WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 "I don't even want anymore. You guys can have it!" "I really hope it doesn't snow. I'm over it, and my kid has soccer tryouts" "Why can't it be 70 and sunny already?" "I'm not expecting more than a dusting anyway" 8 hours later "Holy Crap. I have +SN and can barely see across the street. I thought this would miss me to the south. I totally didn't expect this 2"/hr band to park itself over me. When is the last time that happened?" "8.25" total. 143" on season" "Here are some deck pics. One of my hand holding a ruler that shows I got 8"+. One is a time lapse of my deck showing I got 3" in 75 minutes during the peak. Here is one of my dog rolling around in the snow. Here is one of my adorable smiling kid making a snowman" LOL, 143" on the season!!! Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Solid A Prob not your best, but top 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 FWIW, zwyts already mentioned 1993...but two other analogs that keep popping up are March 1980 and 1984...not sure if they were showing on the Euro ensembles, but the GEFS and GGEM ensembles have been showing those two years too which of course were favorable for March snow events in the Mid-Atlantic. 1980 was actually better just tot he south of DC, it was almost "too good". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I have 2-3 weeks IMBY which is fine....it isn't really desperation time...far from it.....I doubt we have a storm like last year where it is 94 degrees in Montreal, low 50s here on the precipice of the event and we are expecting the storm to create its own cold airI don't ever want to reread my posts from march last year slicing and dicing soundings and picking apart every single model run every 6 seconds. I was deluded. The writing was so clearly on the wall that temps were a losing battle. I won't make that mistake again. No cold air within 200 miles to our north and I really believed it would work out in the most difficult winter climo month. It embarrasses me thinking about it. Temp101 is equally if not more important than Vort101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Wow...zywts I hope your kidding with that comment because if not ....well I'll assume the former but since you constantly rip on Westminster every single day ..maybe not. I don't even live in Westminster and I get tired of hearing this daily from you as I'm sure others do to. So please stop this . You can't be serious?! I get tired of snow "just" to my north. I think Matt sums it up perfectly! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 You can't be serious?! I get tired of snow "just" to my north. I think Matt sums it up perfectly! Lol It's some funny azz S. No two ways around it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I don't ever want to reread my posts from march last year slicing and dicing soundings and picking apart every single model run every 6 seconds. I was deluded. The writing was so clearly on the wall that temps were a losing battle. I won't make that mistake again. No cold air within 200 miles to our north and I really believed it would work out in the most difficult winter climo month. It embarrasses me thinking about it. Temp101 is equally if not more important than Vort101 It is a bit easier to see with the benefit of hindsight. The ingredients were there to overcome some pretty marginal boundary layer conditions. I believe if we go back to that bust thread on the storm, that there were additional factors then just "it was too warm". Granted, the simplistic explanation is just that, it ended up a shade too warm, but the insane omega that was modeled didn't seem to materialize as advertised along with the 900-950mb temps being just a pinch warmer than some of the guidance which was probably somewhat related to the omega. Areas around RIC got thumped pretty hard that morning with heavy snow IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It is a bit easier to see with the benefit of hindsight. The ingredients were there to overcome some pretty marginal boundary layer conditions. I believe if we go back to that bust thread on the storm, that there were additional factors then just "it was too warm". Granted, the simplistic explanation is just that, it ended up a shade too warm, but the insane omega that was modeled didn't seem to materialize as advertised along with the 900-950mb temps being just a pinch warmer than some of the guidance which was probably somewhat related to the omega. Areas around RIC got thumped pretty hard that morning with heavy snow IIRC.Very true. The radar loop of the storm is a stomach turner. I stayed up till 3am enjoying the front end and radar looked great. Grabbed 3 hours of sleep and woke up and went "wut?". The embarrassing part for me is that I STILL believed I was in the game at 9am....As sickening as the loop was it was a great learning experience. As things got cranking near Ric it was like the power plug was pulled from the front end stuff. Then the se jog of the lp was a death knell. The euro was showing that jog 24-48 hours out but most of us didn't buy it. Then it all became a race of rate vs temps through the day. It was a really really bad experience. The event really highlighted how important it is during late climo that all cylinders needed to hit or feelings would get hurt. My feelings got hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 First third of March can be really cold if some snow cover and mostly cloudy because of a minor snow event or two. After 10th that it's just always 50 the day after the storm with a September sun and no fun. Day after March 93 was remarkable exception with daytime temps in mid 20's next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Very true. The radar loop of the storm is a stomach turner. I stayed up till 3am enjoying the front end and radar looked great. Grabbed 3 hours of sleep and woke up and went "wut?". The embarrassing part for me is that I STILL believed I was in the game at 9am.... As sickening as the loop was it was a great learning experience. As things got cranking near Ric it was like the power plug was pulled from the front end stuff. Then the se jog of the lp was a death knell. The euro was showing that jog 24-48 hours out but most of us didn't buy it. Then it all became a race of rate vs temps through the day. It was a really really bad experience. The event really highlighted how important it is during late climo that all cylinders needed to hit or feelings would get hurt. My feelings got hurt. The event obviously fooled everyone...it was one thing not to believe the huge amounts that some outlets (including the NWS) were putting out. However, I recall even the skeptical forecasts were still pretty significant in the 3-6/4-8 range for DC metro. So even the skeptical forecasts were still too bullish. It definitely is an important reminder that so many things have to go right in order to produce a significant accumulating snowfall down at lower elevation there where not all ingredients are in place right before the event (in this case it was a good cold high to the north missing) at that time of the year. It went right near RIC, but not in DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 "I don't even want anymore. You guys can have it!" "I really hope it doesn't snow. I'm over it, and my kid has soccer tryouts" "Why can't it be 70 and sunny already?" "I'm not expecting more than a dusting anyway" 8 hours later "Holy Crap. I have +SN and can barely see across the street. I thought this would miss me to the south. I totally didn't expect this 2"/hr band to park itself over me. When is the last time that happened?" "8.25" total. 143" on season" "Here are some deck pics. One of my hand holding a ruler that shows I got 8"+. One is a time lapse of my deck showing I got 3" in 75 minutes during the peak. Here is one of my dog rolling around in the snow. Here is one of my adorable smiling kid making a snowman" might be your best post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The event obviously fooled everyone...it was one thing not to believe the huge amounts that some outlets (including the NWS) were putting out. However, I recall even the skeptical forecasts were still pretty significant in the 3-6/4-8 range for DC metro. So even the skeptical forecasts were still too bullish. It definitely is an important reminder that so many things have to go right in order to produce a significant accumulating snowfall down at lower elevation there where not all ingredients are in place right before the event (in this case it was a good cold high to the north missing) at that time of the year. It went right near RIC, but not in DCA. We would have hit the low end forecasts overnight if the shield didn't go kaput. I think overall it was an excessive example of why storms bust. Instead of one thing going wrong...everything went wrong. If we were aob freezing during the day we would have done ok too but it was pretty well modeled that the daytime would be at least slightly above freezing. At the very least it helps weenies like me to be much more realistic. Even when models show a big hit close in during late climo if there is a kink in the armor its best to absolutely never overlook or downplay it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I just thought this is why there is a banter thread . I visit this site daily to share in the passion for weather with others and to take in all the great analysis by many on here but this year the banter seems overwhelming for some reason. This is all. relax...it is all in good fun.....It is hot out and in between model runs with nothing until next week.....so there is some banter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 We would have hit the low end forecasts overnight if the shield didn't go kaput. I think overall it was an excessive example of why storms bust. Instead of one thing going wrong...everything went wrong. If we were aob freezing during the day we would have done ok too but it was pretty well modeled that the daytime would be at least slightly above freezing. At the very least it helps weenies like me to be much more realistic. Even when models show a big hit close in during late climo if there is a kink in the armor its best to absolutely never overlook or downplay it. If there is one take-home point in discussing that storm as it relates to the upcoming pattern, there isn't going to be a problem of cold from the source region. It probably couldn't be any different with basically the coldest air in the northern hemisphere in southern/southeastern Canada. Synoptically, the Feb 28-Mar 1 setup looks the most brilliant with like a -2 sigma airmass to the north...however, the lead time on that is still in obscene range. There's potential before that too...most notably middle of next week, though the setup isn't quite as great but still some decent cold to work with. So while ptype is always worry late in the season, the source region really cannot be much better this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 If there is one take-home point in discussing that storm as it relates to the upcoming pattern, there isn't going to be a problem of cold from the source region. It probably couldn't be any different with basically the coldest air in the northern hemisphere in southern/southeastern Canada. Synoptically, the Feb 28-Mar 1 setup looks the most brilliant with like a -2 sigma airmass to the north...however, the lead time on that is still in obscene range. There's potential before that too...most notably middle of next week, though the setup isn't quite as great but still some decent cold to work with. So while ptype is always worry late in the season, the source region really cannot be much better this time. Absolutely. And it looks to have legs too. Not just a one and done window. I'm pretty stoked on the next 2 weeks for having more than one op. Because I'm such an addicted weenie...when I brought up concerns about late snow tonight I was looking at the march 10-20th potential. Lol. Euro weeklies had me all puppy eyed. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 With regards to best personal winters.... 09-10 is the clear winner, imo. 95-96 (The January blizzard puts this one at #2 for me despite its seasonal total being lower than my #3 and 4) 02-03 (was in State College....84") 03-04 (was in State College....71") 13-14 Was born in 80, so I don't remember anything about 82-83 or 86-87. I suspect they could challenge this year based solely on snowfall....at least near the cities. As long as I live in this area, I'll likely never see consecutive winters like 02-03/03-04. It was like constant snow pack late December thru early March both seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Mid week is still trending nicely. Gfs keeps getting better. Gefs keeps throwing out some nice solutions. Euro and ens are not as enthused but the period probably deserves more focus than next weekend for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 wow, 90% prob of below normal temp in northern plains, can't recall the last time I saw a 90% on the 6 to 10 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Mid week is still trending nicely. Gfs keeps getting better. Gefs keeps throwing out some nice solutions. Euro and ens are not as enthused but the period probably deserves more focus than next weekend for now GFS has a while to go before we get to anything good. Midweek has time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS has a while to go before we get to anything good. Midweek has time though. It's a pop up pattern. I like it. Euro ens and gfs say 1-2 and there is plenty of upside. Nothing crazy because amplification will be near impossible but who wouldn't be happy with 2-4? I'm on on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The event obviously fooled everyone...it was one thing not to believe the huge amounts that some outlets (including the NWS) were putting out. However, I recall even the skeptical forecasts were still pretty significant in the 3-6/4-8 range for DC metro. So even the skeptical forecasts were still too bullish. It definitely is an important reminder that so many things have to go right in order to produce a significant accumulating snowfall down at lower elevation there where not all ingredients are in place right before the event (in this case it was a good cold high to the north missing) at that time of the year. It went right near RIC, but not in DCA. That event was one where we were a hair away form widespread 12-18 amounts. Basically, you either went all in or all out. I still am in the camp that it was a QPF bust, not temp bust. Temps were above freezing as advertised during the day. We had seen dynamics and rates overcome temps on Jan 26th 2011, but the dynamics and rates advertised on the models did not happen. I remember going to bed at midnight, seeing my falling thermometer and the sick radar as well as light snow and thinking, man, when I wake up at 6 AM we'll have 4-6 inches on the ground and it will be ripping. I woke up, and had a dusting, thought huh? Everyone was sitting around convincing each other that everything was going according to plan, even though it was clearly a bust once the WAA shield fell apart. With spotty snowcover and only periods of moderate snow instead of constant heavy snow the snow never managed to accumulate more than two inches. I don't recall ever switching to rain though. Worst event in memory. beats out Boxing Day because we all knew Boxing Day would screw us once we saw the radar down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 How we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It's a pop up pattern. I like it. Euro ens and gfs say 1-2 and there is plenty of upside. Nothing crazy because amplification will be near impossible but who wouldn't be happy with 2-4? I'm on on that. Oh, I'd be more than happy with 1 to 2 or 2 to 4. As for the potential after that, I'd be glad to have the Euro have it on the map for the next 8 runs...don't care if it's not a perfect hit...actually, I'd rather it not be a perfect hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 How we lookin? Gfs is a complete disaster for next weekend. I'd say we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Oh, I'd be more than happy with 1 to 2 or 2 to 4. As for the potential after that, I'd be glad to have the Euro have it on the map for the next 8 runs...don't care if it's not a perfect hit...actually, I'd rather it not be a perfect hit. I'm pretty sure we get a north trend on the storm next weekend. 1053 high in the Midwest? How many times has the euro shown that this winter? How many of those have there been? I'm not sure we score off that storm, I would favor Virginia/North Carolina border based on analogs and gut. We might get at least grazed though, especially if the euro is right about the size of that beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Gfs is a complete disaster for next weekend. I'd say we're good. It was a disaster for last Wednesday/Thursday until we had 6 inches of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It was a disaster for last Wednesday/Thursday until we had 6 inches of snow on the ground. I think that's his point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Oh, I'd be more than happy with 1 to 2 or 2 to 4. As for the potential after that, I'd be glad to have the Euro have it on the map for the next 8 runs...don't care if it's not a perfect hit...actually, I'd rather it not be a perfect hit.The most interesting part of the midweek period is that the gfs/gefs/euro/eps all show a ns wave and ss moisture close together. Just not holding hands. But with a 4+ day lead things can change in our favor. I'm pretty sure we'll get snowTV. We could pad some totals as well...Eta: the basis for my optimism is the time of year and anomalous cold boundary. If this was jan it would be cold and flurries. Late Feb is a different animal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It has been a good winter. We can "chill" and take one event at a time. Everything from here on out is a bonus in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It has been a good winter. We can "chill" and take one event at a time. Everything from here on out is a bonus in my book. It's the rare winter where we are above average without being record-breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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