mitchnick Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 LOL, In 2001 I was 15 years old, I went into a depression after the March bust...Mom ended up taking me to a psychologist thinking I was sad about their recent divorce, honestly I was just sad because of the snow bust and told the therapist that. I bet the doctor still tells jokes about it to her colleagues and family members years later. I've called out of work and missed some tests during college for snowstorms. fearing a loss of power because that happened a lot back then around my house, I bought 2 bunches of firewood they were selling cheap at Lowes since it was the end of the cold season....the storm busted so I didn't use them I don't use my fireplace much, and still have some of that firewood left in my garage the remaining pieces light like a charm after all these years lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 LOL, In 2001 I was 15 years old, I went into a depression after the March bust...Mom ended up taking me to a psychologist thinking I was sad about their recent divorce, honestly I was just sad because of the snow bust and told the therapist that. I bet the doctor still tells jokes about it to her colleagues and family members years later. I've called out of work and missed some tests during college for snowstorms. Right on bro LMAO! That's hardcore. Probably the funniest thing I've read on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 LOL, In 2001 I was 15 years old, I went into a depression after the March bust...Mom ended up taking me to a psychologist thinking I was sad about their recent divorce, honestly I was just sad because of the snow bust and told the therapist that. I bet the doctor still tells jokes about it to her colleagues and family members years later. I've called out of work and missed some tests during college for snowstorms. that was a devastating week after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 that was a devastating week after the storm remember that video, the weather warriors, w/JB,et al. I remember them saying on Friday morning how they thought CHO was ground zero and I was really bummed then Sat 18z NAM run came and really got to know what bummed meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 euro ens are night and day better this run. The mean is more suppressed than the op. Nice 50/50. It kinda looks 09/10ish on the means imo. Doesn't look like the storm would run the coast to NNE from what I'm seeing. ETA: Control run is a destruction and definitely looks 09/10ish on the snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 euro ens are night and day better this run. The mean is more suppressed than the op. Nice 50/50. It kinda looks 09/10ish on the means imo. Doesn't look like the storm would run the coast to NNE from what I'm seeing. it's a nice hit...curious about individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 it's a nice hit...curious about individual members There's going to be a lot of hits. Control run drops like 18"+ dc and approaching 30" in the northern neck. lol ETA: control is like 20"+ through the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 There's going to be a lot of hits. Control run drops like 18"+ dc and approaching 30" in the northern neck. lol ETA: control is like 20"+ through the cities. Do the ensembles have anything interesting for midweek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Do the ensembles have anything interesting for midweek? Not really. Light event. Looks like a ns wave rolls through tues-wed but doesn't connect with gulf moisture. There's a good bit of spread on timing so some members are probably more beefy than the means show. I think we'll probably see some snow tues-wed but how much is anyone's guess (assuming we get any at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Euro ensemble members really aren't that impressive for the late week storm. Only 8 or so showing a decent hit. Plenty of whiffs. Some do look delayed though. I only have member output through d10. Total precip panels shortly after d10 add to the totals. Overall a decent improvement. D11-15 is pretty wet on the means. 1-1.5" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 February 13th Part II- The SQL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 February 13th Part II- The SQL? Put up some big bucks and quit yer chirpin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 euro ens are night and day better this run. The mean is more suppressed than the op. Nice 50/50. It kinda looks 09/10ish on the means imo. Doesn't look like the storm would run the coast to NNE from what I'm seeing. ETA: Control run is a destruction and definitely looks 09/10ish on the snowmap. Ec op is a dream run for me and control is my worst nightmare. Doing ok up here but I am about 30" behind my old location in Maryland right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Top 5 analogs for 12z Euro Ens 3/5/01 12/26/10 1/22/05 3/6/13 2/17/89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Ec op is a dream run for me and control is my worst nightmare. Doing ok up here but I am about 30" behind my old location in Maryland right now. Ens mean at h5 d9-10 is quite the wall of confluence. Precip panels on the means are more suppressed than the op. Verbatim its not a 40n setup. But I'm pretty sure Philly gets a couple feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Top 5 analogs for 12z Euro Ens 3/5/01 12/26/10 1/22/05 3/6/13 2/17/89 lol. I'm sure others will disagree, but perhaps 1/22 doesn't deserve to be on that list....at least we got a few inches. Wasn't a "jump off the ledge" type of bust like the others you listed, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Ens mean at h5 d9-10 is quite the wall of confluence. Precip panels on the means are more suppressed than the op. Verbatim its not a 40n setup. But I'm pretty sure Philly gets a couple feet. No matter what happens, it's safe to assume Philly gets a couple feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-winter-i-thought-you-was-dead-not-hardly/650056688374926 DT is all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Top 5 analogs for 12z Euro Ens 3/5/01 Noooooooooooooooo!!!!Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Ens mean at h5 d9-10 is quite the wall of confluence. Precip panels on the means are more suppressed than the op. Verbatim its not a 40n setup. But I'm pretty sure Philly gets a couple feet. that's my fear for sure. Not worried about a cutter. I have been in the screw zone this year. Just 20 miles too far north for a lot of the storms and 20 miles too south for others. Been fringed all winter every storm. I just want one big dump to end on a good note so I don't have a bad taste in my mouth about this winter and missing an epic season at my old location. Your right the eps looks bad for my area but just have to hope the op run is right and the confluence relaxes a bit as the storm approaches. Not enough to screw your area. It is very possible for dc and me to get hit if the confluence holds long enough then relaxes and allows the storm to come up once east of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 that's my fear for sure. Not worried about a cutter. I have been in the screw zone this year. Just 20 miles too far north for a lot of the storms and 20 miles too south for others. Been fringed all winter every storm. I just want one big dump to end on a good note so I don't have a bad taste in my mouth about this winter and missing an epic season at my old location. Your right the eps looks bad for my area but just have to hope the op run is right and the confluence relaxes a bit as the storm approaches. Not enough to screw your area. It is very possible for dc and me to get hit if the confluence holds long enough then relaxes and allows the storm to come up once east of dc. As Matt phrased it earlier, there's a 1040+ wall of hp the size of russia to the north. My guess is it's overdone and that a suppressed solution probably is the least of our worries. The biggest worry is the existence of the storm to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm going with the storm after the storm as the storm. For now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 There will be a storm somewhere in that window. Looks like a good 5-7 day window and the stj is too active not to get something in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm going with the storm after the storm as the storm. For now at least. welcome aboard finally....now sit back and let me get you a nice cool glass of Kool-Aid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Top 5 analogs for 12z Euro Ens 3/5/01 12/26/10 1/22/05 3/6/13 2/17/89 if someone asked me for a list of the biggest MA busts, 4 out of the 5 on that list would be included....that's just downright funny, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Really liking the long range pattern. HM discussed it earlier, the blocking has returned, except this time there is a southern stream and the MJO has lit up. Any southern stream S/W will have an amazing temperature gradient, and jet entrance region to work with, the sky is the limit!!. However, the PV still needs to stay far enough north not to crush the southern stream, and far enough east to avoid a big phase, so I am not all in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 if someone asked me for a list of the biggest MA busts, 4 out of the 5 on that list would be included....that's just downright funny, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Top 5 analogs for 12z Euro Ens 3/5/01 12/26/10 1/22/05 3/6/13 2/17/89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 lol. I'm sure others will disagree, but perhaps 1/22 doesn't deserve to be on that list....at least we got a few inches. Wasn't a "jump off the ledge" type of bust like the others you listed, lol I assumed he was joking-- maybe he can clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm going with the storm after the storm as the storm. For now at least.What if we get a storm before it but the storm after never becomes a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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