Radioman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We've had countless threads full of Euro bashing all winter (a quick search shows multiple posts to that effect from everyone in this thread) and all the sudden everyone is back to riding it? Seems kind of weenie to me, but it's no big deal. I'll back out of this thread and let you guys be. 2.8" final call EURO has been awful on clippers this year, outside of that, I don't think it's been that bad. GGEM has been pretty solid this season if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We've had countless threads full of Euro bashing all winter (a quick search shows multiple posts to that effect from everyone in this thread) and all the sudden everyone is back to riding it? Seems kind of weenie to me, but it's no big deal. I'll back out of this thread and let you guys be. 2.8" final call Now come on, don't go that route...leaving the thread. That's what dummies like me typically do. Your weather knowledge is vast and important to our crew. Alas, I'm not sure we can say what model has been the best...with any true verification. That's all I'm saying. GFS had a hot hand earlier this winter I thought, but I haven't been enamored with it since. But maybe that's just my weenie goggles. I guess we'll see what happens with the Mon system, but I wouldn't count out any solution at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Can't beat this for a Saturday morning. Just need Geos to say something about his snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS has been the best model all winter...it says non-event. Won't get excited until it budges (12z didn't)The GFS fell off in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Snowing like mad in St. Paul, MN. Visibility under a half mile. Wind is really whipping too. Hope the Chicago crew back home gets a few hrs of decent snow later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Snowing like mad in St. Paul, MN. Visibility under a half mile. Wind is really whipping too. Hope the Chicago crew back home gets a few hrs of decent snow later. Welcome, I hope you enjoy your stay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Regarding Monday. I would right now ride a all foreign blend. As this system starts to effect us in MN. all modeling is showing a strong surface ridge behind it and in front of it. The NCEP model suite is about 6-8 hours to fast with it, as they move the eastern ridge out to fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Can't beat this for a Saturday morning. Just need Geos to say something about his snowpack. +10. I was outside chopping up ice and I don't even need gloves or even a coat on really. Did not expect today to be like this. Only lost 1/2" in the last 3 days due to sublimation most likely. 17z RAP not coming in much wetter. Impressive reports out of Iowa though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro is wetter. .50" liquid here about and all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Welcome, I hope you enjoy your stay Thanks! Just bought a home here. I'll be moving up for good in a few months. Looking forward to MN winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Tough one but I think something in the 2-4" range is a sensible call for LAF. More like 2" if mixing is a big problem and more like 4" if it's all or mostly snow. We are really riding the edge and any underestimation of WAA would be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This has been doing very well over the winter. I think it is based on the Gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Tough one but I think something in the 2-4" range is a sensible call for LAF. More like 2" if mixing is a big problem and more like 4" if it's all or mostly snow. We are really riding the edge and any underestimation of WAA would be a problem. Solid call right now. Might be one of those storms where we wait until game time to see what we're going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Solid call right now. Might be one of those storms where we wait until game time to see what we're going to get. One thing that we can say is that the threat of plain rain in any quantity is looking less and less likely. Pretty remarkable as this looked like a safe rainstorm for us as of a couple days ago (outside of perhaps a brief shot of mix at onset). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 One thing that we can say is that the threat of plain rain in any quantity is looking less and less likely. Pretty remarkable as this looked like a safe rainstorm for us as of a couple days ago (outside of perhaps a brief shot of mix at onset). All along, I've thought it was going to be a safely "warm" storm for us. Guess not...at the moment anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 One thing that we can say is that the threat of plain rain in any quantity is looking less and less likely. Pretty remarkable as this looked like a safe rainstorm for us as of a couple days ago (outside of perhaps a brief shot of mix at onset). This looked like a rainstorm for US (brief frozen at onset) until about 3 days ago per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 UKIE/EURO look the sweetest for YYZ. GEM and NAM have backed off some. GFS still the driest. I'd probably cut the difference between the EURO/UKIE and GEM/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro now has 0.07" qpf for DTW tomorrow morning and then 0.54" with the main show Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GEM and Euro would both indicate the best snow of the season so far for here. Solid 4-6" type of snow. Hope trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The GFS was too dry with the last medium-sized event (2/4 I think it was?) and too warm on bl temps on a few East Coast storms the past couple of weeks. Seems to be a consistent problem for now. And considering the trend has been colder and wetter for about 48 hours now, I'd lean high. Probably 3-5" here with room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It appears the current clipper may be a bit of an underperformer. The flake size is pretty small and not piling up like cotton balls would. The reports from out west and northwest aren't too impressive so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 It appears the current clipper may be a bit of an underperformer. The flake size is pretty small and not piling up like cotton balls would. The reports from out west and northwest aren't too impressive so far. There's widespread reports of 1-3" CID is 1/2M and ALO is 1/4M with +SN and 0.11" liquid in the past hour. If you were expecting anything more than what's occuring, you were setting yourself up for failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Top down saturation going on here. Snow should begin within the next hour or so. Expecting about an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 There's widespread reports of 1-3" CID is 1/2M and ALO is 1/4M with +SN and 0.11" liquid in the past hour. If you were expecting anything more than what's occuring, you were setting yourself up for failure. I'm referring more to the ratios maybe being lowered than expected. Here in Cedar Rapids the tiny flakes poured down for the first hour, but we only got a half inch of snow. A guy up by Waterloo says he has 2" and it's nearly over. The last day's models suggested some 3-4 inch totals if the ratios were favorable. The snow is only going to last 3 or 4 hours so it has to pile up quickly to exceed 2". 0.5"/hr won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 18z NAM should end up stronger/wetter than the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 18z NAM looks like it's heading towards a more robust EURO/UKIE like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah the Mon system is looking a lot more fun compared to what many of the models had indicated yesterday. Had been expecting mainly a mix-bag here, but it's looking more and more like primarily snow. Could come down quite heavy for awhile if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 18z NAM at noon Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM almost closes off the 534 dam contour at H5 at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 4-6" north of I-80 on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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