stormtracker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 February 13th Part II- The SQL? not bad...not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I assumed he was joking-- maybe he can clarify.I know he was joking and just put pretty much our worst busts of all time on the list. I was just commenting that I don't think 1/22 was that bad. We got screwed yeah, but compared to the rest of the list, it was manageable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I know he was joking and just put pretty much our worst busts of all time on the list. I was just commenting that I don't think 1/22 was that bad. We got screwed yeah, but compared to the rest of the list, it was manageable. Gotcha. We had like an inch from that storm down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Gotcha. We had like an inch from that storm down here. Yeah. think I ended up with close to 4" IMBY. Classic Miller B screw job, and much less than models advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Not trying to hype or anything, but I firmly think we can get a car topper out of this pattern. Pretty favorable if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-winter-i-thought-you-was-dead-not-hardly/650056688374926 DT is all in. He says he's bullish on patterns but not ready to commit. Not exactly "all in". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 He says he's bullish on patterns but not ready to commit. Not exactly "all in". He's committed on the cold pattern but not on a specific storm, which obviously is the right way to go about it. We're still too far out to know which shortwave we should be focusing on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I could see this pattern going to waste if we get bad timing with energy riding the STJ out from the Southwest. If it takes too long then its possible the cold moves out before those storms come. The 00z last night ejected a nice piece of energy and had a pretty big storm taking shape at 240, Today's 12z run ejected a little less energy, and was still able to form a storm. I know its pointless to talk about details, just something I noticed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 He says he's bullish on patterns but not ready to commit. Not exactly "all in". I thought dt's post was pretty good. A nice highlight of the features that can come together during a relatively big window of op without being definitive. Much better than some of his "all in" posts earlier this year. Being definitive at longs leads while in the spotlight opens the door for lots of justified criticism when things go wrong (and they almost always do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I could see this pattern going to waste if we get bad timing with energy riding the STJ out from the Southwest. If it takes too long then its possible the cold moves out before those storms come. The 00z last night ejected a nice piece of energy and had a pretty big storm taking shape at 240, Today's 12z run ejected a little less energy, and was still able to form a storm. I know its pointless to talk about details, just something I noticed though. It could go to waste for a big storm regardless of the yard but the duration of the window seems to be trending towards being long enough for 3 chances for ec events. Wave spacing is tight. Every 2-3 days. I think most of us from nc north will see snow at least once. How much is anyone's guess. I would be a bit surprised (but hardly shocked) if our area gets totally whiffed at this point. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I could see this pattern going to waste if we get bad timing with energy riding the STJ out from the Southwest. If it takes too long then its possible the cold moves out before those storms come. The 00z last night ejected a nice piece of energy and had a pretty big storm taking shape at 240, Today's 12z run ejected a little less energy, and was still able to form a storm. I know its pointless to talk about details, just something I noticed though. Suppression is a concern as well if the PV is any further south. It's still so far out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Suppression is a concern as well if the PV is any further south. It's still so far out at this point.A triple phase is also a remote possibility with the PV dipping southward again and the mjo in phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm not staying up for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 GFS trending on Wed. Only an inch or 2 on the op run but coastal is close enough to keep an eye on the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 GFS trending on Wed. Only an inch or 2 on the op run but coastal is close enough to keep an eye on the period. How we lookin Bob? Do I need to start yapping about GFS ens members? LOL, I've been pretty good about NOT talking much this winter. BTW, this has been a GREAT winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Wonder if the Euro will start depriving us of sleep starting tonight. I was thinking it would have by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 How we lookin Bob? Do I need to start yapping about GFS ens members? LOL, I've been pretty good about NOT talking much this winter. BTW, this has been a GREAT winter. ens are still and will remain a splatter outside of 5 days. Wave spacing is tight and flow is fast. With split flow, timing differences mean so much going down the line. I'm pretty casual about it all right now. By this weekend any mid week threat will become real if there is one. For now it's just armchair observing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 0z Euro is a huge hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 0z Euro is a huge hit... 12-18" for all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Arctic air in combination with a sick southern jet on the euro..This must be the storm that HM talked about in here with the wave undercutting the EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 0z Euro is a huge hit... What about the Tuesday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What about the Tuesday storm? coating to 1/2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Gfs has nothing. More midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro ensembles are east of the op but another improvement from previous run. D11-15 looks like more chances. Pretty wet on the means for the period (1"+) and plenty of cold around. Gefs looks similar @ h5. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Gfs has nothing. More midweek Do I really have to go into the "gfs had (next to) nothing 12 hours before the last storm" routine already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Get this to under 168 hours, it's stay up time. Get it to 144, vested time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Do I really have to go into the "gfs had (next to) nothing 12 hours before the last storm" routine already? Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 god knows the gfs's handling of feb 12/13 has led me to not even look at it in the long range for next week. If the euro has it, that's good enough for me to know its a possiblity. If we end up with a HECS for next weekend, I am guessing the GFS will notice after we have a foot on the ground. On a side note, I was glad to support the site and alan by buying the model suite package on amerwx, but it is super frustrating not having full access to the Euro like others have from their sources. I guess I should have spent my money on weatherbell or the like. Especially in this pattern where the gfs appears to have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro ensembles are east of the op but another improvement from previous run. D11-15 looks like more chances. Pretty wet on the means for the period (1"+) and plenty of cold around. Gefs looks similar @ h5. Good times Looks like about 25% of the members have a massive snowstorm around the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The 6z gfs has the mid-week snow chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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