BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yeah, should be a solid event for MKE. No chance LAF beats them in this event. 9z plumes up to 2.4" for LAF...but p-type questions remain, as expected. I think I like 2.0" and some freezing rain for here. Should be a nice "minor" mess. I'd go a little higher...fairly comfortable with 2-3" but some potential to go higher if mixing isn't an issue. So basically what I'm saying is that I can't narrow my 2-4" range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Looks solid, maybe a couple isolated spots up to 6", a Wyandotte jackpot special. Yep, I agree. Yet another Josh hit. Pics forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 SREF plumes continue to be inconsistent and tell me 3" is just as likely as 6". Anyways, having the NAM as the driest model is probably a good thing and the GFS and Euro indicate around .35" qpf (virtually every Euro ensemble has at least .35"). First and probably final call for MKE is 5.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 LOT throws a log on the ALELK fire: NO CHANGES FOR THE LATE MORNING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UPDATE. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...THAT IS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFALL GOING IN PARTS OF FAR NE IL AND NW IN LIKELY SLIGHTLY AFTER 6 PM. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW APPRECIABLE LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON SNOWFALL RATES. WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER ASSESS AS WELL AS WITH SNOWFALL START TIME. SEE NOTHING AT THIS TIME FOR ANY CHANGE THAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO THE TYPE OF HEADLINE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. Final call 4.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Sticking with my 4.2" call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yeah the differences aloft between the 0/12z GFS at 21z tomorrow are night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z NMM/ARW snowfall maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro with a large area of .3-.4" across WI and IL and .5" over Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Think I'll stick with the general 3-5" call, but gonna go with 4.2" for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro with .45" liquid exactly at ARR/DPA/ORD and with sfc temps probably between 25-28 and 850s around -5ish, ratios should be a bit better than average. Maybe 12-13:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 FWIW... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1202 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014VALID FEB 16/1200 UTC THRU FEB 20/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS ...SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY......SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ADVANCING TO THE LOWERGREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEM GLOBALCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAYAND ADVANCE PROGRESSIVELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTTHROUGH MON. THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS THOUGH IS EXPECTEDTO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST...AND THE LATEST MODELS SUPPORT ANEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IMPACTING THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LAKES REGIONAND NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AND TUES. THIS WILL DRIVE ANINTENSIFYING SFC LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LIFTNEWD INTO THE LWR GRT LAKES REGION BY EARLY TUES...BUT THERE ISVERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP JUST OFF THENEW ENGLAND COAST NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK INVOF THE GULF OF MAINE.THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED STRONGER AND BIT SLOWERWHICH IS A TREND TWD THE ALREADY MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER 00ZUKMET/00Z GEM GLOBAL AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00ZECENS MEAN HAVE TRENDED TWD THE STRONGER CONSENSUS AS WELL. THE00Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW...AND ESP WITHINCREASINGLY ZONAL UPSTREAM MEAN LYR FLOW. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFSMAY STILL BE A TAD TOO FAST...AND ESP WITH THEIR TREND CONTINUINGTO BE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE STRONGEST MODEL CLUSTER FOR THE TIMEBEING IS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM GLOBAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 This mornings snowfall was an exact match IMBY and at DTW. Snowfall of 1.2" with 0.05" water equivalent. Looks like a general 1-2" in SE MI. I am now at 74.0" on the season with DTW at 72.6"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 4,656 call of the winter: 3.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 My call will stay at 4.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 SREF plumes down again at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 SREF plumes down again at ORDIt's going to snow again. " old patterns die hard." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 SREF Plumes a little over 5 inches at KBUF. Hoping we can get that amount and put the Buffalo airport over 100 inches on the year before the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'll ride high and go with 4.8" at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 2-2.5" at best call looks Gucci. best snows in every direction like 90% of the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Just for giggles, some maps mainly pertaining to Northern IN, NW OH, and Southern Lower MI. IWX Latest IWX Rob Lydick WANE TV FT Wayne Brandon Redmond IndianaWeatherOnline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Will be interesting to see whether ORD, MKE, or LAF gets the most snow out of this. You can make a case for any location really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The evolution shown on the models for this system is funny. So instead of organized northern and southern stream pieces of energy completely phasing, they only partially phase long enough for the northern stream piece to shear apart and break off from the northern stream (thus the crap outcome we get). This POS system can't get out of here fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm thinking at least 95% snow here. Always the lingering thought about WAA being underdone and resulting in more mixed precip than expected, but I'm leaning away from that at this point. Most likely time for a mix may be right at onset until evaporational cooling would cool the entire column below freezing but this looks brief if it happens at all. Beyond that I am banking on heavy enough precip to keep the column cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 if LAF is 95% snow that's an easy triumph of laf and ord over mke. put madison in mke's spot and it would be a lot more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Grid forecast has 3-7" for Monday, with heavy snow wording, LOT snow map with an area wide splash of 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 IWX just threw up an advisory. Saying 3-5" north of US 24 and 2-4" south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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