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February Medium/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr

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winter cancel? Just waiting for the Ji stamp of approval.

 

Looks warm through late Feb

I don't know that we are completely out of the game yet. CMC/Euro ensembles have had a consistently decent look for snow in central VA. If this thing continues to trend SE we'll probably stay in the precip shield but the temps will become more of an issue with the weaker low. I sort of see where this is all going but I certainly don't think it's time to put up the white flag.

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I figure it has to look more than okay if NC peeps are talking about lots of ice and 6"+ snows in I-85 area and even ice into SC... so someone is playing around ;)

it doesn't really matter what it looks like if it's wrong.. which is the point.  they are still interested because it still looks decent but if it does what it did this run the next two runs it won't. and it has a good chance of doing so given the pattern. 

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it doesn't really matter what it looks like if it's wrong.. which is the point.  they are still interested because it still looks decent but if it does what it did this run the next two runs it won't. and it has a good chance of doing so given the pattern. 

 

While that could be true, an honest assessment of what it says right now with the caveat of "hey its gonna get worse"  is better than warmer and drier... but thats just IMHO

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While that could be true, an honest assessment of what it says right now with the caveat of "hey its gonna get worse"  is better than warmer and drier... but thats just IMHO

 

you've been here a long time. if you want to play games that's fine but i don't think matt or anyone else is intentionally trolling you or anything.  it could also get better..  who knows. the odds are stacked against it. we all watch the models enough we should learn as we go.. not doing so is a total waste of time.

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you've been here a long time. if you want to play games that's fine but i don't think matt or anyone else is intentionally trolling you or anything.  it could also get better..  who knows. the odds are stacked against it. we all watch the models enough we should learn as we go.. not doing so is a total waste of time.

 

I am not saying he is.... I dont see the QPF... I am just confused when Matt says warmer and drier and I see mets in the SE thread taking about major ice and heavy snows for GA/SC/NC... thats all.  If its warmer and drier, then how are they getting so much snow and ice?  Does the CAD magically disappear by the time it gets up here?

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I am not saying he is.... I dont see the QPF... I am just confused when Matt says warmer and drier and I see mets in the SE thread taking about major ice and heavy snows for GA/SC/NC... thats all.  If its warmer and drier, then how are they getting so much snow and ice?  Does the CAD magically disappear by the time it gets up here?

They score big from first overrunning system. We get nothing from that

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That was supposed to be ours. They stole it. I hope the wizards pound the bobcats into the sand for the rest of time. I can't hate the blue devils more than I already do but I'll try.

Trust me, you guys will still come out on top with this one as always, unless it completely falls apart and than I am sure Boston will get another ho hum 10" blizzard. Besides aren't you guys already above climo for the season, it seems JI must be over 20" by now.

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Trust me, you guys will still come out on top with this one as always, unless it completely falls apart and than I am sure Boston will get another ho hum 10" blizzard. Besides aren't you guys already above climo for the season, it seems JI must be over 20" by now.

I'm about 20mi NE of Leesburg and am T about 75% of climo here. Snowfall so far is about 2" more than last year here. I think points 15 to 20 miles north of MBY are a bit closer to climo.
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Trust me, you guys will still come out on top with this one as always, unless it completely falls apart and than I am sure Boston will get another ho hum 10" blizzard. Besides aren't you guys already above climo for the season, it seems JI must be over 20" by now.

I am at climo. Im happy with that and I will probably scrape an inch or 2 between this weekend and next weeks event. I'll root for DC and you guys down that way. Dont put all your eggs in the Euro basket is my advice. Likely too robust on that first wave for midweek. 

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Once we get past whatever happens wednesday we still aren't done. Pieces are moving so fast that things can sneak up anytime we have an airmass that supports frozen. The gefs does not agree with the op trough d10.

EPS has precip here on the means from d8-10 but with massive spread. All we can do is watch short leads and see if a vort can get under us. We actually have to root against big wound up storms. Time will tell.

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it would be nice that when we have marginal events like what the Euro is depicting for next week that somebody do a play by play. that way we can all get an idea of what the model is showing as opposed to just conclusions made by some on this board. don't get me wrong I appreciate the conclusions but I also would like to know what the model depicted.

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it would be nice that when we have marginal events like what the Euro is depicting for next week that somebody do a play by play. that way we can all get an idea of what the model is showing as opposed to just conclusions made by some on this board. don't get me wrong I appreciate the conclusions but I also would like to know what the model depicted.

 

ECMWF gives BWI 0.76" of precipitation.  Event begins Wednesday afternoon and ends Thursday morning.  850 low is weak but passes to our east.  850 hPa temperatures warm during event but are still slightly below 0C when event ends.  Surface temperatures are in low 30s for bulk of event but warm to upper 30sThursday afternoon. 1000-500 thickness are 541 or below throughout the event.

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