JMU2004 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 winter cancel? Just waiting for the Ji stamp of approval. Looks warm through late Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 winter cancel? Just waiting for the Ji stamp of approval. Looks warm through late Feb I don't know that we are completely out of the game yet. CMC/Euro ensembles have had a consistently decent look for snow in central VA. If this thing continues to trend SE we'll probably stay in the precip shield but the temps will become more of an issue with the weaker low. I sort of see where this is all going but I certainly don't think it's time to put up the white flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I figure it has to look more than okay if NC peeps are talking about lots of ice and 6"+ snows in I-85 area and even ice into SC... so someone is playing around it doesn't really matter what it looks like if it's wrong.. which is the point. they are still interested because it still looks decent but if it does what it did this run the next two runs it won't. and it has a good chance of doing so given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's drier but not much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it doesn't really matter what it looks like if it's wrong.. which is the point. they are still interested because it still looks decent but if it does what it did this run the next two runs it won't. and it has a good chance of doing so given the pattern. While that could be true, an honest assessment of what it says right now with the caveat of "hey its gonna get worse" is better than warmer and drier... but thats just IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 While that could be true, an honest assessment of what it says right now with the caveat of "hey its gonna get worse" is better than warmer and drier... but thats just IMHO you've been here a long time. if you want to play games that's fine but i don't think matt or anyone else is intentionally trolling you or anything. it could also get better.. who knows. the odds are stacked against it. we all watch the models enough we should learn as we go.. not doing so is a total waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Charlotte will end the year with more snow than dc, guarantee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The Carolina's win. They get the cold overrunning that we needed. Plus we lost all the weekend snow chances, we suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Messy setup. Maybe the high can hold on long enough for you guys, but when I see it slipping east like that its a turnoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 you've been here a long time. if you want to play games that's fine but i don't think matt or anyone else is intentionally trolling you or anything. it could also get better.. who knows. the odds are stacked against it. we all watch the models enough we should learn as we go.. not doing so is a total waste of time. I am not saying he is.... I dont see the QPF... I am just confused when Matt says warmer and drier and I see mets in the SE thread taking about major ice and heavy snows for GA/SC/NC... thats all. If its warmer and drier, then how are they getting so much snow and ice? Does the CAD magically disappear by the time it gets up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro is still 6 for me. Ggem has some snow.....it's not horrible but I went from 12-6 in one full day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am not saying he is.... I dont see the QPF... I am just confused when Matt says warmer and drier and I see mets in the SE thread taking about major ice and heavy snows for GA/SC/NC... thats all. If its warmer and drier, then how are they getting so much snow and ice? Does the CAD magically disappear by the time it gets up here? They score big from first overrunning system. We get nothing from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 They score big from first overrunning system. We get nothing from that That makes sense then. Thank you Ji for explaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 00z UKIE 120-144 looks pretty good as well with low track... too bad we cant see precip or temps out that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Get a load of this. What the hell is he saying here? ignore him, he's wrong 99% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro skewt for BWI is probably rain or rain/sn mix by 132 with temps at 900 mb and down around 1-2C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 They score big from first overrunning system. We get nothing from that That was supposed to be ours. They stole it. I hope the wizards pound the bobcats into the sand for the rest of time. I can't hate the blue devils more than I already do but I'll try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That was supposed to be ours. They stole it. I hope the wizards pound the bobcats into the sand for the rest of time. I can't hate the blue devils more than I already do but I'll try. Trust me, you guys will still come out on top with this one as always, unless it completely falls apart and than I am sure Boston will get another ho hum 10" blizzard. Besides aren't you guys already above climo for the season, it seems JI must be over 20" by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Trust me, you guys will still come out on top with this one as always, unless it completely falls apart and than I am sure Boston will get another ho hum 10" blizzard. Besides aren't you guys already above climo for the season, it seems JI must be over 20" by now.I'm about 20mi NE of Leesburg and am T about 75% of climo here. Snowfall so far is about 2" more than last year here. I think points 15 to 20 miles north of MBY are a bit closer to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Trust me, you guys will still come out on top with this one as always, unless it completely falls apart and than I am sure Boston will get another ho hum 10" blizzard. Besides aren't you guys already above climo for the season, it seems JI must be over 20" by now. I am at climo. Im happy with that and I will probably scrape an inch or 2 between this weekend and next weeks event. I'll root for DC and you guys down that way. Dont put all your eggs in the Euro basket is my advice. Likely too robust on that first wave for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Some gefs members show PD.03 I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Packbacker, dca and much of the beltways are nowhere near climo. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Once we get past whatever happens wednesday we still aren't done. Pieces are moving so fast that things can sneak up anytime we have an airmass that supports frozen. The gefs does not agree with the op trough d10. EPS has precip here on the means from d8-10 but with massive spread. All we can do is watch short leads and see if a vort can get under us. We actually have to root against big wound up storms. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it would be nice that when we have marginal events like what the Euro is depicting for next week that somebody do a play by play. that way we can all get an idea of what the model is showing as opposed to just conclusions made by some on this board. don't get me wrong I appreciate the conclusions but I also would like to know what the model depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Next weekend looks more interesting than midweek...imo. Just need the northern vort to dig a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Next weekend looks more interesting than midweek...imo. Just need the northern vort to dig a little further south. #thingswesayeveryweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it would be nice that when we have marginal events like what the Euro is depicting for next week that somebody do a play by play. that way we can all get an idea of what the model is showing as opposed to just conclusions made by some on this board. don't get me wrong I appreciate the conclusions but I also would like to know what the model depicted. ECMWF gives BWI 0.76" of precipitation. Event begins Wednesday afternoon and ends Thursday morning. 850 low is weak but passes to our east. 850 hPa temperatures warm during event but are still slightly below 0C when event ends. Surface temperatures are in low 30s for bulk of event but warm to upper 30sThursday afternoon. 1000-500 thickness are 541 or below throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Next weekend looks more interesting than midweek...imo. Just need the northern vort to dig a little further south. How many vorts have dug enough this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How many vorts have dug enough this year? there is always something wrong with every event, as to why we don't get snow. even models begin wrong!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How many vorts have dug enough this year? Half? We've had some good passes this year. Spacing is really tight for the foreseable future. It's easy for a weak vort to get under us. Amped ones will be problematic because the Atlantic remains hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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