Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Get this to under 168 hours, it's stay up time. Get it to 144, vested time. 6 days is a crazy long time to be attached to a solution....But I think given the euro's performance on last storm, we are all going to be more invested than we should be from that range...I can't imagine the euro will keep showing a huge snowstorm for us for the next 18 runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Get this to under 168 hours, it's stay up time. Get it to 144, vested time. That's a good flow chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 6 days is a crazy long time to be attached to a solution....But I think given the euro's performance on last storm, we are all going to be more invested than we should be from that range...I can't imagine the euro will keep showing a huge snowstorm for us for the next 18 runs.... That was kinda my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like about 25% of the members have a massive snowstorm around the 1st. historically speaking, does that give it good odds of happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The only issue right now is a lack of a true retrograding NAO block. Last week also lacked that, in a classic sense, but still had the anomaly and archambault progression. So, this next threat depends on proper timing with PV displacement. Most guidance right now lifts PV back north that weekend, which is okay for now. A slower or faster trend would drastically change the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 historically speaking, does that give it good odds of happening? I don't know, historically I've only been looking at the Euro ensembles for one season so I have no idea how well correlated the ens probability has to the real probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like about 25% of the members have a massive snowstorm around the 1st. wow, i just compared individual output from 12z yesterday. Big change. 15 members showing 6+ and 8 showing 12+. I do need a disclaimer for these type of stats. I've seen it 2-3 times this year where the signal grows strong but then backs off and nothing verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I don't know, historically I've only been looking at the Euro ensembles for one season so I have no idea how well correlated the ens probability has to the real probability. They like to mess with our heads at long leads. I've seen 30-45 member solutions show good snow d7+ only to have it back way down. They do quite well @ d5 and closer though from what i've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 They like to mess with our heads at long leads. I've seen 30-45 member solutions show good snow d7+ only to have it back way down. They do quite well @ d5 and closer though from what i've seen. Yeah iirc the unicorn storm that never happened had really nice ensemble support at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 6 days is a crazy long time to be attached to a solution....But I think given the euro's performance on last storm, we are all going to be more invested than we should be from that range...I can't imagine the euro will keep showing a huge snowstorm for us for the next 18 runs.... Considering how the EURO correctly sniffed out the big storm (the last storm we just had -- even though the track moved around some, it had the general idea of what would occur), I am sure like you state that many of us are slowly already getting interested in this potential storm. This is the third EURO run in a row showing a huge hit for the area, yes? Remember the days when the EURO would sniff out big storms for us and then hold it forever and we could almost lock it in? I hope this is one of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Yeah iirc the unicorn storm that never happened had really nice ensemble support at this range. Exactly. That is a stark example. Taught me a lesson in getting too invested too early with the euro. HM's post is great and exactly right. PV placement drives the solution. We saw all kinds of changes with last week's storm even @ d4 and closer. I have a hunch that the Wed+/- timeframe will be gaining more attention shortly anyways. It will be a good diversion because imo the odds of next weekend producing at this point are less than 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Exactly. That is a stark example. Taught me a lesson in getting too invested too early with the euro. HM's post is great and exactly right. PV placement drives the solution. We saw all kinds of changes with last week's storm even @ d4 and closer. I have a hunch that the Wed+/- timeframe will be gaining more attention shortly anyways. It will be a good diversion because imo the odds of next weekend producing at this point are less than 50%. But the nice thing about the unicorn was even though it disappeared we did end up with a miller-A ish system soon after. So I take it as a positive that the EURO is showing this even if it disappears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Considering how the EURO correctly sniffed out the big storm (the last storm we just had -- even though the track moved around some, it had the general idea of what would occur), I am sure like you state that many of us are slowly already getting interested in this potential storm. This is the third EURO run in a row showing a huge hit for the area, yes? Remember the days when the EURO would sniff out big storms for us and then hold it forever and we could almost lock it in? I hope this is one of them... we should focus on midweek. The euro won't show a K/U for the next 8 days. I'm not sure it is great that we are seeing ideal solutions so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 But the nice thing about the unicorn was even though it disappeared we did end up with a miller-A ish system soon after. So I take it as a positive that the EURO is showing this even if it disappears. Looking at the ensembles d11-15 it appears our chances continue. Two more events on the means. It's going to be fast and furious in here for 2 weeks unless we lose the cold early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro always catches the big ones early like the foot plus that fell on my bday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looking at the ensembles d11-15 it appears our chances continue. Two more events on the means. It's going to be fast and furious in here for 2 weeks unless we lose the cold early.I was serious about the one after the one. That's the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm operating as if today is feb 1. Climo delayed except for sun angle. As long as we can get something before DST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 0z Euro Ens...top 5 for 6-10 and 11-15..caution 1.4" 0.0" 0.3" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" T 0.0" 0.0" T FWIW, some of the lesser analogs are better and the OP analogs are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 0z Euro Ens...top 5 for 6-10 and 11-15..caution 1.4" 0.0" 0.3" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" T 0.0" 0.0" T Looks like a DC classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I was serious about the one after the one. That's the one. Looks like enough time for 4 short waves to work into the flow from tues - the window closing. The first one could be a light event. maybe more or maybe nothing. After that the pattern matures and likely hold the best promise. you could easily be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 0z Euro Ens...top 5 for 6-10 and 11-15..caution 1.4" 0.0" 0.3" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" T 0.0" 0.0" T FWIW, some of the lesser analogs are better and the OP analogs are better Are you allowed to say which years/time frames those analogs cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 0z Euro Ens...top 5 for 6-10 and 11-15..caution 1.4" 0.0" 0.3" 0.0" 0.0" 0.0" T 0.0" 0.0" T FWIW, some of the lesser analogs are better and the OP analogs are better Almost as good as the 5 you posted yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 coating to 1/2" Thanks Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I picked this post from Zwyts only because it was the earliest post I could find confirming the earliest the Euro had our storm from last week, 2/13 the post is dated 2/5 and he was referencing the 12Z Euro run on that date, which means it was definitely showing the storm at 8 days and some earlier posts suggest it was on the model as early as 2/4 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42601-february-mediumlong-range-disco/?p=2739018 my point is, the 0Z run from last night had snow starting in the DC area just before Friday 2/27 18Z, which is around 8.5 days, the same time frame it picked up on last week's storm hence, it is not unreasonable to believe the threat is legit regardless of other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like a DC classic. I imagine once the periods are properly centered, the analogs will improve assuming the pattern stays good. Right now they capture meh patterns on either side...They are useful in conveying caution, though so far we have maximized potential in every good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I picked this post from Zwyts only because it was the earliest post I could find confirming the earliest the Euro had our storm from last week, 2/13 the post is dated 2/5 and he was referencing the 12Z Euro run on that date, which means it was definitely showing the storm at 8 days and some earlier posts suggest it was on the model as early as 2/4 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42601-february-mediumlong-range-disco/?p=2739018 my point is, the 0Z run from last night had snow starting in the DC area just before Friday 2/27 18Z, which is around 8.5 days, the same time frame it picked up on last week's storm hence, it is not unreasonable to believe the threat is legit regardless of other models problem is it is showing a solution that can't really improve...so we have nowhere to go but to either maintain an ideal solution or trend downward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 this is centered on our super HECS and you can see, particularly on the euro, why we are getting a big storm...Omega Block over Alaska, split flow, west based NAO ridge, confluence...PV has moved east, but isnt in ideal position, which is why a storm could conceivably miller B and/or take an inland track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Models may strengthen the omega block in North Atlantic too and combine with EPO block. But without a typical retrograding signal, a lot of things can change and take away our storm. I'd prefer a retrograding rex block over omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 problem is it is showing a solution that can't really improve...so we have nowhere to go but to either maintain an ideal solution or trend downward... problem with that position is, if you recall, Euro originally showed it as an all snow event for us of 6-8", then it got warm and we all wanted to shoot someone then it came back to a mix event that morphed into a huge qpf event with taint I doubt that it maintains the perfect solution for the next 7-8 days, so I'll give you that but I like that it has shown a monster event for 3 runs, the ensembles are jumping on board and this last event proved that Euro at this range can still sniff out the big ones and hold onto them I'm encouraged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Models may strengthen the omega block in North Atlantic too and combine with EPO block. But without a typical retrograding signal, a lot of things can change and take away our storm. I'd prefer a retrograding rex block over omega. you sound like you are preparing us for defeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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