Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 thanks...no precip after 126 hours Yea, just caught up. Nice run. 108-120 definitely shows upside potential. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nice analysis gentlemen....thank -you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 our March 1 event is Amarillo to MSY to Daytona Beach...not the greatest track....it's still not a huge miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 our March 1 event is Amarillo to MSY to Daytona Beach...not the greatest track....it's still not a huge miss considering the storm didn't exist last night I'd say nothing is resolved. Just a big quagmire of possibilities. Overall, it's a pretty big run over run change with heights too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 our March 1 event is Amarillo to MSY to Daytona Beach...not the greatest track....it's still not a huge miss Whatever it is please make sure if it doen't hit us it digs to Orlando, so at least Ji gets something from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 considering the storm didn't exist last night I'd say nothing is resolved. Just a big quagmire of possibilities. Overall, it's a pretty big run over run change with heights too. Higher or lower?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Higher or lower?. Last night the vort was weaker than the skins secondary with flat ridging behind it. Now the vort is kinda juiced with some amp on the back. Pretty nasty wall of confluence above us though. We need a strong amped up vort no matter what. That part isn't too much too ask. If the confluence above ends up with a suppressed solution then it is what it is. I'd prefer that over no storm at all to even watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro is close with march 1st. All thats.missing is a midstream disturbance bridge the gap between the nrn and southern streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Last night the vort was weaker than the skins secondary with flat ridging behind it. Now the vort is kinda juiced with some amp on the back. Pretty nasty wall of confluence above us though. We need a strong amped up vort no matter what. That part isn't too much too ask. If the confluence above ends up with a suppressed solution then it is what it is. I'd prefer that over no storm at all to even watch. it's pretty rare for the Euro to have a decent event like it showed for 3 or 4 runs and then disappear since those runs were based on troughs out in the PAC reaching the west coast then traversing east I would expect a storm to be there come next weekend, but exactly where and whether it does anything to us is obviously a different, albeit the most important, question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 light rates mainly during the day, sounds good. (midweek) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 light rates mainly during the day, sounds good. (midweek) looks to end Wednesday by 10 or 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 light rates mainly during the day, sounds good. (midweek) On the euro looks mostly like a 1am - 10am event...which would be good timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 looks to end Wednesday by 10 or 11am yeah, i was off on time a bit. oops. still.. eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 light rates mainly during the day, sounds good. (midweek) It's in the 20's. I'll take my chances. I'm sure mos says it's in the 50's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Cutter isn't looking cuttery anymore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It's in the 20's. I'll take my chances. I'm sure mos says it's in the 50's though. i should at least have my facts right before jumping into the snow hound pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 i should at least have my facts right before jumping into the snow hound pool. I should too. Temps around 30. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Ian, it looks like your "storm after the storm" thinking may verify. EURO looks good on March 3rd. I know it'll change a thousand times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Ian, it looks like your "storm after the storm" thinking may verify. EURO looks good on March 3rd. I know it'll change a thousand times... Verbatim is would prob be a miller B but it's silly to even discuss. H5 was a vast improvement over last night's disaster. It's all about Wed for now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Ian, it looks like your "storm after the storm" thinking may verify. EURO looks good on March 3rd. I know it'll change a thousand times... Yeah, it looks decent enough.. of course it is day 10. Tho, the third coastal in the cycle can be the money one. Still some issues.. not sure the handling of the weekend low is right either. It sorta splits one low off into the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Last night the vort was weaker than the skins secondary with flat ridging behind it. Now the vort is kinda juiced with some amp on the back. Pretty nasty wall of confluence above us though. We need a strong amped up vort no matter what. That part isn't too much too ask. If the confluence above ends up with a suppressed solution then it is what it is. I'd prefer that over no storm at all to even watch. Thanks for the detailed explanation Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Its been amazing how the The 2 main models have performed this winter. The GFS locks on to a northern stream event and wont let go. The Euro has contol of the southern stream. Seems they have both been consistent in that at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 euro doing what it does best. Nice graceful shift. Don't think we're done yet either... LOL. Like it did on Jan 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 DC's average low hits 33 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 DC's average low hits 33 on Monday. I thought their average low in January was 40 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 DC's average low hits 33 on Monday. So we have two more days to get some frozen precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro ens support the op for Wed pretty nicely. They look like a smoothed out version. Good sign of less spread. About .25 on the means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On the euro looks mostly like a 1am - 10am event...which would be good timing... Another sleep storm. Wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro ensembles still a bit suppressed and east for the march 1st storm but they look a heck of a lot better than the op. Good precip signal up the coast but we're on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 LOL. Like it did on Jan 2? It came back to reality from its big storm, but then was the 1st to go bullish after all the models went to a crappy solution...all around it was a poor performance by all the models inside 4 days when they should be better The models were WAY better for 1/21 once the Euro caught on 36 hours out...It was an abysmal performance for the euro from 2 days out ...from 36 hours in, the models were locked and loaded though the GFS was kind of clueless right at the end So the Euro won all 3 2014 events from inside 36 hours...but the GFS was better outside 48 hours on both 1/2 and 1/21 So not sure we can cull anything from it all except the GFS isn't really to be trusted inside 48 hours if the Euro/Canadian/Ukmet/Nam agree... Outside 48 hours, I think we just blend and remain non-committal... 2/13 was the ONLY event this year where a majority of models were good wire to wire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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