SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 What are people's thoughts about the 2/26 event? It looks like it would be at least a period of all snow on the GFS and then maybe the surface warming. 0.25+ total. Hoping we can sneak a 1-3er in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I know it's crappy point and click weather forecasting from Weather Underground, but it has snow in the forecast already. I like the way next week is shaping up. Tuesday Periods of light snow. High near 40F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy skies during the evening will give way to cloudy skies overnight. Low 26F. Winds light and variable. Wednesday Snow during the morning will taper off to light snow during the afternoon. High 37F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 What are people's thoughts about the 2/26 event? It looks like it would be at least a period of all snow on the GFS and then maybe the surface warming. 0.25+ total. Hoping we can sneak a 1-3er in.It's been a nice gradual trend towards an ok event. GFS has been more excited but the euro took a nice step last night. Euro ens members took a nice step as well. Looks like 1-3/2-4 is in the cards if the surface supports it. There's still a possibility that the wave gets more organized and the coastal gets going better. It's a fast mover either way so it will depend on rates. I've liked the period for quite a few days now. We'll see how trends go this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 HM, any thoughts on the MJO going to phase 8? Seems like reliable ens guidance is all pointing that way in a week or so. Ens guidance is also converging on west coast ridging re-emerging around march 4-5th or so. It's in interesting look if split flow sets up. I can envision st moisture undercutting and joining the party along the gulf coast. It's way out in lala but the look is there nonetheless. Our window keeps looking like it has legs as days pass. I'm all in for the storm following the mid week event, following the no storm on March 1, following the quasi cutter. The period March 7-10 is going to rock-----the set-up is potentially better than next weekend. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS seems to want us to wake up to an 1" tuesday morning. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS seems to want us to wake up to an 1" tuesday morning. lol Maybe closer to 2" for many....the timing is actually idea,....4am - 9am event....we don't really warm at the surface until after it shuts off...it would be a snow event...a nice stats padder...probably melt a lot in the city by mid afternoon as we are around 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Maybe closer to 2" for many....the timing is actually idea,....4am - 9am event....we don't really warm at the surface until after it shuts off...it would be a snow event...a nice stats padder...probably melt a lot in the city by mid afternoon as we are around 40 Wed is starting to really look nice too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS seems to want us to wake up to an 1" tuesday morning. lol Maybe closer to 2" for many....the timing is actually idea,....4am - 9am event....we don't really warm at the surface until after it shuts off...it would be a snow event...a nice stats padder...probably melt a lot in the city by mid afternoon as we are around 40 then part 2 wednesday morning also with a 4am start...which we know has been showing up for a while now...colder and juicier...maybe 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The Wednesday event is looking nice on the GFS, good amount of precip through 126 and no surface torchage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 then part 2 wednesday morning also with a 4am start...which we know has been showing up for a while now...colder and juicier...maybe 3"+ The coastal influence keeps looking better every day. I've really like it for a 1-3/2-4 but if things keep getting more organized we could end up low end warning criteria... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The Wednesday event is looking nice on the GFS, good amount of precip through 126 and no surface torchage. basicallly a 4" event for me and you...an 8-9 hour event..with arctic air swooping in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Midweek looking like an are wide 3-6 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The coastal influence keeps looking better every day. I've really like it for a 1-3/2-4 but if things keep getting more organized we could end up low end warning criteria... yeah..a little too far away...I'll get more interested Sunday/Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 yeah..a little too far away...I'll get more interested Sunday/Monday... I'll be very interested by this afternoon if the EURO gets fully on board. Can anyone remind me how the EURO/GFS did with the Late January event on the arctic front? I was away that weekend skiing. Which model caught it first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 lol...GFS has temperature at DCA of 4, Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The coastal influence keeps looking better every day. I've really like it for a 1-3/2-4 but if things keep getting more organized we could end up low end warning criteria... Ok don't kill me, but I am on my lunch break and I'm lazy, haha. How expansive is the precip? Does it get up over the M/D line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Ok don't kill me, but I am on my lunch break and I'm lazy, haha. How expansive is the precip? Does it get up over the M/D line? lol...what do you think?...IT is an I-95 SECS...and even if it didn't, do you really think it can snow more than 1" in DC, and York PA not get at least 12-18"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 yeah..a little too far away...I'll get more interested Sunday/Monday... Agreed. GFS has been steadfast in the general evolution. It's not hard to get an over performer this time of year with an arctic boundary overhead. Euro stepped in nicely last night. I thinks odds are in our favor here. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 verbatim, GFS is 2" (.22") Tuesday morning and 3.5" (.36") Wednesday morning at BWI (using 10:1 ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I wonder if the GFS's 0 degrees at DCA FRiday morning will come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 verbatim, GFS is 2" (.22") Tuesday morning and 3.5" (.36") Wednesday morning at BWI (using 10:1 ratios) And it's ridiculously cold thurs-fri for late feb. Snow might survive sun angle. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I wonder if the GFS's 0 degrees at DCA FRiday morning will come to fruition At least the temps are from caa and radiational. I could see single digits @ dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 At least the temps are from caa and radiational. I could see single digits @ dca. but what about the children... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 At least the temps are from caa and radiational. I could see single digits @ dca. hopefully it happens in February since DC has only hit single digits in March twice in 142 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 frankly, I haven't even been paying much attention to next week, figuring next weekend would be better oh well, that's the way this winter has gone...disregard computer generated warm ups and snow storms in the medium and long range and focus on the short to medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Finally lol I see what you did there, that's why I lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 lol...what do you think?...IT is an I-95 SECS...and even if it didn't, do you really think it can snow more than 1" in DC, and York PA not get at least 12-18"? Ha ha ha ha. Just haven't looked at maps yet, but we have been blessed this winter in York. Seems like these storms eventually trend how we want them to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yeah, I'm late to the party...GFS pretty respectable Wednesday and like Bob said, it's been getting better and better. I wish the Euro was interested....what are the chances the GFS leads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'll be very interested by this afternoon if the EURO gets fully on board. Can anyone remind me how the EURO/GFS did with the Late January event on the arctic front? I was away that weekend skiing. Which model caught it first? The GFS actually did a bit better than the Euro on that event in the D4-6 time frame...Euro was pretty slow in coming around to the idea of that system amplifying on the arctic boundary. Doesn't mean it will this time around, but the Euro does seem to have struggled at times this year with the fast flow northern stream setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The GFS actually did a bit better than the Euro on that event in the D4-6 time frame...Euro was pretty slow in coming around to the idea of that system amplifying on the arctic boundary. Doesn't mean it will this around, but the Euro does seem to have struggled at times this year with the fast flow northern stream setups. This is encouraging and believable....People need to remember this isn't the same set up as 2/13 where the GFS floundered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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