wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think the more important trend would be if it slows and goes negative tilt even more so then QPF numbers. Then again what do I know. Sort of getting to the time of year where these things can really go convective. It seems like LOT has done a good job all along of covering these potentials. This late in the game QPF numbers ultimately matter more. If we were talking a few days ago, I would agree since taking QPF verbatim several days out is less prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This late in the game QPF numbers ultimately matter more. If we were talking a few days ago, I would agree since taking QPF verbatim several days out is less prudent. No actually if it slows like Baum says that matters more, if anything looking at the 500mb/700mb/850mb patterns with this. I am surprised how low the QPF is, it should be absolutely ripping when this thing comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This late in the game QPF numbers ultimately matter more. If we were talking a few days ago, I would agree since taking QPF verbatim several days out is less prudent. Perhaps. Either way 3-6 call probably covers it, and those QPF numbers fit that. Can always hope for a surprise, and seems like that possibility exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 No actually if it slows like Baum says that matters more, if anything looking at the 500mb/700mb/850mb patterns with this. I am surprised how low the QPF is, it should be absolutely ripping when this thing comes through. It's true that it does matter if it slows, but one NAM run showing that is unlikely to be a trend toward that anyway, if the other models, especially the hi-res short range ones, then that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 4-6" looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think the more important trend would be if it slows and goes negative tilt even more so then QPF numbers. Then again what do I know. Sort of getting to the time of year where these things can really go convective. It seems like LOT has done a good job all along of covering these potentials. 4km NAM does try to do this and wraps precip back westward and still snowing near 3z in northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's true that it does matter if it slows, but one NAM run showing that is unlikely to be a trend toward that anyway, if the other models, especially the hi-res short range ones, then that's a different story. LOT earlier today implied GFS was doing so slightly also: THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...THAT IS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFALL GOING IN PARTS OF FAR NE IL Still 4-5 inches is a nice fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Everything has overperformed this winter. Big snowstorms, little nuisance events, everything in the middle, it snows when its not forecast, it snows when its not on radar...so why not! Tomorrows system has overperformer written all over it. My only worry is that DTX is bullish. They never are bullish, so thats my only worry or underperformance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 21z SREF has come back up to 5.1" for DTW. There's a decent spread again as well (many more members above 6", none below 2") and even a 10" member. Been steady in the 4-6" range which I think is a solid forecast. Has the potential to overperform a bit too...which given how our winter has gone, is definitely a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 WGN RPM going with 3.4" at MDW, 3.9" at ORD. Jim Ramsey pretty much just running with those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Welp, stronger no good for here. NAM has very little snow now for LAF...maybe an inch at best, if that. Looks like it may even go to plain rain for a time. Always been the fear with this one. But, good stuff for those up north. Looks like a solid hit. What? There's no plain rain on that run. Looks like it mixes for a couple hours at the start so that part is a step in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 From the bullseye on the 18z RGEM...to a sucker hole on the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Welp, stronger no good for here. NAM has very little snow now for LAF...maybe an inch at best, if that. Looks like it may even go to plain rain for a time. Always been the fear with this one. But, good stuff for those up north. Looks like a solid hit. Looks like 95% snow to me? Initially a little warm but warm layer is quite dry so dynamic cooling should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 From the bullseye on the 18z RGEM...to a sucker hole on the 0z run. rgem sucker hole.gif eh, JUST south of us I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 What? There's no plain rain on that run. Looks like it mixes for a couple hours at the start so that part is a step in the wrong direction. I looked at it quickly, so my bad. Regardless, definitely a step towards less snow for us. Not a shocker, considering we've been riding the line all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 eh, JUST south of us I think. Could be, just thought the placement was funny. I was hoping it was the next shading up, but then I saw the 17mm bullseye in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Talk about riding the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 WGN RPM going with 3.4" at MDW, 3.9" at ORD. Jim Ramsey pretty much just running with those numbers. They haven't revoked Jim's Met License yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Talk about riding the line Haha, I was just going to post that. Mixing 15 miles south of here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Haha, I was just going to post that. Mixing 15 miles south of here? More like 15 feet. That looks ridiculously borderline. Wish those maps had county outlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Heavy snow wording now for tonight and tomorrow here in St Paul. Earlier today had 2-6" forecasted, now forecast is for 5-8". There's an eerie calmness before the storm. Should get started around 2am here. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 More like 15 feet. That looks ridiculously borderline. Wish those maps had county outlines. Yep, well...I think we know the drill here. WAA always underdone on the models...and a quick hitter, so any time spent mixing is going to cut snow totals. I'll stick with my 2.0" call, for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 So it looks like the model average for Detroit is about ~4". Meh...but at least there's still room for overachievement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Everything has overperformed this winter. Big snowstorms, little nuisance events, everything in the middle, it snows when its not forecast, it snows when its not on radar...so why not! Tomorrows system has overperformer written all over it. My only worry is that DTX is bullish. They never are bullish, so thats my only worry or underperformance Haha! February has actually been kind of quiet over here. Probably because 65% of the lake is frozen over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yep, well...I think we know the drill here. WAA always underdone on the models...and a quick hitter, so any time spent mixing is going to cut snow totals. I'll stick with my 2.0" call, for now... Short range models and upstream obs are going to be critical tomorrow. That's always important but even more when it's so borderline. I'm still hoping that evap cooling will minimize any mixing at onset and then we can hold off any attempt at temps aloft sneaking above 0C but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS with 6-8 for all of N. IL and most of southern and central WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Short range models and upstream obs are going to be critical tomorrow. That's always important but even more when it's so borderline. I'm still hoping that evap cooling will minimize any mixing at onset and then we can hold off any attempt at temps aloft sneaking above 0C but who knows. 0z GFS has us on the edge too. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS with 6-8 for all of N. IL and most of southern and central WI Fond du Lac jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's quite funny that the GFS is one of the wetter models now. Still ~4" here. Seems to be the magic number to ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0z GFS has us on the edge too. Should be fun. One thing's for sure...whatever falls is going to be cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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