Went to town and had to dig my way thru the last 50' of driveway. That was a surprise. Don't get too many drifting events with SSE winds. Realize it's been a dream winter for many on the forum, (IL/IN/MI, it seems) Congrats to everyone who's been getting it. Up here, tho, this could be our best storm of the winter. I'm at 37.2" for the season, and the best snow was 6" on Dec. 22nd (which didn't have more than a 10mph wind.) Other than that, it's been a true nickel-and-dime winter, which gets monotonous. So yeah, I'm psyched for something that looks like a real snowstorm. As I finish this post, steady snow has moved in. But visibility is still at least 1-1.5 miles, so nothing special yet. Enjoying the surface obs from places like MSN, CID, DVN and the like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 you just got into the better returns, it should improve. I had puffballs under 20+ dbz The latest wind observations are about 10mph stronger in the Milwaukee area than Chicago, so that's probably contributing to the disappointing flake size. I'd describe it as ripping pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The latest wind observations are about 10mph stronger in the Milwaukee area than Chicago, so that's probably contributing to the disappointing flake size. I'd describe it as ripping pixie dust. bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 vortex just getting into the good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 should get rockin' here again soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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