Ian Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Avg is a bit misleading this winter. I know that's how we tend to score things but it was pretty cold at times. Jan got screwed by us being mild during the coldest time of year mainly.. not like it was torchy or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It's all about perspective I guess. This winter was a "real winter" given recent history. Accum snow in each djf month. Plenty of teens and single digit lows. No real jan thaw. From a snow tracking perspective it's been the best since I joined eastern. If anything, this winter proves we can do winter in 3 consecutive months. Maybe 4 if march produces. Definitely not historic or anomalous but it will be remembered by many for some time and will be used as a comparison in future years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Avg is a bit misleading this winter. I know that's how we tend to score things but it was pretty cold at times. Jan got screwed by us being mild during the coldest time of year mainly.. not like it was torchy or something. Isn't this kinda like our dry vs. wet deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Avg is a bit misleading this winter. I know that's how we tend to score things but it was pretty cold at times. Jan got screwed by us being mild during the coldest time of year mainly.. not like it was torchy or something. after this weekend we will be at 41 above normal, 44 below normal days for the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Every day has been a blowtorch and warmer than Forecasted when we didn't have arctic air in place Yeah, 54 is a blowtorch. This isn't Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 after this weekend we will be at 41 above normal, 44 below normal days for the winter... I'm not really arguing with your point. It's more like we are used to big warmth so big cold is felt more perhaps. Plus the various counts of lows in the teens/single digits etc is meaningful if not when it comes to avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It's all about perspective I guess. This winter was a "real winter" given recent history. Accum snow in each djf month. Plenty of teens and single digit lows. No real jan thaw. From a snow tracking perspective it's been the best since I joined eastern. If anything, this winter proves we can do winter in 3 consecutive months. Maybe 4 if march produces. Definitely not historic or anomalous but it will be remembered by many for some time and will be used as a comparison in future years There was a pretty decent warm stretch in mid January...It was just so overwhelmed by the 2 cold shots...without that warm stretch it could have been an epic month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm not really arguing with your point. It's more like we are used to big warmth so big cold is felt more perhaps. Plus the various counts of lows in the teens/single digits etc is meaningful if not when it comes to avg. I was more impressed with January 2009...It had the big cold shot, and it the high only exceeded 45, 4 times...this january we were warmer than 45, 12 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro ensembles look pretty good for next weekend. Definitely not suppressed like the op. Looks like another threat on the heel d10+ Midweek looks like we can pull off a light event. Ensembles show 2 waves but I'm guessing that there's only 1 but with timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I was more impressed with January 2009...It had the big cold shot, and it the high only exceeded 45, 4 times...this january we were warmer than 45, 12 times 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Just finally unliked DT's Facebook page. Enough of the "OMG MEGA BLIZZARD EARLY MARCH CHECK OUT THIS MODEL OMG CRAZY IF YOU DISAGREE I WILL BAN YOU OMG BLIZZARD." He's like a petulant child with some weird complex going on. It's like take 8 year old me, give me an 80,000 person audience and a meterological degree and anger issues, and waaala! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 D11-15 has plenty of cold and remains active and wet. Over 1" liquid still showing on the means for the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro ensembles look pretty good for next weekend. Definitely not suppressed like the op. Looks like another threat on the heel d10+ Midweek looks like we can pull off a light event. Ensembles show 2 waves but I'm guessing that there's only 1 but with timing differences. wow...the signal for K/U the SQL...is huge...lots of members must have a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 More lows in the single digits this winter than the last seven combined. More lows below 15F this winter than the last five combined. Lowest low temp this winter (0.5F) was the lowest in the last 30 years, since Jan 1984. (however, the Jan '84 mean temp was 49 compared to 33 in Jan 2014) IMBY in central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 February will probably be normal by the end of the weekend and then finish a little below... hmmm, I think it comes in below at least -0.5 at 1.7 degrees for 19 days, DCA needs to get 32.3 degrees above just to pull even and I think it will come close, + or -, before the cold hits but then goes colder....just a hunch looking at Euro's temps today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 wow...the signal for K/U the SQL...is huge...lots of members must have a storm The whole ens run looks really good to me. I still think something "acceptable" happens mid week too. It's one of those things that trends. Nothing crazy or anything but maybe we can squeeze in a 1-2/2-4 kinda deal. Pretty wild look @ d10 with what appears to be another big storm brewing in the middle of the country. good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Just finally unliked DT's Facebook page. Enough of the "OMG MEGA BLIZZARD EARLY MARCH CHECK OUT THIS MODEL OMG CRAZY IF YOU DISAGREE I WILL BAN YOU OMG BLIZZARD." He's like a petulant child with some weird complex going on. It's like take 8 year old me, give me an 80,000 person audience and a meterological degree and anger issues, and waaala! He's been that way since day one.. if you can take it upon yourself to ignore the insecure statements he generally posts informative and sound meteorological analysis with a bit of personality thrown in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 AS of last night, the NAEFS ensembles were much more promising for the 3/4th than for the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro ensembles look pretty good for next weekend. Definitely not suppressed like the op. Looks like another threat on the heel d10+ Midweek looks like we can pull off a light event. Ensembles show 2 waves but I'm guessing that there's only 1 but with timing differences. Encouraging! Thanks Bob for the insights! NOW polish off the laser please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 AS of last night, the NAEFS ensembles were much more promising for the 3/4th than for the 1st. When I looked at the Euro ens mean, it's 500h and surface looked better after the 1st also. You time the wave different than the 12Z euro and you'll get a different solution in terms of suppression of the low and how far north it might track. The differences could be pretty big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Encouraging! Thanks Bob for the insights! NOW polish off the laser please! just relaying what the panels look like. There's really nothing to laser yet. Like Wes just said, time a wave different and everything changes. We have the parts to pull off a storm or 2 but they're moving around and the lead is long. Trends have been decent so far but we simply won't know if anything is real for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Just finally unliked DT's Facebook page. Enough of the "OMG MEGA BLIZZARD EARLY MARCH CHECK OUT THIS MODEL OMG CRAZY IF YOU DISAGREE I WILL BAN YOU OMG BLIZZARD." He's like a petulant child with some weird complex going on. It's like take 8 year old me, give me an 80,000 person audience and a meterological degree and anger issues, and waaala! Welcome to 10 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I can't wait to tell my grandkids about the winter of 2013-14 when I got 19" of snow and it was -0.7 Hey that's a rarity there...you are normally either -3 with 40"+ of snow, +5 with no snow...or -3 with no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 don't look at the 18Z NAM at 84 hrs....I said don't look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 don't look at the 18Z NAM at 84 hrs....I said don't look! Am I missing something?? EDIT: I think I found it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 don't look at the 18Z NAM at 84 hrs....I said don't look! Congrats PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I can't wait to tell my grandkids about the winter of 2013-14 when I got 19" of snow and it was -0.7 Maybe not worth telling your grandkids about. But would you take it again next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Maybe not worth telling your grandkids about. But would you take it again next year? Add one more event and i will take it every year for the rest of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Only look at the euro weeklies if you like -ao/-nao/-epo. Brief relaxation near mid month and then back to amplified with blocking. Pretty cold look. Matt, are there any notable storms in dc past the 10th or so? I like the look but climo will be fighting hard. If the weeklies verify even I may whine a little about lack of aoa temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Maybe not worth telling your grandkids about. But would you take it again next year? for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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