Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it's still 3.5 days away, the overrunning part....man, it's hard to believe that it won't shift north to give us at least a little bit The north shift only works when.......never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What is it saying for IAD and areas in NOVA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't care if its only one event...we'll give the Euro back it's spot on top of the throne if it can nail this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it holds in high pressure longer, long enough to hold in cold air and get a nice track, perhaps because the core low to our NW is out in the plains and doesn't really affect us until the event is over....to be honest the margin of error on the euro is bigger than it has been....that is assuming there is a storm at all Matt, gfs has had glimpses of this solution. The low gets going off the coast of NC. GFS looked a couple times like it wanted to pop the low with the overunning area but never does and the whole mess is strung out. The is the best solution the euro has had irt getting snow here. As mitch said too, it's hard to believe that the overunning doesn't ooze up here. There is precip on the eps means up here but the majority of the members keep is centered in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like close to .75 liquid for dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it holds in high pressure longer, long enough to hold in cold air and get a nice track, perhaps because the core low to our NW is out in the plains and doesn't really affect us until the event is over....to be honest the margin of error on the euro is bigger than it has been....that is assuming there is a storm at all actually, comparing to last night it isn't terribly different with the CONUS...the big difference is the storm amplifies more and is more organized...also last night's run there was a much sharper inverted trough to our west when the storm started here that has mostly vanished (a met can correct me if I am wrong).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like close to .75 liquid for dca Verbatim, how much of that is not snow? It's got to be close to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 850 zero line runs 95 @ 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like close to .75 liquid for dca Whats is say for QPF at Dulles..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 850 zero line runs 95 @ 114 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What is it saying for IAD and areas in NOVA.. Whats is say for QPF at Dulles..? 72 posts and nothing but backyard questions...time for you to hush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Verbatim, how much of that is not snow? It's got to be close to mixing. Looks like snow 95 and west unless there is a warm nose (probably is) through 114. so 3-4"?. I don't think there is a changeover 95 and west verbatim but soundings will tell the real story. 850's move east 114-120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Verbatim, how much of that is not snow? It's got to be close to mixing. 15-20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 DC hovers near freezing from 1am-7am thurs at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 per accuwx, by Thursday 6Z, BWI and DCA are both just above freezing at 850 with only .4-.5" qpf fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 per accuwx, by Thursday 6Z, BWI and DCA are both just above freezing at 850 with only .4-.5" qpf fallen I will take my 3-5 and run with it... i am sure we all would take this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like nothing heavy but longer duration storm. No .50 in 6 hours type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 apparently, it turns back to snow because at 12Z Thursday, DCA is back below freezing at 850 to -.7 and thickness has dropped to 536 BWI is back down to -.4 at 850 same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 per accuwx, by Thursday 6Z, BWI and DCA are both just above freezing at 850 with only .4-.5" qpf fallen there is another 0.15-20 that falls after that with the low amplifying and 850 temps "crashing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 there is another 0.15-20 that falls after that with the low amplifying and 850 temps "crashing" yep, see my post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 looks like a 3-7" event for DC metro...with higher end NW burbs and lower end/mixing DC south and east I would take that ... come on Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If the euro is right overall then it scored its biggest win by a mile this year. I don't have nearly the same confidence I used to @ d4-6 though. But it has been steadfast bringing it up the cold hp before it's too late. I know this isn't a snowstorm pattern but it isn't one for SC/NC either and they seem the most likely to get some accum snow attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Apparently, the UKMET is similar. This is one of the more divided model wars I've seen. I hope you're joking with the "awful" @ 5-8" comment. At least it's not a weeknight. It'll fold tonight..it has to. Of course, I said that last night. UKIE is hard to figure out anyway after 72 re precip or 850s because they only go out to 72... but UKIE has been holding what looks like a classic Miller A type track (can't see 108 to be sure) with a 1010 L over NO at 96 to a 994 L 150 miles or so east of Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I would take that ... come on Euro! this is just about a perfect scenario....it is better than last night which kind of makes me wonder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 this is just about a perfect scenario....it is better than last night which kind of makes me wonder.... We need a minor cave by the gfs sometime in the next 2-3 runs. I mean come on man, we're basically inside of 4 days for the important parts. I haven't seen them this divided at this lead all year. I don't know what to believe other than this isn't a good pattern for dc snow. But flukes happen every once in a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If the euro is right overall then it scored its biggest win by a mile this year. I don't have nearly the same confidence I used to @ d4-6 though. But it has been steadfast bringing it up the cold hp before it's too late. I know this isn't a snowstorm pattern but it isn't one for SC/NC either and they seem the most likely to get some accum snow attm. We can just hope that the euro is catching onto something the others are missing because of its better resolution....The GFS is a very good model, but it is notoriously bad with coastals.....we'll see if it catches on....I still think the chances of screwjob vis whiff or delayed rain or bad track are about 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 this is just about a perfect scenario....it is better than last night which kind of makes me wonder.... funny you say that because although I don't have the updated maps, the mos Euro numbers look a little worse than last night's BUT, the skewts from last night's run showed some surprising warming between 900mb and the surface that could not be seen by the surface and 850 raw numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 funny you say that because although I don't have the updated maps, the mos Euro numbers look a little worse than last night's BUT, the skewts from last night's run showed some surprising warming between 900mb and the surface that could not be seen by the surface and 850 raw numbers yes...you dont have the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We need a minor cave by the gfs sometime in the next 2-3 runs. I mean come on man, we're basically inside of 4 days for the important parts. I haven't seen them this divided at this lead all year. I don't know what to believe other than this isn't a good pattern for dc snow. But flukes happen every once in a while... 90 hours is still a pretty long lead time.....I'm not really committed to any solution or really even leaning that way until we get to 12z on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 this is just about a perfect scenario....it is better than last night which kind of makes me wonder.... I'm surprised that the euro held serve. Shows why it's not wise to make many statements concerning what a storm will do on wed this early when the guidance has been so chaotic. I don't trust highs going off the coast but the first jan 1987 storm had a low ovr the great lakes and still managed to end up being a good snow storm. Of course it had a 50 50 low if I remember right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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