Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Only look at the euro weeklies if you like -ao/-nao/-epo.Brief relaxation near mid month and then back to amplified with blocking. Pretty cold look.Matt, are there any notable storms in dc past the 10th or so? I like the look but climo will be fighting hard. If the weeklies verify even I may whine a little about lack of aoa temps There are plenty of smaller events, but the bigger ones I can think of...I am sure there is some random event on May 23rd that gave Westminster 6-10" Off the top of my head... March 1942- 12" Paste job at end of month March 1956 - we caught the b-itch end of a K/U mid month March 18-21, 1958 - 5" City - 12-18"+ Burbs March 1960 - 2nd storm on 3/9-10 was 6"+ March 1964 - 6" end of month March 9, 1976 - Big for NW burbs March 8, 1984 - 1-3" city, big burbs - thundersnow March 29 1984 - Big burbs April 87 - Big far burbs March 1993 3/9/96 - 4"+ 3/9/99 - 8-10" 3/14/99 - Big burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Thanks matt. I knew the 80's and 90's had some but looking at the list doesn't give much comfort. Nothing in 14 years. The weeklies basically center the coldest air in the NH in central and eastern Canada and US. The signal appears strong on the h5 anon maps compared to what they usually look like d15-30. But expecting snow past the 10th is a pretty tall order to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Can we get a pattern like this in Late January/ Early February for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Can we get a pattern like this in Late January/ Early February for once? What? Did you miss 1/21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 . Hey Bob ...do you remember April 9th 1996. Northern tier counties of MD got up to 6" from that storm. So I'm always " in " for march potentials.I lived in the rockies from 92-99. The only storm I have any memory of during that period is Jan of 96 because my friends were all calling me going nuts. Even being in the mountains of CO I was still a little jealous of missing that one. I suppose if any year in the last 10+ has a chance at producing in mid-late march this one stands an ok chance from how it's looking right now. Hopefully we score 1-2 events before the upcoming pattern relaxes. Heck of a year for opportunities. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 . Hey Bob ...do you remember April 9th 1996. Northern tier counties of MD got up to 6" from that storm. So I'm always " in " for march potentials. we were under a warning in DC for 4-8" that never materialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Can we get a pattern like this in Late January/ Early February for once? What? Did you miss 1/21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 euro member output is slightly improved over last night. More members joined the light event party. DC is about 3.5" on the means. 3 monsters in there though. 2 are 20+. lol A little more support for a light event tues-wed. We don't know much more than we did yesterday though. And unfortunately that will prob continue through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 euro member output is slightly improved over last night. More members joined the light event party. DC is about 3.5" on the means. 3 monsters in there though. 2 are 20+. lol A little more support for a light event tues-wed. We don't know much more than we did yesterday though. And unfortunately that will prob continue through the weekend. Here are IAD's 3"+ storms after 3/8 going back to 1963 (there are a lot of T-2" events)....This should give a better indication of what the burbs can achieve...especially the far ones 3/30 - 4/1/1964 - 7.6" 3/12/68 - 4.5" 3/9/76 - 6.4" 3/13-14/80 - 3.4" 3/8/84 - 4.7" 3/29/84 - 4.2" 3/24-25/90 - 4.2" 4/6-7/90 - 3.8" 3/13-14/93 - 14.1" 3/7-8/96 - 4.1" 3/9/99 - 8.9" 3/14-15/99 - 5.4" 3/25/13 - 3.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I can recall every winter since 69-70 pretty clearly. There are 5 that stand way above the rest for me. 09-10, 95-96, 02-03, 77-78 (in W. Md.) and 93-94 for the crazy, anomalous cold and ice. I might rate this one # 6 now, and if March produces, it's an easy call. I realize in DC it hasn't measured up, but with one more good snowfall, I could record a 50"+ season. I am already over 50 days with an inch or more of snow cover including the last 31. I finished 09-10 with 61 days. Even the best winters have warmer days, but usually no more than 15 days of 50+ highs. I think I have had 18 through today. Still pretty tolerable, and with three below-zero lows and a dozen other nights < 10, the cold delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Here are IAD's 3"+ storms after 3/8 going back to 1963 (there are a lot of T-2" events)....This should give a better indication of what the burbs can achieve...especially the far ones 3/30 - 4/1/1964 - 7.6" 3/12/68 - 4.5" 3/9/76 - 6.4" 3/13-14/80 - 3.4" 3/8/84 - 4.7" 3/29/84 - 4.2" 3/24-25/90 - 4.2" 4/6-7/90 - 3.8" 3/13-14/93 - 14.1" 3/7-8/96 - 4.1" 3/9/99 - 8.9" 3/14-15/99 - 5.4" 3/25/13 - 3.2" 3/29/84 was an amazing storm as you know-- 960's low on the Delmarva, extreme Carolinas tornado outbreak that was a somewhat lesser version of the TriState tornado, heavy snow thump inland. This snow accumulated on roads even in the close in suburbs. 4/6-7/90 actually managed to accumulate on roads overnight in the far out suburbs like Damascus, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I can recall every winter since 69-70 pretty clearly. There are 5 that stand way above the rest for me. 09-10, 95-96, 02-03, 77-78 (in W. Md.) and 93-94 for the crazy, anomalous cold and ice. I might rate this one # 6 now, and if March produces, it's an easy call. I realize in DC it hasn't measured up, but with one more good snowfall, I could record a 50"+ season. I am already over 50 days with an inch or more of snow cover including the last 31. I finished 09-10 with 61 days. Even the best winters have warmer days, but usually no more than 15 days of 50+ highs. I think I have had 18 through today. Still pretty tolerable, and with three below-zero lows and a dozen other nights < 10, the cold delivered. I'd rank it #4 since I moved back here in 94-95...obviously 1-3 are virtually untouchable...so 4 is pretty impressive... Qualitative ranking for me since 94-95 Top 10 09-10 (67.5") 95-96 (58") 02-03 (43.5") 13-14 (19" so far) 99-00 (17.0") 04-05 (17.0") 06-07 (13.5") 05-06 (17.5") 03-04 (14.0") 10-11 (12.5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Thanks matt. I knew the 80's and 90's had some but looking at the list doesn't give much comfort. Nothing in 14 years. The weeklies basically center the coldest air in the NH in central and eastern Canada and US. The signal appears strong on the h5 anon maps compared to what they usually look like d15-30. But expecting snow past the 10th is a pretty tall order to say the least . Hey Bob ...do you remember April 9th 1996. Northern tier counties of MD got up to 6" from that storm. So I'm always " in " for march potentials. Unless I missed it in the thread, nobody mentioned 3/17/2007. Close in burbs got 1-4 and far burbs got 4+ with some places up to 10-12. Very close to getting the cites involved. I remember 4/9/1996 very well. Big bust for many. Had wet snow all day long that amounted to nothing in Reisterstown. Had to get up this way to see anything of significance. There was another big bust in mid-March 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Congrats PHL. that pretty much goes w/o saying this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Unless I missed it in the thread, nobody mentioned 3/17/2007. Close in burbs got 1-4 and far burbs got 4+ with some places up to 10-12. Very close to getting the cites involved. I remember 4/9/1996 very well. Big bust for many. Had wet snow all day long that amounted to nothing in Reisterstown. Had to get up this way to see anything of significance. There was another big bust in mid-March 1991. Mid-March 1991 was a huge bust-- 5-10" predicted, WSW's issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Mid-March 1991 was a huge bust-- 5-10" predicted, WSW's issued. March is a month infamous for busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Mid-March 1991 was a huge bust-- 5-10" predicted, WSW's issued. Wasn't it supposed to be a long duration 2-day event. I think the first day we got only flurries then the next day got a period of rain/wet snow that became all snow but did not accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 March is a month infamous for busts. Even for areas that are far N&W so many factors have to come together for a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm going to go really conservative on any march event unless radar is sick, temps are below freezing and there is no WAA and there is complete model consensus. March 2001 and 2013 come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm going to go really conservative on any march event unless radar is sick, temps are below freezing and there is no WAA and there is complete model consensus. March 2001 and 2013 come to mind. We do get decent arctic outbraeks in March sometimes. Best to worry about Ptype in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 BTW, March 1993 is the #2 analog on Euro Ensembles for 11-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'd rank it #4 since I moved back here in 94-95...obviously 1-3 are virtually untouchable...so 4 is pretty impressive... Qualitative ranking for me since 94-95 Top 10 09-10 (67.5") 95-96 (58") 02-03 (43.5") 13-14 (19" so far) 99-00 (17.0") 04-05 (17.0") 06-07 (13.5") 05-06 (17.5") 03-04 (14.0") 10-11 (12.5") Thanks for ranking these seasons. What stands out to me is 03/04. That season slides up or down on the rankings depending on what happened for the 12/5-6 two-parter. I was fortunate enough in Potomac, MD (lower Montgomery County) to total around 8", which left two 6"+ storms for the season. There were two ice storms in February that followed the late January event. For my location, 03/04 would be ahead of 99/00 and 04/05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Thanks for ranking these seasons. What stands out to me is 03/04. That season slides up or down on the rankings depending on what happened for the 12/5-6 two-parter. I was fortunate enough in Potomac, MD (lower Montgomery County) to total around 8", which left two 6"+ storms for the season. There were two ice storms in February that followed the late January event. For my location, 03/04 would be ahead of 99/00 and 04/05. I got around 3-4" in Dupont total...I mostly watched Cantore at IAD and was pissed about my backyard January 25-27 is one of my favorite winter events of all time...which tempts me to rank it higher... a 48 hour winter delight....not sure if my favorite part was the onset and immediate stickage in frigid temps....took FOREVER to start...virga was killing us....or the flip back to sleet/snow 48 hours later which coincided with the end of rush hour and caused big traffic jams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Great stats in here guys. Appreciate it. One thing that appears to want to set march apart from the last 6+ is the pv refuses to leave our side of.the planet and coldest anoms in the nh are modeled basically perfect. Seeing all the burb events is encouraging. I would like to see dc proper put a good one in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Great stats in here guys. Appreciate it. One thing that appears to want to set march apart from the last 6+ is the pv refuses to leave our side of.the planet and coldest anoms in the nh are modeled basically perfect. Seeing all the burb events is encouraging. I would like to see dc proper put a good one in the books. I have 2-3 weeks IMBY which is fine....it isn't really desperation time...far from it.....I doubt we have a storm like last year where it is 94 degrees in Montreal, low 50s here on the precipice of the event and we are expecting the storm to create its own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 MAN'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 MAN'd sure..why not? 60 degrees at dusk....50 degrees when the precip starts...and 34 and ripping 2 hours later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 sure..why not? 60 degrees at dusk....50 degrees when the precip starts...and 34 and ripping 2 hours later... plenty of time to work out the details to get snow into Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 plenty of time to work out the details to get snow into Westminster "I don't even want anymore. You guys can have it!" "I really hope it doesn't snow. I'm over it, and my kid has soccer tryouts" "Why can't it be 70 and sunny already?" "I'm not expecting more than a dusting anyway" 8 hours later "Holy Crap. I have +SN and can barely see across the street. I thought this would miss me to the south. I totally didn't expect this 2"/hr band to park itself over me. When is the last time that happened?" "8.25" total. 143" on season" "Here are some deck pics. One of my hand holding a ruler that shows I got 8"+. One is a time lapse of my deck showing I got 3" in 75 minutes during the peak. Here is one of my dog rolling around in the snow. Here is one of my adorable smiling kid making a snowman" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Lol....you are one funny dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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