Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 EURO is closer to coastline and more dynamic. We get some backend qpf and definitely no cave in. Other scenarios this year has hadthe EURO bowing to the GFS but today, not. Might be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not a single gefs member shows the euro op solution. None are even close irt to strength and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We need a minor cave by the gfs sometime in the next 2-3 runs. I mean come on man, we're basically inside of 4 days for the important parts. I haven't seen them this divided at this lead all year. I don't know what to believe other than this isn't a good pattern for dc snow. But flukes happen every once in a while... Bob, in this pattern 90hrs is lifetime. Go look at the 12Z plume diagram for BWI and look at how the various members can't even decide when the storm will be. They also sort of like next weekends storm for snow which to me is somewhat of a surprise though I must admit, I haven't looked at much since yesterday in any detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The north shift only works when.......never mind Ji you better get a nap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 EURO is closer to coastline and more dynamic. We get some backend qpf and definitely no cave in. Other scenarios this year has hadthe EURO bowing to the GFS but today, not. Might be on to something.Eh the track is almost identical to last night it's just stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Bob, in this pattern 90hrs is lifetime. Go look at the 12Z plume diagram for BWI and look at how the various members can't even decide when the storm will be. They also sort of like next weekends storm for snow which to me is somewhat of a surprise though I must admit, I haven't looked at much since yesterday in any detail.Yea, no kidding on the 90 hours = 90 years. I guess I'm somewhat caught off guard because we haven't seen a lightspeed moist pac flow all season. Next weekend is popping up as decent in the ensembles but fleeting attm. Last night eps showed a spread of precip on the eastern 1/3rd of the conus for 2.5 days. Solutions are everywhere. I'm just going to sit and casually observe and not break out the laser. It's the smartest play. I'm no more invested today than I was the first time the euro buried us for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm surprised that the euro held serve. Shows why it's not wise to make many statements concerning what a storm will do on wed this early when the guidance has been so chaotic. I don't trust highs going off the coast but the first jan 1987 storm had a low ovr the great lakes and still managed to end up being a good snow storm. Of course it had a 50 50 low if I remember right. it's not, though it is usually a pretty good bet that the storm will trend not in our favor.....as the models want it to snow here much more than is consistent with our climo.... 1987 didnt have a 50-50 I dont think....it was a pretty rotten pattern as you remember, except for a big PNA ridge...of course the Nino probably helped....it also has some east based blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it's not, though it is usually a pretty good bet that the storm will trend not in our favor.....as the models want it to snow here much more than is consistent with our climo.... 1987 didnt have a 50-50 I dont think....it was a pretty rotten pattern as you remember, except for a big PNA ridge...of course the Nino probably helped....it also has some east based blocking 1/08 was also pretty awful pattern-wise... we ended in drizzle/light rain but that was a good thump during the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 In other news...the gefs mean shows eases the goa vortex and pushes ridging into the west / troughing in the east at the end of the run. Looks transient but it's not a warm look for us anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 1/08 was also pretty awful pattern-wise... we ended in drizzle/light rain but that was a good thump during the peak. it wasnt bad....I got 2.5"....perhaps that amount is more consistent with what we might get on wednesday if we get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it wasnt bad....I got 2.5"....perhaps that amount is more consistent with what we might get on wednesday if we get anything Was that the storm that happened on a Sunday where we were supposed to get rain I believe? And LWX was really late in raising WSW's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it wasnt bad....I got 2.5"....perhaps that amount is more consistent with what we might get on wednesday if we get anything Yup--even 1/87 switched to light rain or drizzle further northeast of us after the snow thump. What the Euro is showing verbatim would be more unusual for us: a snow to mix to snow scenario. Psuhoffman keeps on bringing up 2/72, but that was one of the rare cases that had any substantial snow on the backside of a snow-to-rain-to-snow scenario. It's much more common in our "mixy" storms to do the thump then light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Was that the storm that happened on a Sunday where we were supposed to get rain I believe? And LWX was really late in raising WSW's No you're thinking of 2/25/07. This storm was on a weekday--- all during the late morning/mid-day hours. Totally a thread-the-needle situation, and there was a tight gradient from DCA to northwest DC to outside of the beltway. I got 4" before the change over to rain. DCA got 1.3" on 0.75" liquid... IAD was 4.0" on 0.69" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 FWIW, the 12z Euro analogs are quite bullish of the top five, 1-5 day analogs, 4 had snow 5.8" 2.5" 1.3" two 3.6" events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAVGEM hits us but it's kinda mild. It's actually not that bad of a model these days but not sure it's meaningful either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wxbell isn't loading the euro ensembles for whatever reason. Anyone see them yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wxbell isn't loading the euro ensembles for whatever reason. Anyone see them yet? I see the Euro ensemble mean... but only at 24 hr increments 96 -- 1035 H in SNE with def CAD sig... 1012 L in GOM (SE of Mobile, AL by ~100 miles or so)... DCA/IAD/BWI -6 850s 120 -- 1004 L east of Ocean City by ~150 miles or so... 0c 850 line is basically along the Blue Ridge... IAD 0 DCA/BWI/EZF all around +1 That's all I can see Bob... does that help any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I see the Euro ensemble mean... but only at 24 hr increments 96 -- 1035 H in SNE with def CAD sig... 1012 L in GOM (SE of Mobile, AL by ~100 miles or so)... DCA/IAD/BWI -6 850s 120 -- 1004 L east of Ocean City by ~150 miles or so... 0c 850 line is basically along the Blue Ridge... IAD 0 DCA/BWI/EZF all around +1 That's all I can see Bob... does that help any? Thanks. Definitely sounds like the mean is west of the op. Maybe tracks over obx? I would assume we get snow on front. That's fine. I expect to changeover if I get any snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thanks. Definitely sounds like the mean is west of the op. Maybe tracks over obx? I would assume we get snow on front. That's fine. I expect to changeover if I get any snow at all. FWIW, Dave aka DT says this re ensembles: ** uPDATE ** 12 EURO ENSEMBLE ..bings the Low UP the coast and ON the coast .. NONE of this out to sea **** all of NC gos over to rain on the euro ensembles and does all of central and eastern VA EAST of the Blue Ridge. But from ROA to Winchseter to Frdereick MD ... the Shenandoah valley - stays all snow DCA BWI gets several inches of snow goes over to rain as does all of NJ DEL NYC most fo CT and eastern mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The ENS is a big hit up 95 actually. The Euro has stayed pretty damn consistent. I might have to go all in. I have been trying to keep my mouth shut after this weekends disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The ENS is a big hit up 95 actually. The Euro has stayed pretty damn consistent. I might have to go all in. I have been trying to keep my mouth shut after this weekends disaster. Baby Unicorn possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wouldn't really say it's west of the op but it looks like the op in general sans the smoothing. And the track there is again pretty much like last night it's just stronger. Given the consistency you can't really heavily discount it probably.. tho the Euro still does tend to be overamped in this range.. but the GFS also tends to suck with EC lows in this range. So................ who the heck knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thanks Yoda. I find DT unreadable most of the time so I avoid. I should have checked there. Sounds like the EPS has been as consistent as the op for what, 4 runs now? GFS better start changing its tune so I can up my confidence from 5% to 6%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I guess since the nam didn't help us, there was no mention, but it was amazingly consistent for a historic snow for all of N Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wouldn't really say it's west of the op but it looks like the op in general sans the smoothing. And the track there is again pretty much like last night it's just stronger. Given the consistency you can't really heavily discount it probably.. tho the Euro still does tend to be overamped in this range.. but the GFS also tends to suck with EC lows in this range. So................ who the heck knows. I think all we can say is that the EURO and the ensembles probably give us a good chance at accumulating snows... and leave it at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wouldn't really say it's west of the op but it looks like the op in general sans the smoothing. And the track there is again pretty much like last night it's just stronger. Given the consistency you can't really heavily discount it probably.. tho the Euro still does tend to be overamped in this range.. but the GFS also tends to suck with EC lows in this range. So................ who the heck knows. The ironic thing is I could care less about stronger/weaker. I just want to actually believe we stand a chance. We're most likely going to get warm for some time after the holiday weekend (I'm kinda looking forward to it)and then after that we run really short on our window. If we can pull this one off I'm good for the year. It's a better winter already than I expected but it would leave a bit of a taste in my mouth if we blank out this month. Too much cold and moisture around to epic fail. And missing the paste bomb was a solid gut punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 time for the GFS to trend toward the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The ironic thing is I could care less about stronger/weaker. I just want to actually believe we stand a chance. We're most likely going to get warm for some time after the holiday weekend (I'm kinda looking forward to it)and then after that we run really short on our window. If we can pull this one off I'm good for the year. It's a better winter already than I expected but it would leave a bit of a taste in my mouth if we blank out this month. Too much cold and moisture around to epic fail. And missing the paste bomb was a solid gut punch. Yeah, maybe not critical but given the pattern is fairly meh you probably want strong over weak as long as it's not too close. I think if nothing else the Euro says don't give up yet. I'd probably still lean against it at this point but if it shows again at 0z or everything else goes along maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah, maybe not critical but given the pattern is fairly meh you probably want strong over weak as long as it's not too close. I think if nothing else the Euro says don't give up yet. I'd probably still lean against it at this point but if it shows again at 0z or everything else goes along maybe not.I'm leaning against it for sure. But given all guidance that's the smart play anyways. Not just a gut thing.EPS came up finally. Looks really good to me. Definitely a bit stronger on the means with slp from last night. Precip panels look nice too. @ 7pm Wed the 850 line is close to RIC and decent precip on the ground. Not sure I can ask much more at this stage. It's clearly not wavering...yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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