Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I miss the discontinued heavy snow warning. This would be a perfect event for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The 4z HRRR had 1 hour precip >.25" in north central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I miss the discontinued heavy snow warning. was always something special about being under one. This x100 Takes me back to the days of 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah I agree with you guys. I miss the heavy snow warning, and also the snow advisory. Wish they would leave winter weather advisories for moderate snow/ice mix travel implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If I were to bet, I'd say 6-8" will be the amounts in LOT's warning text in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If I were to bet, I'd say 6-8" will be the amounts in LOT's warning text in a few hours. That would be my guess as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 A bit off topic, but here's how I'd distribute things if I had the choice.. Blizzard Warning...Heavy snow (+SN 1/4 or less) and strong winds reducing visibility to <1/4 mile with wind gusts in excess of 45mph for at least 3 hours. Winter Storm Warning...Heavy snowfall of >6" in <12hrs, or 8" in <24hrs combined with wind gusts in excess of 30mph.Heavy Snow Warning...Heavy snowfall of >6" in <12hrs, or 8" in <24hrs with wind gusts <30mph.Ice Storm Warning...Freezing rain glaze of >0.5" in <24hrs.Freezing Rain Advisory...Freezing rain glaze of 0.25-0.50" in <24hrs.Snow Advisory...Snow accumulating 3-6" in <24hrs.Winter Weather Advisory...Freezing rain glaze of 0.10-0.25", or snowfall <3" combined with any ice accumulation >0.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 thought yesterday we'd have some good banter between the LAF Oscar M's today with this one. Guess Tim already debbied his way to the record and Hoosier is warming his popsicle with severe dreams. Oh forgot about snow advisory too. Good ole days.. No comment on gubberment changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 6z NAM continues improvement. .60" liquid just south of me and still showing rates of 2-3"/hr. Should average 12-13:1 ratios and any convection will only increase them. Bumping final call to 6.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 my 2-2.5 call not looking so hot. wetter models helping out my optimism to pull off 4" but still stuck in the pickle in the middle feeling.. Brewers 5" call and NWS looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Earlier I said 3-5" with isolated Wyandotte jackpots to 6". I feel confident enough to bump all those numbers up 1" for the area. 4-6" with isolated 7" jackpots for SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Some lightning north of Sioux City, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Some lightning north of Sioux City, IA. Not at all surprised considering this: There is also a MCD out for thunderstorms and freezing rain for NE MO/SW IL. Needless to say I don't believe anyone was expecting this much elevated CAPE to be nosing into the area. This really makes me feel that we will be seeing lots of thundersnow reports today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wow, looks great for the LOT crew. Gonna be some fun in those bands for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Earlier I said 3-5" with isolated Wyandotte jackpots to 6". I feel confident enough to bump all those numbers up 1" for the area. 4-6" with isolated 7" jackpots for SEMI.Are you believing the models showing it weakening a bit as it heads east which will make thundersnow unlikely here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 nice little appetizer band of mod+ snow and gust to close to 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 so LOT went HAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Are you believing the models showing it weakening a bit as it heads east which will make thundersnow unlikely here? Not at all, models have been too quick to weaken these systems all year, which is why we keep overachieving. Ride the seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 latest RAP runs have predictably come way down on qpf since that .70+ run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 nice to see 40+ dbz all over on COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Half inch at least in the bank before the main event. Pretty close to the dec nuke out there in the band moving through... If we can match this stuff out there now in the afternoon oh my.. Should be fun at times for many.. about as good of spread the wealth as they come from mn to in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Half inch at least in the bank before the main event. Pretty close to the dec nuke out there in the band moving through... If we can match this stuff out there now in the afternoon oh my.. Should be fun at times for many.. about as good of spread the wealth as they come from mn to in. some nice heavy bands but returns look too scattered to hit the high end of forecasted amounts IMO...we'll see how it fills in as the low deepens. short term models still struggling, probably related to the convective nature...RUC-weenie really low balling, HRR broad brushing 4-6" which seems most realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This does not look impressive on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 some nice heavy bands but returns look too scattered to hit the high end of forecasted amounts IMO...we'll see how it fills in as the low deepens. short term models still struggling, probably related to the convective nature...RUC-weenie really low balling, HRR broad brushing 4-6" which seems most realistic. It should fill in like you said as the low deepens. The convective nature is going to make things interesting with the thundersnow potential adding to the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This does not look impressive on radar looks as modeled IMO...going to be a screwholes and lollies event. Anything impressive total wise is dependent on convective returns hanging over one area but i'm pretty skeptical on that happening. My 2.8" is going to bust but 4-6" area wide still looks safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 looks as modeled IMO...going to be a screwholes and lollies event. Anything impressive total wise is dependent on convective returns hanging over one area but i'm pretty skeptical on that happening. My 2.8" is going to bust but 4-6" area wide still looks safe. Yeah, I have to agree, there might be a couple lucky 7" or 8" totals but for the most part they should end up around 5" or 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 LOT is well covered with a general 4-5 inches but the possibility of isolated convective potential adding to localized amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nice band out ahead about to move through here. Don't know how much if any makes it to the ground but it should at least start wetting the whistles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This does not look impressive on radar Slower development of the overall storm could be the key to higher totals in the end. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Things are bumping here in the twin cities. But I wish I was back in Chicago. I see those lines to the SW moving in. Could be an awesome few hours. Please post if there is thunder snow...as if I have to ask. I'm sure you guys are all over it if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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