Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 sat AM zone for kenosha.. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. now its 4.3" on the map.. caving that extra .3" with more model data.. lmao.. this is so foolish. For some reason that's not appearing on the page I'm seeing. I even cleaned my cache out. Anyways... 4-5" sounds good I think for here and Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Bumping call to 5" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 6" area wide on GFS here. I'd bet LOT upgrades to warnings No inside knowledge but agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 7.13" MKE prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 7.13" MKE Your prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think I'll go with 3.5" in CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't know if he will post his thoughts but Gino really likes thundersnow chances tomorrow. "Hella tingly" he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't know if he will post his thoughts but Gino really likes thundersnow chances tomorrow. "Hella tingly" he said. DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PROBABLY BREAKING UP LATE. CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MODELS STARTING UP SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...WHICH IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN COULD RESULT IN A MUCH EARLIER ONSET TO IFR CONDITIONS THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT TAFS. HANDLING THIS WITH A VCSH IN THE TAFS AND WILL MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING AND RE-ACCESS LATER. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL RESULT IN A QUICK RAMP UP OF SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT EXPECTED BY MID-LATE MORNING. BIG STORY WILL BE THE INTENSE SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT 3 TO 6 HOUR LONG WINDOW OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON. GETTING FAIRLY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT PERIODIC VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS SNOW BEGINS BUT WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR LIKELY AND CRIPPLING RATES OF 2"+ PER HOUR POSSIBLE THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE A BIT OF A MOOT POINT. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF LINGER MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 A wham bam thank you NAM event...... Still going with 5" in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't know if he will post his thoughts but Gino really likes thundersnow chances tomorrow. "Hella tingly" he said. I think it was LOT that mentioned the elevated CAPE. That still looks to be there on the 00z runs so it wouldn't be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Says he wouldn't be surprised at some double digit totals in the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Snow still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Upping to 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Might as well try and add thundersnow onto the list for this epic winter in LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Snow still coming down. 0.70" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 nother nice hit for SNE. wow. almost more real storms in the last week to track than we've had in 3 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.70" QPF. Super juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Says he wouldn't be surprised at some double digit totals in the area.. Where'd he say that? Not doubting the validity; just didn't see it in his update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Where'd he say that? Not doubting the validity; just didn't see it in his update. Him and I were talking earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Him and I were talking earlier Ah-ha. Good man speaking to the big, important people. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro still showing around 0.4" precip here. Been relatively consistent. Was a bit wetter than the NCEPs, and now it's a bit drier. 4.2" call looking solid as a rock. Heaviest snowfall of the season so far of 4.4" (Dec 21/22) is looking like it's in jeopardy of being defeated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just got bumped to a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 WSW here now; saying snowfall totals in excess of 6 inches w/ exact totals being updated in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL1232 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014ILZ003>005-008-010>012-019>021-032-171445-/O.UPG.KLOT.WW.Y.0022.140217T1200Z-140218T0000Z//O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0005.140217T1200Z-140218T0000Z/WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-LIVINGSTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...PONTIAC1232 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PMCST THIS EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNINGTO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND TAPER OFF BY EARLYTHIS EVENING.* ACCUMULATION...POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TORECEIVE TOTALS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTSWILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.* PRIMARY IMPACT...SNOW WILL FALL HEAVILY...WITH SNOWFALL RATESPOSSIBLY REACHING TWO TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR FOR ATIME...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOWCOVERED ROADS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION.* OTHER IMPACTS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITHIN THE HEAVIERBANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1226 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014 DISCUSSION 1226 AM CST THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND EVEN SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW HAVE QPF VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL ACROSS A LARGE PORTIOON OF THE AREA...AND SHOULD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. GIVEN THE CHANGE IN THINKING HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE WSW AND GET THE WARNING OUT NOW TO GIVE A COUPLE EXTRA HOURS HEADS UP FOR OUR USERS. MORE FINE TUNED SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE PUT OUT WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not sure I've seen this in a warning text for Chicago before, but kinda cool. And if things break right, certainly justifiable. * TRAVEL THROUGH CHICAGO O`HARE AND MIDWAY AIRPORTS COULD ALSO BESIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Solid to high end advisory event for the DVN cwa. Not sure I agree with the warning for the LOT cwa. Warning amounts are possible, but I don't think they'll be widespread enough for a warning IMO. Sort of a borderline event, so opinions will differ on that obviously. Looking like a fun event for much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think the warning is pretty justified. Any convection and all bets are off. Gino wouldn't mention chance at double digit amounts to me if he wasn't confident., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I miss the discontinued heavy snow warning. was always something special about being under one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Solid to high end advisory event for the DVN cwa. Not sure I agree with the warning for the LOT cwa. Warning amounts are possible, but I don't think they'll be widespread enough for a warning IMO. Sort of a borderline event, so opinions will differ on that obviously. Looking like a fun event for much of the region. LOT is banking on some 6"+ amounts in their area which I could see happening, the short duration makes the WSW warranted. I could actually see parts of MKX/GRR/DTX needing a WSW though I don't know if any of them pull the trigger like LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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